Kyle Manzardo's breakout is here.
Kyle Manzardo was known as one of the best first-base prospects, and seems to be fullfilling that promise after 155 Major-League games.
Legendary, Minor-League Manzardo.
Kyle Manzardo was drafted by the Tampa Bay Rays in the second round of the 2021 draft, and quickly impressed everyone with one of the most impressive debut seasons ever seen by a prospect. He played 93 games - 63 at High-A and 30 at Double-A, and hit .327 with 22 home runs, 26 doubles and finished the 2022 season with a 1.043 OPS.
It wasn’t just the numbers, it was the underlying metrics: Manzardo’s 14.6% BB%, 16.4% K% and 7.6% SwStr% all pointed towards a sky-high ceiling, and it resulted in a swift promotion to Triple-A at the start of the 2023 season. He shot up prospect rankings, ranking fourth in the Rays system in front of young superstar Junior Caminero, and quickly established himself as one of the must-watch hitting prospects.
However, the 2023 season didn’t go as hoped. Manzardo struggled at Triple-A, playing 73 games to a .238/.342/.442 slash line and only hit 11 home runs over this period. His underlying metrics show he was still hitting the ball extremely hard while maintaining elite contact rates. His .269 BABIP indicates some bad luck was involved, and it looked like a matter of time before he would start getting results like he did before.
However, the Rays decided to move Manzardo in a swap deal for starter Aaron Civale, a trade that could age like milk if Manzardo keeps developing..
The Guardians instantly got the most out of Manzardo - In his 21 Triple-A games after the trade, Manzardo hit six home runs and played to a .938 OPS. This trend continued into 2024 - Manzardo hit 20 home runs in 83 games and finished the season with a .948 OPS in 2024. Between 2023 and 2024, Manzardo made a few notable improvements:
BB% from 13.3% to 16.8% - a career-high.
K% down from 19.3% to 18.4%.
Chase% down from 23.7% to 22.3%.
Improved his Barrel% from 9.6% to 12.6%.
And the list goes on. Overall, Manzardo managed to improve across the board. He was hitting the ball harder, whiffing less and this resulted in, as we can see by the full-season numbers, a 2024 season that put him back on the top of first-base prospect lists. It was evident that Manzardo, despite his age, had very little weaknesses in his profile as a hitter. Manzardo was called up to the majors in May 2024, but would spend more time at Triple-A later on in the season.
Major League Manzardo: All he needed, was time.
2024: Up & Down
Kyle Manzardo eventually made his MLB debut for the Cleveland Guardians in May 2024. And unfortunately, Manzardo struggled to impress. He played 29 games between May and June to a .207/.241/.329 slash line and .571 OPS, had a wrc+ of 59, a career-low Hard-Hit% of 36.7% and a career-high 26.4% K% and career-low 3.4% BB%. At a position that relies more on offensive output than anything else, Manzardo’s start was absolutely not in line with his minor-league history.
So he got sent down after those 29 games. Not a shame, but not what most were expecting. He then proceeded to play 43 games to an .858 OPS at Triple-A, walked as much as he struck out and hit 7 home runs. So.. he got the call again.
And he impressed: He played 23 games from September 1st to the end of the regular season to a .270/.333/.540 slash line with five home runs, an improved BB% of 8.4%, an 11.1% Barrel% and 44.4% Hard-Hit%, which was way more in line of what we were expecting from him. In the end, he finished the season with a .234/.282/.421 slash line and .703 OPS in 53 games. However, there were obvious signs there was more to come from him.
2025: Step-by-step, the Manzalorian is on his way.
After his very hot end to the 2024 season, expectations were pretty high around Manzardo. Pre-All-Star Break, Manzardo played 82 games to a .217/293/.442 slash line and 735 OPS, with 15 home runs and a wrc+ of 102. He was still a league-average bat, but there was progress across the board compared to his 2024 season:
Chase% improved from 27.7% to 26.2%.
BB% improved from 5.8% to 9.7%.
Hard-Hit% improved from 40% to 41.9%.
Barrel% improved from 9.5% to 12.6%.
And that’s not all. As shown by his minor-league numbers, Manzardo wasn’t just a fastball-only hitter: He did damage to all pitch types and managed to keep his Whiff% below 30% on most, proving his well-roundedness as a hitter. However, pitch quality in the MLB is a lot higher than it is at Triple-A, so Manzardo needed time to adjust.
In his first season, Manzardo struggled against anything that wasn’t a fastball. In 2025, he has decreased his Whiff% on breaking pitches ever so slightly from 35.1% in 2024 to 34.4% in 2025, and significantly decreased his Whiff% on Offspeed pitches, from 33.5% in 2024 to 28.8% in 2025. What’s even more impressive is the damage he’s doing on these pitches - he has a SLG% over .450 against all three pitch types, showing off that ability to do damage against all pitches.
But the best was yet to come. Since the start of the second half, Manzardo has been on another planet, playing 22 games to a .329/.435/.629 slash line and 1.064 OPS, with a fantastic 14.9% Barrel% and 44.7% Hard-Hit%.
A few notable changes:
Decreased his Whiff% to his minor-league norm of 21-22%.
Decreased his swing length from 7.5 to 7.2, which is right below league-average.
Improved his Z-Contact% from 80.3% to 86.5%.
Has been more aggressive - 31.6% O-Swing% is a career-high across all levels.
Improved his BB% to his minor-league norm of 12.9%.
Saw a consistent decrease in his rolling K% down to 24% on Augsut 15th.
What’s impressive is the combination of both: Manzardo is actually chasing slightly more outside the zone over the last four weeks, but has managed to trim his Whiff% and resulting K% considerably.
However, some threats in his profile remain. Manzardo has been struggling against LHP at the MLB-level, and to this day, still is. His .190 BA makes him susceptible to a potential platoon role in the future in case this doesn’t improve. At the moment, he’s actually putting up league-average producting v LHP with a 102 wrc+, helped by his .494 SLG%.
With more than 35 games to go in the 2025 season, Manzardo is sitting on 21 home runs and could surpass the 30-home run mark if his second-half hot streak continues for the rest of the season. The 25 year-old has now played a total of 156 career-MLB games to a .240/.311/.465 slash line, and is only improving in both his production and advanced metrics.
This once again shows development isn’t linear, players need time and each player develops differently. Manzardo’s .776 OPS is well above league-average, and with his minor-league production in the back of our minds, it’s highly likely Manzardo improves by a considerable margin in the next two years. Although he might only hit for average, his ability to get on base or deliver elite power is going to make him an MLB mainstay for a long time, with a ceiling similar to a certain Kyle Schwarber.
Thank you for reading.