Juan Soto is NOT as Overpaid as You Think
Breaking Down the on AND off field value of the Mets signing Juan Soto
Juan Soto agreed to a 15-year - $765 million contract with escalators that could reach $805 million in total value with the New York Mets on December 8, 2024. Steve Cohen & the Mets inked the multi-generational free agent to the richest contract in professional sports history. The deal currently has a $51 million AAV, but will likely escalate to $55 million after 2029. Before we break down just how much Soto is actually worth, I want to highlight just how good Juan Soto is, not only for his age but for his first 6-7 years in MLB.
There will quite possibly never be another player of Juan Soto’s caliber on the free-agent market again. When I say caliber, that includes his combination of performance at the MLB level + his age; let’s run through some recent superstars and their free agencies (not extensions). I will include the player’s age when signing and fWAR in this format (age/WAR). Bryce Harper (26/28.7), Manny Machado (26/29.8), Corey Seager (27/21.9), Carlos Correa (27/27.4), Aaron Judge (30/35.4) & Shohei Ohtani (29/31.3 total fWAR). Now, this is Juan Soto… (26/36.3). Soto is as young as anyone on this list and has the best track record to this point in his career.
There really is no player like Juan Soto in this era of MLB history. He’s a unicorn in his own right. Players don’t reach MLB at 19 years old anymore, let alone dominate the way he has. For perspective, Juan Soto had 494 plate appearances in his debut season (2018) at the age of 19. He posted a wRC+ of 146 & 3.7 WAR. In his age 20 season (2019), he played 150 games with a 146 wRC+ (career-worst) & 5.5 WAR for the World Series champion Nationals.
Some other players some might bring up are Vladimir Guerrero Jr. & Rafael Devers, who debuted extremely young and became a star. Vlad Jr. debuted as a 20-year-old, while Devers’ first full season came as a 21-year-old. Both are great young players in MLB, but neither come close to Soto’s production. In simple terms, Guerrero Jr.’s career wRC+ is 137, and his batting run value (via Fangraphs) is 154.6. Devers sports a career 125 wRC+ & 125.1 batting run value.
On the other hand, Soto has an outstanding career 157 wRC+ with an absurd 290.6 batting run value. Soto’s batting run value or overall production, one might say, is more than Guerrero Jr.’s & Devers’ combined. That’s just how special Juan Soto is. Oh, and he is the youngest of these three players.
Unquantifiable (?) Off Field Value
Soto’s on field value won’t come close to his contract’s true value of $805 million. However, there are other factors in play. There’s unquantifiable value in signing Juan Soto that goes beyond his on field production. I wrote last year regarding J.D. Martinez that his value came from his knowledge & veteran leadership he would bring to a club full of young, up & coming players.
A list of the unquantifiable value that signing Juan Soto brings to the Mets includes, but is not limited to…
Making a statement to the rest of the league that the Mets can win a big-ticket free agent instead of being used as a stalking horse
Winning a once in a multi-generational player
Adding a 2nd or primary face of the franchise
Pulling him from the incumbent crosstown rival Yankees
The Mets have notably come in “2nd place” on multiple free agents in recent years. Yoshinobu Yamamoto in 2023, Carlos Correa in 2022 when he chose the Giants first, and Trevor Bauer in 2021. They were able to bounce back by signing Starling Marte, Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, and Kodai Senga across multiple offseasons as well.
In the cases of Yamamoto and Bauer, it felt as if the Mets were used as stalking horses to drive the price up for the favored Los Angeles Dodgers. Many Mets fans felt that history was repeating itself with Juan Soto, thinking Steve Cohen’s deep pockets and interest were being used to milk the incumbent Yankees for as much money as they would give. The Mets finally prevailed and won a big-time free agent that wasn’t older. It was important for the franchise and fan base to know that the Mets are no longer being constantly used as a stalking horse.
As I’ve made clear, I think Soto is a once-in-a multi-generational & borderline once-in-a-lifetime free agent. Being the team that wins out on him, signing him for his prime(?), and for the rest of his career, is massive. Juan Soto will no doubt enter the hall of fame wearing a Mets cap along with Francisco Lindor.
Soto now stands next to Francisco Lindor as the two faces of the Mets for the long-term future. Lindor is the leader of the club while Soto brings a veteran presence and a lead by example archetype. As Steve Cohen looks to revitalize the area around Citi Field with his $8 billion proposal, the faces of the Mets franchise will presumably be promoted throughout the development.
