Last Chance WHO?!

Will Hailey highlights five former top prospects that enter make or break years for their career in 2024

Apr 05, 2024

Elijah Green

Admittedly, saying a 20-year-old is on his last chance after just 95 professional games is aggressive. Almost as aggressive as Green is at the plate. Green has struck out in 41.5% of his plate appearances since being taken 5th overall in the 2022 MLB Draft by the Washington Nationals. There is at least some light at the end of this whiff-filled tunnel in Green’s excellent 14% walk rate and 32 stolen bases, but the Joey Gallo-like line of a .228 AVG and .345 OBP is only palatable when the ball is flying over the fence. Green has just seven professional home runs and in Low-A last year his flyball percentage was 27%, a number that would put him in the bottom 10 qualified hitters in the majors last year. If he does truly possess the 70-grade raw power that scouts believe he does then maybe the 10% HR/FB rate in Fredericksburg was just some tough luck, but his .393 BABIP was certainly some good luck then too.

Photo Credit: Jonathan Newman/The Washington Post

The swing-and-miss is nothing new for Elijah Green. His contact concerns were well documented as a prep player at IMG Academy, but the Nats bet on his physical tools at the top of the draft anyway. However, with top prospects Dylan Crews and James Wood entering the DC outfield soon plus Lane Thomas and future center fielder CJ Abrams (side eye emoji) already there, the Nats do not need to commit to Green’s development if he is not a future major leaguer. Pitching will only get better and NO ONE makes the majors after whiffing this much in the low minors. Even Joey Gallo “only” struck out 34.5% of the time in his minor league career, but he did so posting a .333 ISO. The Nationals need their top draft picks to hit to get out of this rebuild, but Elijah Green does not seem to be on a path to being a part of Washington’s future.

Forrest Whitley

When Forrest Whitley was drafted, Barack Obama was president, Shawn Mendes’ “Treat You Better” topped the billboard charts, and we were all anticipating the release of Finding Dory in theaters later that month. Whitley made five straight MLB top prospect lists including being listed in the top-20 from 2018 to 2020. Why? STUFF. The San Antonio, Texas native struck out a ridiculous 169 batters in his first 111 pro innings. Things started to take a turn in February of 2018, however, when Whitley was suspended 50 games for use of an illegal substance. He did bounce back with eight great starts in AA Corpus Christi and six dominant starts in the AFL, but in 2019 his turn continued, he spun, and he crashed.

Photo Credit: Diamond Images/Getty Images

Whitley worked a 7.99 ERA in 2019 with a nearly 16% walk rate, lost 2020 to Covid, had TJ in 2021, returned to a 6.53 ERA and 14% walk rate in 2022, and finally a 5.70 ERA with 17 free passes in 30 innings last year. Staying on the field has been as big a concern as the walks with just 267 innings since being drafted in 2016, but the Astros have not given up hope. Finger inflammation kept him out of Spring Training, but the Astros were hoping he could compete for a middle relief role on the big league club. 2024 will be key to see if Whitley’s elite stuff can play up in the bullpen or if this is it for the former top prospect.

Diego Cartaya

The catcher position in Chavez Ravine is spoken for for the next decade after Will Smith signed a $140 million extension last week. Smith is one of the league’s best hitting backstops and has been consistently…fine…behind the dish, so it is no surprise the Dodgers committed to him (although ten years is a bit of a surprise). Cartaya made the decision easier after putting up an absolute stinker in 2023. The Venezuelan slashed .189/.278/.379 in 93 games at AA Tulsa after coming into the season as the #14 prospect in baseball, making the top 30 for the second straight year. Going into 2024, Cartaya is off the list and down from #1 to #9 in the Dodgers system with fellow catcher Dalton Rushing replacing him at the top spot. While a year of a 71 wRC+ is tough, Cartaya did go yard 19 times showing that the raw power from his 6’3” 219 lbs frame is for real. Scouts have been generally neutral to positive on the defensive upside, but he is clearly not in the defensive caliber of top prospects like Drew Romo whose glove has moved him through the minors quickly despite some average-at-best offense numbers.

Photo Credit: Gail Verderico

Cartaya is a tweener: not enough defense to be worth committing to even if the offense is bad, but not enough offense to move to a new position. LA has Will Smith in the bigs, Rushing rushing to the show, and promising young catchers Yeiner Fernandez and Thayron Liranzo in the low minors. If Cartaya does not bounce back in 2024 he may not have a spot in the Dodgers future.

Brennen Davis

Davis is another prep draftee whose name was a mainstay on the MLB Top Prospects list, making the top 100 every year from 2020 to 2023 and peaking at #15 heading into the 2022 season. Davis ended 2021 with a .260/.375/.494 slash line in 100 games across three levels, finishing his season at AAA Iowa. He seemed like a great bet to make his big league debut the next season, but then the struggles began. Davis hit .180 with a near 30% K rate before getting back surgery in June of 2022. 2023 was more of the same as he failed to exceed the Mendoza line for a second straight year. After a strong 5-game Spring Training sample, Davis was once again optioned to AAA to start the season in 2024.

Photo Credit: David Durochik/Diamond Images/Getty Images

Is this hell? No, it’s Iowa. Spending parts of four straight seasons at AAA is brutal for a former can’t miss prospect. With Ian Happ, Seiya Suzuki, and Cody Bellinger manning the outfield as well as the top three spots in the Cubs order there is little path to a role for Davis in Chicago if he does turn things around. Not to mention outfielders Pete Crow-Armstrong, Kevin Alcantara, and Owen Caissie each own spots on the Top 100 prospect list and are knocking on the door. The Cubs have clearly forgiven two tough seasons in a row for Davis, but one more chance may be all he gets.

Carter Stewart

This one is for the sickos. The real sickos. The 2018 draft nuts and NPB fan sickos. It is completely reasonable to say “WHO?!” after reading the name Carter Stewart. Stewart was the 8th overall pick in the 2018 MLB Draft by the Atlanta Braves but did not sign after the Braves offered a below slot deal following concerns in Stewart’s medicals. Stewart spent a year dominating at the JUCO level intending to enter the 2019 draft, but instead chose the unorthodox route of signing a $7 million deal with the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks of the Nippon Professional Baseball league in Japan. After three years primarily pitching in the Japanese Western League, a Japanese minor league, Stewart threw 77.1 innings in the NPB accumulating a 3.38 ERA and 67 Ks. In high school Stewart’s curveball was highly touted by MLB scouts with a spin rate so elite it would have been best in the majors. The strikeout stuff is there as the curve continues to be devastating alongside a fastball and a splitter, but control has been an issue for Stewart who has a 12.7% walk rate as a pro.

Photo Credit: KYODO

Stewart just signed a two-year extension with the Hawks, but will not be eligible to be an international free agent until after the 2028 season, meaning he will need to be posted by the Hawks if he wants to return stateside. Stewart will make $5 each of the next two seasons, making him one of the highest paid players in the league. 2024 will be hugely important to Stewart who is being paid like a star heading into his first full NPB season. If he performs like a star he may find opportunity in the majors, but if he does not curb his control issues he could find himself in the Eastern Hemisphere for the long haul.

-WH

P.S. In case you missed it, in our last podcast we pick our Division, Wild Card, and World Series winners.