Lisan Al Gaib or Fraud Rautha?
Kevin won't shut up about Dune and breaks down 3 young stars' early performances
Before the season started, my pod-mate Will Hailey proclaimed Wyatt Langford the Lisan al Gaib of the pre-season. And news flash… I’m still obsessed with Dune. So what better way to keep this cinematic marvel in the zeitgeist than by combining it with my other obsession: baseball.
For those not familiar, the Lisan al Gaib is the messianic prophet of the Fremen people who is destined to transform Arrakis to paradise. Paul Atreides, the Lisan Al Gaib in the actual story, is challenged by the Harkonnen Na-Baron Feyd Rautha.
**SPOILER ALERT IF YOU HAVEN’T SEEN DUNE 2** Much to the audience’s dismay, there is a lot of build up for Feyd Rautha only for him to die at the hands of Atreides in the conclusion of the film **SPOILER OVER**
Long story short, Feyd Rautha’s actions make him a fraudulent challenger of the title of the Kwisatz Haderach. In this unorthodox blog post, I will break down which of our young stars are truly the Lisan al Gaib or a Fraud Rautha.
Brett Baty
I have historically been a big Brett Baty guy. And while it is clear the shine on his status as a top prospect has dulled (thanks to the 68 wrC+ amassed in his first cup of tea in the big leagues), his early start to the 2024 season has given fans a reason for optimism. Up through the Mets-Pirates series where Baty tweaked his hamstring, he was rocking a .300+ average and contributing many key hits that spurred the Mets’ recent 13-6 run. In the early going, Baty is hitting .306 with runners on base, and .368 with runners in scoring position, and both his extra-base hits have come with runners on. Defense was also a problem for Baty at the hot corner last year, ranking in the 15th percentile of Outs Above Average (OAA) with -4. This year, he has flipped the switch and sits in the 77th percentile for OAA in the early going, and the eye-test has certainly checked out. On the surface level, the early returns had been encouraging, although the overall production has slipped since his return from the hamstring injury with triple slash through April 24th of .268/.325/.324.
Under the hood, the batted ball data is not super-encouraging. Baty has seen his exit velocity and expected stats turn bluer than the Water of Life.
He has historically maintained a groundball rate well above league average, and he has continued to pound the ball into the ground at a consistent clip, as if he were trying summon Shai’Hulud in the middle of the Citi Field infield. However, there are two aspects of his Statcast page gives me hope: the greatly improved Whiff% and 73rd percentile K%. It’s clear that Baty has emphasized putting the ball in play, and that has shown particularly during the clutch situations I mentioned above. I would make the argument that there has been a conscious approach to emphasize contact over power in instances where Baty does NOT have count leverage, and that he is simply not working himself into the advantageous counts to do damage. In 77 plate appearances, Baty has seen 869 pitches (nice), and 299 were in hitter-advantaged counts, good for 34% of the time. Compare this to Mookie Betts, who is arguably off to the hottest start of any hitter this year; 46% of his pitches seen have been in hitter-advantaged counts. So while its clear that Baty’s “damage numbers” are down, he has not put himself in a position to truly leverage his power via his “A-Swing”. Rather, he has worked himself into unfavorable counts but has put the ball in play better than seasons past, which has been the calling card of hitting coach Eric Chavez, the architect of the Mets 2022 keep-the-line-moving offense. If Baty can start working himself into more dangerous counts, expect an uptick in his exit velocity numbers, and hopefully his slugging percentage.
So is Brett Baty Lisan Al Gaib or Fraud Rautha? On a scale of one to Stilgar, put me down as a cautious believer. As it was written.
Wyatt Langford
Ah yes, the originally heralded Lisan al Gaib. Wyatt Langford caught everyone’s attention this Spring Training with some video-game numbers, triple slashing .365/.423/.714 with 6 HR and 20 RBI. For someone drafted the year prior, to even challenge for a spot on the big-league roster was unprecedented. The early going in the real Senior Circuit has not been kind to Langford, triple slashing .244/.320/.302 with no HR in his first 97 plate appearances.
