Is Justin Martinez Baseball's Next Elite Closer?
At just 23-years-old, Justin Martinez has caught the eye of many
Could it be naive of me to pin someone as “elite” if their career is constructed of 82.2 career innings at the Major League level? Yes. Do I firmly believe Justin Martinez of the Arizona Diamondbacks has what it takes to be a bullpen staple for years to come? Yes.
Before you hear me out, feast your eyes on his gorgeous Baseball Savant page:
Not convinced? Fine. Let’s dive in.
Devin Williams’ name has been tossed around all winter, as the Brewers elite closer is reportedly on the trade block. But what makes Williams elite? How does he separate himself from the pack? His outlier pitch.
Williams’ “Airbender” changeup seems to defy gravity when released from his hand, as it has extreme horizontal movement with a deceptive release point. Watching him pitch on TV reminds us all that baseball is very, very hard.
Paired with his fastball, the RHP has been able to get hitters out at a consistent clip since he was called up (except for Pete Alonso) thanks to his changeup. Earning MVP votes in 2023, and wracking up 375 strikeouts across 235.2 IP, Williams is undoubtedly elite.
Another elite closer? Emmanuel Clase.
Clase was in the AL Cy Young conversation for most of 2024 until Tarik Skubal pulled away from him down the stretch. The Guardians RHP put up historic numbers, such as his 0.61 ERA over 74.1 frames. He closed out 47 ballgames for Cleveland in the process.
Like Williams, Clase has an outlier pitch that makes him so effective. His cutter.
Averaging 99.5 miles per hour, and hurling past 100 on a nightly basis, Clase’s cutter is borderline unhittable. Used 77% of the time, hitters posted a whopping 24.5% whiff rate against the pitch in 2024 and hit just .150. Elite.
So, where does Justin Martinez fit in with all of this?
With inexperience and small sample sizes, I believe Justin Martinez has the potential to be an elite closer but isn’t quite there yet. One pitch in the young right-hander’s arsenal stands out to me with outlier potential among the rest.
His split-finger fastball.
In 2024, Martinez threw 204 splitters (21.8% usage rate) and dominated with it. He made hitters look silly, as they whiffed 54% of the time, a striking number. Paired with this swing-and-miss, the pitched induced a meager .098 BA, .095 xBA, .149 wOBA, .122 SLG% — unbelievable numbers. The most impressive number of all? a 65.9 K% with it. That certainly seems like an outlier to me.
One thing that worries me about Martinez’s ability to become elite is his control. Clase walked just ten batters in 2024 (3.7%) while Martinez was in the bottom 10th percentile for walking batters (11.7%).
However, Williams has had a high walk rate his entire career. His rate in 2024 (albeit a small sample size) was 12.5%. It is possible to close games at an elite level while surrendering the free pass, but not improbable. Look at Craig Kimbrel with the Orioles this past year.
If Martinez wants to reach this elite company of closers headed toward Cooperstown, he must do a few things:
Throw strikes more frequently.
Continue to use his 100 mph sinker as an outlet to fool batters with his splitter (like Williams with his fastball/changeup combo).
Stay healthy.
Nevertheless, he is going to be an intriguing arm to follow in 2025.