Jon Dowd Burner MLB Award Predictions
Jon Dowd Burner MLB Award Predictions
The Burner Boys submit their picks for end-of-season awards
In a now-annual tradition, we as a group get together and make our actual and bold picks ahead of the season. Here is a quick summary of our picks. For more detail, check out the full podcast linked below:
NL MVP
Will Hailey: Mookie Betts: Any regression from Acuña will be a disappointment even if he’s still elite, give me the best pure hitter in baseball with two more Hall of Famers batting behind him.
Kevin Lee: Mookie Betts: Unparalleled positioning when it comes to counting stats (R, RBI, HR). Acuña’s career year last year came with him cutting his K% in half (23% to 11%) while Mookie’s peripherals were all around his career ranges.
Will Maas: Freddie Freeman: Because Mookie’s defense at short knocks him down a peg, because Freeman doesn’t age, because these three of the Dodgers all put up absurd numbers, why not give it to the guy playing the best defense.
Matt Rosen: Ronald Acuña Jr.: Until someone knocks him off the throne, he is the clear and obvious front runner. If his knee is healthy, another 30/50+ season is easily in the books.
NL MVP Bold
WH: Ke’Bryan Hayes: He had a great second half and hits the ball hard with elite defense. A .310/.350/.525 season going 25/20 as a Gold Glove third basemen would net him 8 WAR.
KL: Francisco Lindor: Lindor was a 6-win player last year, and played the entire season with a bone spur in his throwing elbow. Lock me in for a 35 HR / 35 SB season with Gold Glove defense.
WM: Elly De La Cruz: Because Will Hailey said so.
MR: Seiya Suzuki: He made material improvement to his K% and BB% from season 1 to season 2, as well as having one of the best looking Savant pages in all of baseball. If his wrist is in good shape, I think we may get to see his full potential.
AL MVP
WH: Juan Soto: If he learns to utilize the short porch in his contract year? Sheeeesh.
KL: Aaron Judge: Judge was a top player in baseball with almost no support around him. Adding Soto (who won’t win because he walks too much, will have to make meaningful trade-offs for power, and is a net negative fielder and baserunner) will benefit his offensive numbers and his all-around play will give him the edge.
WM: Juan Soto: Because he’d play 188 games this year if he could this year. Contract year with a good lineup… oh wait, maybe mediocre lineup with all of these Yankee injuries raining down already.
MR: Juan Soto: He has impressed every step of the way. In a “down” year he still slashed .275/.410/.519 with 35 home runs… Soto going into a contract year could be the makings of something special.
AL MVP Bold
WH: Spencer Torkelson: He gets better every year and hit 19 bombs in the second half. With more BABIP luck he could hit .275 with 40 bombs for a fun Tigers team.
KL: Mike Trout: Did we not forget that this man was the bar-none best player in baseball? Peripherals were still obscenely good for Trout last year, and that goes for his ENTIRE game, not just his bat.
WM: Wyatt Langford: He won’t win AL MVP. But all of your picks weren’t bold enough, weren’t fun, or made zero sense. The Bregman love… get outta here. Give me a guy who walks a lot, hits the ball hard, doesn’t strike out, and doesn’t chase. Comps with those skills all became stars. Why not just put it together stupid quick with the best “Offensive Coordinator” in the league, Donnie Ecker.
MR: On the pod I said Brandon Lowe and now I’m going to stick with it, even though it’s absolutely 100% not happening. In a world where Lowe can be useful against LFP and continue to mash RHP, who says he can’t 40 HRs and provide the Rays with some much needed thump.
NL CY
WH: Spencer Strider: GOAT.
KL: Tyler Glasnow: my “vibes-iest” pick. Pitching for a new good team, and has the stuff and profile that can rival Spencer Strider.
WM: Freddy Peralta: Spencer Strider WHO!? Peralta gives innings + ridiculous stuff too. K-BB god in the second half… I’m tired of hearing about Strider.
MR: Spender Strider: 4 pitch mix now, yeah good luck…
NY CY Bold
WH: Edward Cabrera: Everything is elite except the control. A little improvement there plus some LOB% luck could give him a Snell-like 2024 (if this MRI is negative).
KL: Chris Sale: A little Braves devil magic mixed in with him terrorizing my favorite team, all the voodoo is in place for Sale to have his best season in years.
