Is This Free Agent the Next Shota Imanaga?
Let’s analyze Shinnosuke Ogasawara’s NPB data.
I recently had the pleasure of analyzing pitch data for Shinnosuke Ogasawara, a 27-year-old Japanese lefty who has been posted by the Chunichi Dragons of the NPB. Over his nine-season career, Ogasawara has logged a solid 3.62 ERA in over 950 innings, establishing himself as a reliable mid-rotation starter. Notably, he’s pitched over 140 innings in each of the last three seasons, showcasing durability.
This table shows Ogaswara’s pitch metrics from his 2024 season. In this article, we will analyze these numbers, break down some concerning and intriguing signs, suggest some adjustments, and compare him to two MLB pitchers.
Fastball
Ogasawara’s fastball sits at just 89 MPH, but it is effective because of its elite-induced vertical break (IVB) of 19.3 inches and 9.6 inches of horizontal movement. At 5'11", he releases the ball low, allowing his fastball to play well up in the zone despite its below-average velocity. However, heatmaps reveal that his fastball often leaked over the middle of the plate in 2024, leading to damage. An MLB team would likely emphasize locating his fastball higher in the zone, especially to his glove side, where it can jam right-handed hitters and exploit its "rise."
In his breakout 2022 season (2.52 ERA, 24% K-rate), Ogasawara consistently located his fastball to the glove side, and it had a respectable 17% whiff rate. If he had paired this with higher elevation in the zone, that rate likely would have been even better. Although his velocity has dipped slightly from 90.2 MPH in 2022 to 89.2 MPH in 2024, the high IVB and improved location could mitigate the velocity loss.
My Suggested Adjustment: Reduce fastball usage from 50% to 30-35% while elevating it to his gloveside more consistently.
Changeup
Ogasawara’s Changeup is his most intriguing pitch in my opinion. It plays off his fastball with 11.6 IVB, 13 inches of horizontal break, its more like a sinker in terms of movement but its value comes from a significant velocity gap (10+ MPH slower than his fastball). Despite its effectiveness—a 25.6% whiff rate in 2024—he only used it 15% of the time. Increasing its usage, especially in two-strike counts, could yield significant results.
That said, the pitch has limited depth, so experimenting with a grip adjustment to add drop might further enhance its effectiveness.
My Suggested Adjustment: Increase the Changeup usage to 30%, particularly in two-strike counts.
Knuckle Curve
Ogasawara’s knuckle curve is a unique pitch: it sits in the low 70s, has extreme drop (-20.6 IVB), and spins at nearly 3,000 RPM. While its movement is impressive, the slow velocity makes it a high-risk offering against MLB hitters. Used as a primary secondary pitch in the NPB (17% usage), it may need to take a backseat in MLB.
My Suggested Adjustment: Reduce knuckle curve usage to 5-10%, use it primarily in 0-0 counts to steal strikes. Replace some of its usages with his slider.
Slider
Ogasawara’s slider is a tight, gyro offering with 4 IVB and 2.4 HB, thrown at 78-82 MPH. It had a strong 29.8% whiff rate against left-handed hitters in 2024. When paired with his high glove-side fastball, the slider could be a deadly weapon, particularly down and into right-handed batters and away from lefties.
My Suggested Adjustment: Increase slider usage to 20%, particularly as a put-away pitch against left-handed hitters.
MLB Comparisons and Contract Prediction
The most obvious comp for Ogasawara is Shota Imanaga, the fellow Japanese Lefty who took MLB by storm in 2024 with his unorthodox low release point and high-IVB fastball. However, Imanaga’s fastball sits about 2 MPH harder (91-93 MPH, touching 97), giving him a slight edge in effectiveness.
I believe the better comp is Tyler Anderson, the Angels' lefty whose high-IVB, 89 MPH fastball plays off a similarly effective changeup. Anderson’s changeup had a 40% whiff rate in 2024, supporting the idea that Ogasawara should lean more on his changeup in MLB. Anderson signed a 3-year, $39M deal, suggesting Ogasawara could command something like a 2-year, $20-25M contract.
Conclusion
Overall, these are my recommendations for Ogasawara:
1. Fastball: Reduce usage to 30-35% and consistently elevate it in the zone.
2. Split-Changeup: Increase usage to 30%, prioritize in two-strike counts, and consider experimenting with a deeper grip.
3. Slider: Increase usage to 20%, particularly as a put-away pitch.
4. Knuckle Curve: Reduce usage to 5-10%, primarily in 0-0 counts.
By making these adjustments, Ogasawara could develop into a reliable MLB starter, capable of delivering Tyler Anderson-level production with upside tied to his intriguing pitch movement and sequencing.