Lastly, signing Soto away from the incumbent Yankees is a luxurious cherry on top. I, for one, don’t take the crosstown rivalry too deep, but Yankee fans’ arrogance was a bit too much during this saga not to gloat a bit. Regardless, it is a big deal to beat them for a free agent. They’re the historical team that has been able to buy whatever stars they really wanted for the better part of the last hundred years. The little brother moniker is something the Mets community wants to shed. Beating the Yankees for Juan Soto, of all players, is a big first step toward doing that. People might be annoyed by that notion, but it’s the truth.
The sole act of inking Juan Soto to a long term contract brought all this value back to the Mets. From the public side of things, it’s hard to quantify, if even possible. It’s subjective really, but I would expect the Mets to have forecasted the financial value of each of these benefits.
Personally, I think the ballpark figure would be the $75 million signing bonus, give or take. That’s already paid off in my mind, so his on-field value does not have to be stressed as much. Now we can make a rough estimate of Soto’s break-even value for his on-field production.
On Field Value - Ted Williams Sized Shoes to Fill?
If we infer the Mets will void Soto’s opt-out, the total value of the contract will be $805 million. I will estimate the off-field value above to cover the $75 million signing bonus Soto received. This leaves $730 million as a relative breakeven value for Soto’s on-field production. Accounting for the $8 million/win valuation, Soto’s break even on-field production, comes out to be 91.25 WAR over the 15-year contract, which is an average of 6.08 wins/year.
I don’t bring up Ted Williams because I think Soto will be like Ted Williams. However, Ted Williams had a 93.6 WAR in the final 15 years of his career from the ages of 27-41. Williams’ production after returning from World War II is just over what Soto needs to fulfill the value of his contract.
The following is an excerpt from my unreleased offseason plan for the Mets:
“I will start off by saying I am not necessarily comparing Juan Soto to Ted Williams, but I think there is something to talk about with one of the best hitters of all time in every aspect. 521 career home runs with a 20.6% BB rate and 7.2% K rate, Ted Williams epitomized being an elite power hitter with elite plate discipline. Williams notoriously missed some of his youth years to World War II. He lost his age 24-26 seasons while serving the country as a pilot from 1943-1945. Once he returned stateside and continued his career at age 27, Williams posted a 93.6 WAR. Like I said, this is not a comparison, but it is a tool to help devise a blueprint for how Soto’s career may play out.
An offensively fueled career, Williams was forced to play the field his entire career since the designated hitter would not be introduced in MLB until 1973. I cannot explain the intricacies of how his defensive value is calculated, but the good people at Fangraphs do it, and I am in no position to argue their work. The “value” section page on Fangraphs shows that Williams was not that bad of a fielder until he had a big falloff at the age of 39. From age 27 on, Williams amassed a -102.3 defensive runs. That’s about -10 WAR in defense. He was so good offensively that it more than offset his defense. Today, there are so many ways to calculate, measure, and adjust to a player’s strengths and weaknesses.
As long as Soto can play the field, and can be optimized to minimize his negative value, he should be on track for a bit worse fielding value. In 2024, the positional value for right and left field for a full season is -7.5 defensive runs. The positional value for a designated hitter is -17.5 defensive runs. So long as Soto is better than -10 runs, he’s more valuable in the field. Outside of a terrible 2022, where he had -14.1 runs, Soto has not been worse than the -2.8 defensive runs. His -2.3 runs in 47 games in 2020 were tracking to be his second-worst defensive season, but I cannot speculate on that. By the way, he had a positive 1.3 defensive runs in 2024. I know he was only 25, and the point is about tracking the rest of his career, but it is not fantastical to believe that the Mets can keep Soto on the field and maintain a defensive run value greater than -10. The other option is to move Soto to 1B in the future and work with him to be a positive defender a la the Freddie Freeman route. This is fairly unlikely to occur, but I do think Soto is capable if he works for it. He is not the same athlete Bryce Harper is, but he can still limit negative value at 1B to keep his overall value higher.
Defensive run value is what Fangraphs uses to calculate WAR based on UZR. I do not necessarily think that is the best measure of defensive play, but for continuity, that is what I am using to forecast the rest of his career.
Back to the calling card, Ted Williams and Juan Soto share an elite feel for hitting and the strike zone like no other. This is why I am using Ted Williams as a historical context. I wholeheartedly believe that Soto’s elite eye and bat-to-ball skills are what will allow him to age better than most, if not every player. I also think Soto has the mentality to be the best, but that’s not a tangible metric I can focus on. In my opinion, it’s feasible to believe Soto will be a productive hitter late into his 30s. The road that Ted Williams’ career paved is one that Soto can follow. I just won’t be expecting him to carry the same level of production. However, I do think he can be a multi-win player late into his 30s so long as he’s healthy and playing every day.”