WM: Michael King: Injury label is a fluke, innings his only concern. He’s got the stuff. I’m in on Kinger.
MR: Michael King: Finished top 10 in K-BB% and now gets a run at showing that dominance with more leash and innings. If he gets to 160 IP and continues where he left off, why not.
AL CY
WH: Corbin Burnes: Contract year in a great park on a great team, he’ll return to 2021 form.
KL: Corbin Burnes: K% concerns? Look at Gerrit Cole’s season last year. HR/9 concerns? Look at the beautiful national landmark that is Mount Walltimore.
WM: George Kirby: Why not a command God? Never injured… if the K rate ticks up a touch as he’s tinkering and improving the arsenal, watch out.
MR: Pablo Lopez: The Twins continue to work their magic on SP. Pablo Lopez has a legit 4 pitch mix, pitches deep into ball games, lowered his BB%. He has all the makings to be on top.
AL CY Bold
WH: Nick Pivetta: Adding a cutter and new slider last summer makes me think the elite second half was real.
KL: Tarik Skubal: His fantastic ERA (2.80) underperformed his xERA (2.20) last year, which happened to be 100th percentile.
WM: Aaron Civale: Orange is the new black, Civale is the new Eflin. Civale takes the leap and helps lead a depleted Tampa Bay staff to a Wild Card birth. This is as much a bet on the Rays tinkering behind the scenes as it is on Civale.
MR: Nick Pivetta: From July 1 through the end of the season, he had the second best K-BB% in all of baseball and a very impressive FIP and ERA. His ERA faces a challenge playing in Fenway most of the time but the defense improved in the offseason which should help him out. Doesn’t throw the hardest but great extension and IVB, I love everything about Pivetta.
NL ROY
WH: Yoshinobu Yamamoto: Don’t overthink this.
KL: Jung Hoo Lee: I overthought it. Hot spring training + generational KBO player + position player bias puts Lee over Yamamoto for me.
WM: Yoshinobu Yamamoto: How many CY’s does he win? I’ll set the Maas y Menos at 2 in his career. Any takers?
MR: Yoshinobu Yamamoto: Don’t overthink this.
NL ROY Bold
WH: Graham Pauley: WHO?! Pauley is having a great spring and has a chance to be in the Padres opening day lineup after raking at every stop in 2023.
KL: Noelvi Marte: A true sicko pick. He’s only suspended 80 games, but what about the other 82? What if he goes full sicko-mode like we know he’s capable of?
WM: Tyler Black: Gotta get down on Fridays. Nuff Said. All jokes aside, a career .415 OBP in the minors, this positionless speedster swiped 55 bases on 67 attempts in 123 games last year. He also posted an ISO over .200 and a SLG over .500, so… why not? Can’t nice things happen in Milwaukee?
MR: Hunter Goodman: If he gets up by the end of April, or early May, who says he can’t hit 30+, if not 40 HRs with Coors as his home stadium. Has a bit of K problem but 70 grade raw power is 70 grade raw power. (I also like Victor Scott II to win, shhhh)
AL ROY
WH: Wyatt Langford: LISAN AL-GAIB
KL: Jackson Holliday: Here is the clip of his Spring Training grand slam. That is a big-league ready pimp job.
WM: Wyatt Langford: I picked him for MVP. This isn’t Aaron Judge vs Jose Altuve - you can give the best guy both awards.
MR: Evan Carter: It’s Carter, Lanford, or Holliday. I just picked the guy that’s performed on the brightest stage and has won a WS while hitting over .300. Keep in mind his BAPIP was over .400, so that’s not sustainable…
AL ROY Bold
WH: Dominic Fletcher: Has the age, experience, tools, and opportunity to make an impact on a bad White Sox team.
KL: Wyatt Langford: the anti-bold pick. Oops. But will he start the year with Texas? My gut says no.
WM: Parker Meadows: With potential gold glove defense that will keep him in the lineup, 90th percentile sprint speed, an ISO that sat above 200 once he warmed up to a level and a cup of tea in the majors that included 8 steals in 37 games? Yes, please.
MR: Kyle Manzardo: Incredible bat skills and has the potential to hit in a decent spot of the order that will add to his counting stats. Gets to learn from JRAM and Naylor, sign me up. (I also like Rafaela, but didn’t want to make it a homer pick)