Taking a deep dive into Langford’s Baseball Savant page (I’m talking past the percentile rankings), it is evident that the big league fastball is giving him trouble. On 4-Seam Fastballs, Langford is batting AND slugging .125 (e.g. no extra base hits) while also sporting a 24% Whiff% and a 39% K%. Taking fastballs completely out of the equation, his batting average and slugging percentage improves to .262 and .357, respectively. Nothing spectacular, but looks a lot better on the Baseball Reference page.
It's no surprise that the Major League fastball is giving Langford issues. There is such an emphasis on velocity in today’s game that makes it even more difficult for Minor Leaguers to make the jump to the big leagues. Langford only had one half season in the Minor Leagues, so it is reasonable that this part of his game is not fully developed given his limited exposure to constant high-velocity four-seamers. But it is clear in the numbers that until Langford can prove that he can catch up to 100 MPH, pitchers will continue to challenge him with the fastball.
So is Wyatt Langford Lisan al Gaib or Fraud Rautha? I will say that Will Hailey bestowing the title of Lisan al Gaib to Langford in the spring was almost as shortsighted as Baron Harkonnen handing control of Arrakis to Rabban. It’s definitely still early, but not being able to hit the fastball spirals further into completely guessing for breaking balls. Until there is significant improvement here, mark him down as a Fraud Rautha.
Evan Carter
It’s hard to imagine that Evan Carter was an even higher-rated prospect than Wyatt Langford in the same Texas Rangers system. As a prospect, he was known for incredible eye at the plate and blazing speed, while also possessing a solid hit tool. Carter’s coming out party was nothing short of herculean, with a standout performance that resulted in a Rangers World Series. Since last years playoffs, where he triple slashed .300/.417/.500, it seemed like there were unrealistic expectations for this rising star.
His 2024 season got off to perhaps an even rougher start than Langford, going 0-for-22 to start the year. Even with zero hits, he managed to walk 6 times and come around to score 5 runs. Since then he has stabilized a bit, bringing his triple slash to .215/.315 /.456, punctuated with a 2-for-4 April 24th night with a homerun and triple. All seems great, right?
If the Gom Jabbar Test of Humanity is hitting over .100 vs. southpaws, Carter has failed miserably. So far in his young career, he has only registered a single hit versus a lefty in the big leagues in 25 plate appearances. Sure, that’s a small sample size, but what is also concerning was the fact that he routinely sat against lefties in the Minors, and managed a mediocre triple slash of .243/.338/.257 against them. It’s a bit unfair to write off a young player’s ability this early on, but it seems like the front office has already made somewhat of a determination of Carter’s ability to hit vs. LHP.
There is a fantastic article by Travis Sawchik from the Score that documents the steep decline of left-handed hitters that are even permitted to face southpaws. In 2023, only 53 left-handed swingers faced left-handed pitchers at least 100 times, which is the lowest mark since 2002. The article goes on to contemplate whether left-handed hitters are actually worse at hitting lefties or if it is a function of left-handed hitters not getting the opportunities. I have always wondered the same thing: “What if Joc Pederson were given a legitimate shot vs. lefties?” And while he’s not a great example (full platoon split wrC+ differential of almost 50 points between vs. RHP and vs. LHP), maybe all Carter needs the proper run against lefties. So far this year, Carter has been given the opportunities versus tough lefties like Justin Steele and Tarik Skubal, while ducking and dodging JP Sears and Chris Sale. It is a delicate balancing act that Bruce Bochy must manage; continuing to develop potential phenoms like Carter while also winning as many baseball games as possible.
So is Evan Carter Lisan Al Gaib or Fraud Rautha? I think if Bochy continues to give Carter the chance to prove he’s not just a platoon bat, he can come through and become the Kwisatz Haderach of the AL.
If you’ve made it this far on this absolutely ridiculous blog post and enjoyed it, please consider subscribing to both our blogs and our podcast, both linked together below for your convenience. The Jon Dowd Burner crew will be in Boston for a Fenway weekend, so follow our misadventures on Twitter @JonDowdBurner.
-KL
Fantastic article Kevin! I hope you do a sequel article by the All Star game. I think the true lisan al gaib has yet to reveal himself.