Loose Career Forecast
This is by no means an exact science, and it may include some wishful thinking. However, I will reinstate that this is assuming a clean bill of health for the remainder of Soto’s career. It’s been established that player’s like Juan Soto just do not come around often. He’s on track to be an all-time great player. His career slash line, wOBA & wRC+, are closest to the likes of Jeff Bagwell. Forecasting his future production is not simple. He has elite tools that can age very well. No one knows if they will or they won’t, but he’s also so good, he may not have even reached his prime yet! What could we see out of him these next five years during the first part of his contract? Can he keep building on a career year in 2024 in which he was just 25 years old? Hopefully, the answer is yes. For now, my forecast is as follows.
Ages 26-29: 28 WAR (7 wins/year)
Ages 30-33: 22 WAR (5.5 wins/year)
Ages 34-36: 12.6 WAR (4.2 wins/year)
Ages 37-40: 11.2 WAR (2.8 wins/year)
Ages 26-40: 73.8 WAR (4.92 wins/year)
Career Value
Our very loose, not scientifically backed forecast for Juan Soto lands us at 73.2 WAR over his 15-year career. That equates to a $590.4 million valuation for his on-field production. Adding in the $75 million from the off-field value raises the total to $665.4 million.
The Mets acquired a future Hall of Famer and franchise-altering player for $805 million. They may have overpaid by $139.6 million, but that only comes out to $9.3 million/year.
From what I see, the misunderstanding of Soto’s contract is often due to the lack of perspective regarding the importance of his age & the length of the contract. Many people might say the Mets overpaid for Soto by almost $140 million using this forecast. In reality, the Mets barely got him, and this offer was necessary to sign him. If you told me I get to have Juan Soto on my team for the rest of his career, and all I have to do is overpay him $9.3 million/year, I’d say, “Where do I sign?”
The same applied to the overall total value. People think he’s paid more than Ohtani. Yes, over the course of 15 years, he is, but Ohtani’s contract carried a $70 million AAV, while Soto’s maxes out at $55 million. I know Ohtani has deferrals, so his present value AAV is just over $46 million. That was the number Soto was looking to beat in free agency. I do believe Ohtani could have gotten or at least close to his $70 million AAV without deferrals. The point is that comparing these two doesn’t make much sense. Ohtani is a polarizing and one-of-a-kind player. Soto’s interest revolves around acquiring him before his season at age 26. Ohtani’s first season with the Dodgers was his age-29 season. For context, Ohtani’s first MVP season happened when he was 26.
I’ve seen many people say that Soto was not even worth $600 million. His on-field production might not warrant that much money, but it could. Regardless, the off-field value that came with signing him was specific only to the Mets. This provided them with more incentive to sign him with the supplementary value. I do believe Soto is a fine enough athlete to be able to handle first base in the future without requiring a move to DH. It will immensely help his value in the long term if he can be a productive first baseman.
Looking Down The Line
Regarding how Soto will age, it’s a complete crap shoot. Health is of the utmost importance obviously. The healthier he stays as he gets older, the more likely he is to continue producing at a high level. Looking at the best hitters since 1985, there was no obvious match for Soto. All the outfielders were great athletes and defenders, while most of the others were either steroid users or first basemen.
Two players that stood out were Jeff Bagwell and Chipper Jones. Bagwell provides a glimpse of what Soto could look like with peak offensive production, while Jones shows a more level career progression. Jones was able to continue producing at a high level through the age of 40. Despite that, in the final 12 years of his career, Bagwell’s offensive run value was just under 20 runs higher than Jones’ in his final 15 years.
Jones carried a 71.6 WAR in his final 15 years, while Bagwell carried a 65.9 WAR in his final 12 years. Jones fits the mold of my forecast better than any other player, which is meant to provide a rough idea of what kind of player Soto has to be to fulfill that projection. If you get a player like that, performing the way Jones did late into his 30s, I do not think anyone is going to be upset with the contract, given all Soto will help bring to the franchise.
Outlook
I’m not going to say that Soto is not overpaid, but his value will come a lot closer than people think. He was worth going all out for. With the way the game is advancing, the chances of seeing another player like Soto in the next 20+ years are slim, to say the least. This is the player you’re okay with overpaying for, especially since it’s not as much as many people think.
Breaking down the contract as well as what kind of future Soto needs to have in order to fulfill his contract was a great look into the perspective into just how great he is, as well as seeing how he compares to so many all-time great players. This article is by no means a declaration, it is purely in theory, not in practice. Soto’s career probably won’t play out exactly this way but I think he’s more capable than most realize.
Hopefully, I changed your mind about how deserving Juan Soto was of his contract. Or, I at least convinced you he’s not as overpaid as you think. Feel free to express your thoughts in the comments here or on X, where I am much more active @ OCBaseball814.
Really good stuff, Mikey. Great work.
Absolutely Beautiful Mikey!