Jorge Soler or J.D. Martinez? My Preference for the Mets 2024 Designated Hitter
Jorge Soler or J.D. Martinez? My Preference for the Mets 2024 Designated Hitter
Long ago, when J.D. Martinez came to Detroit, he enrolled in Miguel Cabrera’s school of hitting. As Miggy’s career has come to a close, the “book of hitting” has been passed on to Martinez. No current player could teach and spill hitting knowledge like J.D. can. Naturally, with this elite wealth of knowledge comes plus performance. For me, his on-field production is really just a bonus. The way I see it, what he provides in the clubhouse, and the opportunity to learn from him presented to the young core is priceless. These intangibles make any contract worth it.
For teams looking at designated hitter options, Jorge Soler and J.D. Martinez are the standout options with Justin Turner as a lone third. Soler, the youngest, is looking for a multi-year deal commanding more average money than Martinez and Turner. Soler walks at a great rate, while his chase, whiff, and K rate are all far ahead of Martinez’s. As I mentioned above, youth is on Soler’s side and bodes well for replicating his performance. Martinez is 36 and will likely regress next season.
Considering that Martinez continues to excel in batted ball statcast metrics, as well as his reputation as one of the great hitters of the last decade, I would say there is a decent chance that age becomes somewhat of an exception for him. I’m willing to gamble that his production wouldn’t regress significantly in one year, even though I already stated that his performance is just a bonus to me. Soler, on the other hand, does not quite have the metrics to match but has been a consistent home run hitter since 2019.
Park Factor?
Some things that do not get talked about much in the J.D. or Soler conversation is 1) both players were marginally better on the road this year, and 2) Citi Field (Mets’ Stadium) is tied for the worst park factor rating in MLB with the T-Mobile Park (Mariners’ Stadium). However, T-Mobile Park has a superior home run rating (99) than Citi Field (95). A notable difference here is within the stadiums Soler and Martinez played in. LoanDepot Park (Marlins), where Soler played, has a home run rating of 80 (3rd worst in MLB) while Dodger Stadium, where Martinez played, has a rating of 126 (tied for best in MLB). Despite this, LoanDepot Park far exceeds Citi Field in hits, singles, doubles, and triples along with a better park factor of 98 to Citi Field’s 94. To go one step farther, I decided to add up the home run factors of all five stadiums in both the NL East and NL West and find their mean home run factor. The NL East had a mean score of 100.4 home run factor while the NL West had a 101 home run factor. The overall home run factor of the five most common stadiums for both Soler and Martinez are roughly the same.
The Future
The point I’m trying to make is that home runs are not everything; and from a complete and whole standpoint, if the Mets are to sign either of these players, some form of regression should be expected when you move to the worst ballpark for right handed hitters. Alvarez, Baty, Vientos and other young hitters could benefit tremendously from Martinez’s tutelage. Even the Mets’ stars like Alonso, Lindor, Nimmo and McNeil can learn from him. Since this team is setting up to have Vientos and/or Baty become the future DH for 2025 and beyond, Martinez makes far more sense on a one year deal. Soler might help the Mets win some games in 2024, but Martinez can help everyone else win the Mets games for years to come.