Is Connor Brogdon a Sneaky Good Signing for the Angels?
A deep dive into Connor Brogdon's recent struggles and possible ways of improvement.
Opening
Earlier this week, the Los Angeles Angels quietly signed Connor Brogdon to a minor league deal. This signing will largely get brushed under the rug, but in reality, it's a smart move by the Angels. It's a low-risk, high-reward deal. If this Brogdon experiment is bad, it's only a minor-league deal, but if it's successful, they get a quality reliever for pennies on the dime.
Of course, this minor league deal is warranted by poor performance and an injury-riddled season in 24, where he posted a 27.0 ERA in just two innings for the Phillies before being dealt to the Dodgers and being put on the IR for the remainder of the season. This ineffectiveness wasn't always the norm. From 2020 to 2023, Brogdon was rather productive, producing a 3.97 ERA in 20’, a 3.43 ERA in 21’, a 3.27 ERA in 22’, and lastly a 4.03 ERA in 23’. What's even more encouraging are his expected results in those years, with a 3.96 xERA in 20', 3.19 xERA in 21', 2.19 xERA in 22', and a 3.98 xERA in 23'.
Regardless of this, to regain his prior effectiveness, the Angels will need to address aspects of Brogdon's game that seem to be dwindling. Over the past few years, and especially in 2024, Brogdon has experienced a major decrease in velocity. This could be the cause of his ineffectiveness in 24', but I'll get into that more in-depth later in the article. To attempt to bring out Brogdon's past form, I think the Angels should aim their adjustments at regaining the lost velocity, toy with the addition of a gyro slider, and alter usages. I think Brogdon still has juice left in the tank and would love to see this deal work out in the favor of the Angels.
Delivery Characteristics
Before I get into the possible adjustments the Angels could make to Brogdon, let's take a look at his delivery characteristics. Brogdon is a righty stock-slot pronator due to his 33-degree arm angle, 98% spin efficiency on his 4-seam, and ability to turn over his changeup. To say the least, Brogdon has a unique delivery. At first, he starts with his feet offset with his front foot positioned more towards 3rd base prior to the pitch and lands with his lead foot open at the foot plant. This unorthodox landing is due to his exceptional rotational ability, which is especially evident by his efficient hip-shoulder separation. Besides this, Brogdon is only able to get down to a 5.9’ release height despite his 33-degree arm angle and elite extension of 7.0’.
Regaining Velocity
The first task at hand for the Angels must be to address his lost velocity. All the way back in 2021, Brogdon was able to generate an average 4-seam velocity of 96.0 MPH. Compared to present day, Brogdon was only averaging 92.8 MPH on his 4-seam in 2024; that's over 3 MPH lost! This wasn't abrupt, though, since at 21', he had a slight decrease in velocity, going from 96 at 21’ to 95.1 at 22’, 94.7 at 23’, and a massive decrease to his 24’ velocity of 92.8. This could be an accumulation of things ranging from injuries to possible mechanical changes.
I want to explain the injury first. In 24’, Brogdon started off the season with the Phillies and had a rough stretch, appearing in 3 games and registering a 27 ERA in just two innings. He was later DFA'd and traded to the Dodgers on April 6th but was immediately put on the injured list on April 13th for “right plantar fasciitis.” There is a possibility that he did get injured in the week he was with the Dodgers, and that's why he was placed on IR, but what if he was playing through this injury with the Phillies? This would explain to some degree why there was such a drop-off in his velocity from 23’ to 24’, but it still wouldn't paint the full picture of why his velocity is declining consistently.
On the mechanical side, I don't see a whole lot that's changed. He still has the same setup: high lead leg rise, open foot landing, and effective hip-shoulder separation, which leads me to infer that this loss in velocity may just have something to do with getting older. Of course, Brogdon is still young, only turning 30 this upcoming season, but with him being so elastically driven, there may be a concern his connective tissue could be drying out. If this is happening, it simply means Brogdon can't produce the same kinetic chain that he previously could, leading to less energy transfer into release. ( 21’ on top, 24’ on bottom)
Of course, these are just my thoughts and ideas about a possible reason why Brogdon has experienced this loss in velocity. These are not official or end-all-be-all. I am simply going off the knowledge I have gained through personal research and am applying it to the scenario that Brogdon is currently in. Besides that, I think there is a possibility Brogdon can regain some form of velocity. Whether that's through simply getting healthy or running him through a true biomechanical breakdown and assessing what's best for him, I still see a possibility that he will get back to his previous velocities.
Addition of Gyro Slider
The next adjustment I would be intrigued to see from Brogdon is to add depth to his arsenal. Before the decline in his velocity, Brogdon could get away with a shallow arsenal consisting of only a 4-seam, cutter, and changeup because of his effective velocity. Fast forward to the present day: with Brogdon's steady decline in velocity and limited repertoire, it's no surprise he's being hit around more, as evident in the results below. To help with this, I think the addition of a gyro slider could be a viable solution.
The reason I think a gyro slider would be the best fit is because of his pronation bias, which causes him to have a tougher time producing velocity on bigger breaking shapes. I see this pitch as a revolutionizer for Brogdon's arsenal. It would allow for him to have the ability to generate glove-side depth with a pitch, which he has never been able to do throughout the course of his career. As a result, this will allow Brogdon to attack hitters with a wider game plan against both-handedness, making them account for new parts of the zone in ways he couldn't prior. Add this on with the possibility that he can't regain his velocity; it's a no-brainer to add this pitch.
Usage Changes
With the possible addition of a gyro slider to Brogdon's arsenal, there are bound to be some usage changes. Due to Brogdon's sample size of 24' being so small, I'm going to be using his 23' usage as a baseline. In 23’, Brogdon had a usage rate of 31% for 4-seams, 30% for cutters, and 39% for changeups. The 39% usage rate of his changeup is rather strange due to the typical tendencies by pitchers to only throw changeups to opposite-handed batters. Despite this, Brogdon has been able to produce exceptional numbers with this pitch against righties with a .238 AVG, .304 wOBA, .263 xwOBA, 41.2 Whiff% in 22’, and a .107 AVG, .139 wOBA, .180 xwOBA, and a 32.4 Whiff% in 23’. Knowing this, I could see an alteration of his usage to 30% 4-seam, 35% changeup, 10% cutter, and 25% slider.
Now it's time to look at his usage against lefties. In 23’, Brogdon had a usage rate of 35% 4-seams, 50% changeups, and 16% cutters. Although the changeup usage may seem extreme, it was somewhat effective, producing a .300 AVG, .203 xAVG, .321 wOBA, .228 xwOBA, and a 30.6 Whiff%. Despite this, with the possibility of adding a gyro slider, I think they'll pull from that usage. An adjusted usage I could see the Angels using is 30% 4-seams, 40% changeups, 10% cutters, and 20% sliders.
Conclusion
All in all, I do like this signing of the Angels. It's a cheap minor-league deal where they take little to no risk on a player who's shown he's a capable reliever. To maximize the value of this contract, though, the Angels will have to find a way to address Brogdon's decreasing velocity, which was a significant factor in the early part of his career. This could be as simple as letting him get healthy over the offseason, or it could be a deeper problem where he can't generate his past kinetic chain due to his connective tissue drying out. Besides this, the addition of a gyro slider seems almost perfect for him with or without regaining his velocity and will allow for his shallow arsenal to expand. This signing may not seem huge, but for what it's worth, it could be precisely what Brogdon needs to regain his prior effectiveness.
Thanks for reading!
Follow me on X @OrangeSportFan for more content like this! And if you haven’t already please consider subscribing below.