Is Tyler Gilbert a Sneaky Good Acquisition?
A deep dive into the changes Tyler Gilbert has made and possible adjustments I could see the White Sox making
Opening
Earlier this week the Chicago White Sox acquired LHP Tyler Gilbert from the Phillies in exchange for minor leaguer Aaron Combs. Prior to this trade, Gilbert was DFA’d by the Phillies, leading many fans confused why the White Sox would give up their 2024 8th round pick in Aaron Combs in return. Despite this, today I'm going to be taking an in-depth look at Tyler Gilbert and the changes he's made and future adjustments I would like to see.
Gilbert is famously known for throwing a no-hitter in his first major league start with his time with the Diamondbacks but really hasn't been heard from since. Gilbert has spent the past few seasons between the Majors and Triple A as a starter and reliever for the Diamondbacks in past years and most recently for the Phillies in 2024. In these stints, Gilbert has had some ups and downs, with his most successful season being his rookie season in 2021, where he posted a 3.15 ERA, 3.95 xERA, and 4.27 FIP on 40 innings pitched. Since then it's been rough, posting a 5.24 ERA in 2022, a 5.19 ERA in 2023, and a 3.24 ERA in a small sample size with the Phillies, but in 40 innings with their Triple A affiliate, he posted an encouraging 2.25 ERA.
It seems like Gilbert is taking a step in the right direction. This improvement is partially due to an altering of his arm angle, which I'll get into later, leading me to believe Gilbert may just need a new opportunity to show what he's capable of. Despite this improvement, some adjustments I would like to see from Gilbert are decreasing usage/generating depth on his sinker, splitting his sweeper into two shapes, and a complete usage change.
Delivery Characteristics
First off, let's dive into Tyler Gilbert's delivery characteristics. Gilbert is a lefty low-slot supinator, due to his low spin efficiency on his 4 seam (89.1%) and ability to maintain velocity on breaking pitches. He leans more towards the wider ISA frame because of his wider frame and flat helical angle.
Gilbert's delivery is unique. He has lots of counter-rotation at peak leg lift leading to a partially closed delivery at release. Despite this counter-rotation, Gilbert is still able to effectively rotate his hips into delivery and create hip-shoulder separation at landing.
Delivery Changes
A major change Gilbert made in 2024 is the lowering of his arm angle. Prior to this season, Gilbert threw from higher arm angles of 34 degrees in 21’/22’ and 29 degrees in 23’. In 2024 though, he dropped it all the way down to 17 degrees. This allowed Gilbert to get down to a well below average release height of 5.1’ despite minimal extension of 6.1’. This change made his delivery more deceptive than in previous seasons, allowing for his lacking characteristics, like velocity, to play up as a result.
Sinker Adjustments
A common theme with Gilbert throughout his pro career is his inability to generate depth on his sinker. For example, his sinker from 2024 had a shape of 6.1 iVB and 18.0 iHB while being thrown at a velocity of 91.4 MPH. Even though this pitch may seem like it gets effective depth, because of his arm angle, it actually is ineffective in that aspect. As you can see in the image below, this pitch has over 1.7” inches of unexpected ride relative to Gilbert's arm angle. Due to Gilbert getting behind this pitch, it limits his ability to generate ground balls like a typical sinker would, leading to a 30.0% GB% in 2024. This is consistent throughout his career, producing below-average GB rates with 50% in 2021, 33.3% in 2022, and 40% in 2023 (the league average is 54.8%).
This inability to generate ground balls with this pitch limits its effectiveness and is a head-scratcher as to why the Phillies choose to throw so often (37% of the time). Of course his time with the Phillies was a small sample, but it was present in his time in Triple A as well, with Gilbert throwing it over 32% of the time to lefties and 26% of the time to righties. Against lefties, this pitch was productive, posting a .250 AVG, .251 wOBA, .306 xwOBA, and a 9.6 Whiff%. Against righties, though, it was horrible, posting a .406 AVG, .456 wOBA, and .414 xwOBA, despite a 23.1 Whiff%. To counteract this, I think the White Sox should decrease its usage to predominantly lefties and attempt to generate some SSW effects on this pitch.
The reason I believe he should try and implement some form of SSW is to generate depth on this pitch. As I stated previously, depth on this pitch would help Gilbert ideally create weaker contact on the ground leading to improved results. This makes me believe that developing depth through SSW and decreasing the usage of this pitch against righties is a must for Gilbert.
Split Sweeper in Two
With the major change of Gilbert's arm angle, his ability to throw his knuckle curves and splitters has diminished. Prior to this season, these two pitches have played a major role in his game plan against opposite-handedness, but now since he can't get on top of the ball as effectively, it leads to a shallow arsenal, especially against righties. Consequently, this led to a .305 AVG, .367 wOBA, .306 xwOBA, and 23% Whiff% against righties, while his results vs lefties are much better with a .231 AVG, .254 wOBA, .252 xwOBA, and 24.8 Whiff%.
What I think Gilbert should do to counteract this is to split his sweeper into two pitches. The first being his bigger sweeper thrown predominantly to lefties and a shorter gyro-type slider that can be used against both handedness. I believe this addition is a necessity. It will allow Gilbert to add much-needed depth to his arsenal, causing him to be more unpredictable and making hitters account for different spots in the zone.
Usage Changes
With the major change of Gilbert's arm angle and possible adjustments of his pitches, there's bound to be a usage change to go with it. Due to Gilbert's stint with the Phillies being so small, I'm going to be basing his previous usages on his time in Triple A. To start off, let's see how Gilbert attacked righties.
In 2024, Gilbert was predominantly a 3-pitch guy with 32% 4-seam fastballs, 26% sinkers, 23% cutters, 2% sweepers, 9% knuckle curves, and 8% splitters. A needed change that the White Sox need to do is to drastically decrease his sinker usage vs. righties. Like I mentioned previously, it just isn't effective. The new usages I would be inclined to see are 35% 4 seam, 5% sinker, 25% cutters, 5% sweepers, 15% gyro slider, 10% knuckle curve, and 5% splitter.
Against lefties in 2024, Gilbert's usage was slightly different. Gilbert had a usage rate of 23% 4 seams, 32% sinkers, 19% cutters, 10% sweepers, 16% knuckle curves, and no splitters. This usage rate isn't bad. It was effective at limiting damage and getting outs, but with the possible addition of a gyro slider, I could see it being slightly altered. I could see the White Sox reverting to a 25% 4-seam, 30% sinkers, 10% cutters, 15% sweepers, 10% gyro sliders, 5% knuckle curves, and 5% splitters.
Conclusion
All in all, I believe that Gilbert has the ability to be a solid reliever. The change to lower his arm angle allows for him to be much more deceptive and, at times, more effective despite his slow velocity. A possible change of scenery and an opportunity of playing time in Chicago can do him well. I would like to see some adjustments by decreasing usage/adding depth to his sinker, splitting his sweeper in two, and rearranging his usages against both handedness. I'll be excited to see the changes Gilbert makes coming into spring and the results he'll be able to produce.
Thanks for reading!
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