Junior Caminero: The Next Young Star in Major League Baseball
Elite bat speed, raw power, and rapid in-season adjustments have Caminero looking like the Rays’ next franchise cornerstone.
A Star in the Making
Junior Caminero entered 2025 with massive expectations—and rightfully so. At just 21 years old, he had already earned a spot inside most Top 10 third base rankings, with many analysts placing him comfortably in the Top 5. Comparisons to Manny Machado, his childhood idol, felt less like hype and more like foreshadowing.
The tools have always been loud. Caminero has the fastest swing in Major League Baseball, and he proved in the minors that his bat speed wasn’t just measurable—it translated. He logged multiple batted-ball events over 117 mph, including one on May 25th of 2024 that reached 117.2 mph, which would’ve ranked as the fifth-hardest hit ball in the majors at the time. Early in the year, he had more 100+ mph batted balls than eight full MLB teams.
In his 2024 cameo, the numbers against four-seamers were absurd: a .361 AVG, .345 xBA, .778 SLG, and a .499 wOBA with a 70.4% hard-hit rate over just 40 plate appearances. That kind of damage hinted at elite upside—now, we’re watching that upside materialize.
Establishing a Baseline
Through his first 55 games and 227 plate appearances in 2025, Caminero has posted:
13 HR
30 R
37 RBI
.262/.291/.505 slashline
.340 wOBA
.336 xwOBA
124 wRC+
1.1 fWAR
Those numbers may not scream superstar just yet, but the context matters—he's only 21, playing his first full MLB season, and still adjusting. Producing at a 124 wRC+ clip while learning on the job is a win in itself. And the surface stats only tell part of the story.
A Breakout Stretch That Changed Everything
Over the last two weeks, Caminero has flipped the switch. In 12 games, he’s exploded for:
5 HR
17 RBI (leads MLB over that span)
.354/.380/.813 slashline
.458 ISO
.502 wOBA
239 wRC+
0.9 fWAR
He recently earned AL Player of the Week honors alongside Cal Raleigh, and in a game vs. Houston, he became the first player in Rays history to record 4+ extra-base hits and 5+ RBIs in a single game. That outing ranks among the most dominant in team history and signaled that Caminero has arrived.
What the Underlying Metrics Say
Take one look at his batted-ball profile, and the potential becomes obvious:
Average EV: 91.7 mph ⬆️ (from 89.7)
Hard-Hit%: 50.3% ⬆️ (from 45.7%)
Average Bat Speed: 78.1 mph — best in MLB
These are the types of indicators you normally see from a seasoned slugger in their prime, not a 21-year-old with less than 300 MLB plate appearances. Caminero blends top-of-the-scale bat speed with fluidity and balance, which allows him to create damage without selling out for power.
Maturity Beyond His Years
One of the most impressive elements of Caminero’s game is his approach. He’s shown an ability to drive the ball to all fields, particularly the opposite way—one of the most encouraging traits in a young hitter. He’s made real gains in his swing decisions and contact quality, cutting his strikeout rate and increasing his zone contact rate significantly.
Given his age, he should still be in Double-A or Triple-A. Instead, he’s not only surviving—he’s adjusting in real time and excelling at the highest level. The advanced approach is no longer potential. It’s here now.
The Year-to-Year Leap 📈
| Metric | 2024 | 2025 | Change
| Avg. Exit Velo | 89.7 mph | 91.7 mph | ⬆️ +2.0 mph
| Hard-Hit% | 45.7% | 50.3% | ⬆️ +4.6%
| xBA | .238 | .267 | ⬆️ +.029
| xwOBA | .301 | .336 | ⬆️ +.035
| SLG | .424 | .505 | ⬆️ +.081
| Whiff% | 31.7% | 20.0% | ⬇️ -11.7%
| Z-Contact% | 77.5% | 87.4% | ⬆️ +9.9%
| Strikeout Rate | 21.5% | 19.4% | ⬇️ -2.1%
| ICR | 31.5% | 38.2% | ⬆️ +6.7%
| IPA% | 22.6% | 29.1% | ⬆️ +6.5%
| Max Exit Velocity | 116.3 mph | 116.5 mph | ⬆️ +0.2 mph
The whiff% drop alone is game-changing. For a player with Caminero’s raw power, simply making more contact unlocks an entirely new ceiling—and we’re already seeing what that looks like.
Splits That Tell a Story
Caminero has been especially dominant against right-handers in 2025:
.279/.310/.544, .265 ISO, 142 wRC+
His production against lefties has lagged slightly (86 wRC+), but his 2024 reverse splits suggest that improvement is on the way, especially now that he’s seeing the ball so well.
At Steinbrenner Field, Caminero hasn’t missed a beat:
9 HR, .304/.329/.563, .892 OPS, 157 wRC+
While his home success is noteworthy, it was his impressive series in Houston that demonstrated his ability to replicate this success on the road.
Breaking Down the Pitch Type Improvements
Caminero has sharpened his approach against both velocity and spin.
vs Fastballs
BA: ⬆️ .262 → .284
SLG: ⬆️ .477 → .559
Avg EV: ⬆️ 90.7 → 93.0 mph
Whiff%: ⬇️ 23.2% → 16.1%
vs Breaking Balls
Whiff%: ⬇️ 42.5% → 27.9%
He’s seeing spin better, reacting quicker, and making smarter swing decisions. These kinds of adjustments don’t usually happen midseason, especially not for someone just playing their first full season.
Two Small Areas to Improve
Despite all the positives, Caminero does have room to grow.
First, his launch angle has dipped, leading to a high number of ground balls and GIDPs—he currently leads the league. Second, he still isn’t walking much, which drags down his on-base percentage. Neither of these is a long-term red flag, but they’re areas where progress could unlock even more value.
Given how quickly he's adjusted in other areas, it's fair to bet on those improvements arriving soon.
Franchise Talent in Bloom
Junior Caminero is not just holding his own at age 21—he’s flourishing. His bat speed, power, and swing decisions are already elite, and he’s making meaningful in-season adjustments that suggest superstar potential. The Rays may have found their next franchise player.
If this is just the beginning, baseball fans should get used to hearing his name in All-Star and MVP conversations for years to come.
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