Jonathan Aranda Is Putting Together An All-Star Season
From Breakout Candidate To Potential All-Star
Jonathan Aranda was my main breakout pick to begin the 2025 season, due to his ability to barrel up the ball as well as anyone in Major League Baseball. He's seeing first-pitch strikes 12.1% less often than he did in 2024, and while the pitch mix he's facing hasn’t changed much, his results have taken a significant step forward. There were signs that Aranda could deliver a breakout year in 2025! In fact, in 2024, his Barrels per Plate Appearance percentage (minimum 50 plate appearances) was 11.2%, ranking sixth in all of baseball.
So, how has he looked in 2025? Through his first 218 plate appearances, Aranda has hit 7 home runs, scored 32 runs, and driven in 34. He owns an 11.0% walk rate, a 23.9% strikeout rate, a .324 batting average, a .413 on-base percentage, and a .500 slugging percentage. His .401 weighted on-base average (wOBA), 167 wRC+, and 1.8 wins above replacement (fWAR) just show how productive he’s been. Even when he's not hitting, Aranda continues to work some of the most professional at-bats in the league. He frequently sees 7 to 8 pitches in a plate appearance or finds a way to make hard contact. His advanced profile backs this up, as he ranks in the 91st percentile in expected wOBA (.391), 92nd in expected batting average (.300), 81st in expected slugging (.506), 89th in average exit velocity (92.5 MPH), 94th in hard-hit rate (54.0%), and 86th in launch angle sweet-spot rate (39.4%).
Aranda has also made several key improvements. He’s recorded a new career-high maximum exit velocity of 111.4 MPH and raised his average exit velocity overall. His hard-hit rate is up from 48.5% last season to 54.0% this year. He’s finding the sweet spot of the bat more often, with his LA Sweet-Spot% increasing from 34.0% to 39.4%. His expected batting average has climbed from .257 to .300, and he’s also walking more, up from 8.4% to 11.0%. As a result, his expected and actual numbers across the board, xwOBA, wOBA, xSLG, and SLG, have all improved. Pitchers have started attacking him differently, but he's adjusted right back. One of the most telling stats is his Ideal Contact Rate, which measures the frequency of barrels and hard-hit balls combined. That has jumped from 44.4% to 47.8%, placing him among the top 7% of all qualified hitters to start the season. His batting average on contact (BACON) sits at .440, which ranks in the top 1% in all of baseball. That level of efficiency is just how dangerous he's become when he puts the ball in play. In terms of pitch types, Aranda has made significant strides across the board. Against fastballs, his batting average has increased from .260 to .320, and his slugging percentage has jumped by nearly 100 points. He’s already doubled his home run total on fastballs compared to last year.
Looking at his performance versus breaking and offspeed pitches, the improvements continue. Against breaking balls, his batting average has gone from .200 to .360, his expected batting average from .227 to .319, and his average exit velocity has improved from 91.4 MPH to 92.5 MPH. Against offspeed offerings, his batting average has increased from .200 to .289, his expected average from .257 to .352, and his expected slugging from .460 to .548. He’s also hitting those pitches harder on average, with his exit velocity climbing from 86.2 MPH to 89.6 MPH. Not only that, but he's become harder to put away as well, lowering his PutAway% against both pitch types. Overall, Jonathan Aranda has made a clear case to be selected for the All-Star Game this season. He ranks among the league’s best in batting average, slugging percentage, OPS, and wRC+, all while showing improved discipline and production across the board, and even flashing more on the defensive side.
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