Introducing MLB's Newest Ballclub... The Charlotte Aviators
In my perfect world, I own the next MLB expansion team. Here's my expansion draft.
The odds of the MLB actually expanding are slim. Divisional realignments would be a mess; there’s a player draft not just for the MLB, but every minor league level, too. It's truly a logistical nightmare, but as a fan, I dream of the day this actually happens. Obviously, in my perfect world, I own the team, too, and unless someone buys out my content for billions of dollars (nonzero chance), this will remain a pipe dream. Of the potential expansion cities, while I would love Nashville, something about the Charlotte Aviators tickles my fancy, and I loved the logo I found in a random Reddit thread. So, that will be the team I’m building. I will be introducing the team I would assemble with contracts, and I will lay out all the rules and stipulations below. Fair warning: this will be closer to a dissertation than a blog, so gear up for a long one. I absolutely loved doing this and have been working on this for the last month. I hope someone out there reads the whole thing and enjoys it, too.
The Rules & Team Philosophy
Similarly to the NHL expansion draft, teams can protect players. There is no technical limit, but there is a threshold to which a team would sacrifice draft picks to protect those players. I believe that number to be 8-9, so that was my baseline when creating the list. Here’s a link to what I think would be the protected players list in this scenario, as I don’t have enough space to do that here, and not everyone is interested in that. Other than the players in that excel sheet, all players (including those in FA this winter) are up for grabs. Don’t come for me, that was all personal opinion of who I think teams value. No, my team does not have unlimited money, and Charlotte would more than likely fall under the “small market” umbrella of the MLB. The MLB average active payroll in 2024 was $104,830,614, however, the median was $171,796,598. To be fair, I’ll split those for my maximum payroll at $138,313,606, which would’ve placed the Aviators as the 18th highest spender in 2024. I will be constructing a 26-man roster since the MLB active payroll is based on that number and not the 40-man.
*Note: All contracts are based on projections and/or www.spotrac.com
Despite being just 26 years of age, I’m an old head when it comes to baseball. It’s part of the reason why I love College Baseball so much. The emphasis on pitching, defense, and small ball is what I’m all about. I’ll be emphasizing pitching while picking hitters that may not be sexy but can sure as hell produce. Without further ado, let’s get right into the squad.
Starting Pitchers
SP 1: Shane Bieber, RHP
29-year-old Shane Bieber will be tasked with being the ace of this new club, and it’s a perfect fit. I’m not overly concerned with the injury trouble the last few years, as he is one of the best and most consistent arms in the league when he’s healthy. In his last full season (2022), he tallied 4.8 fWAR over 200 IP, pitching to a 2.88 ERA with a 25% K% and just a 4.6% BB%. Historically, Bieber has relied heavily on his fastball, despite being below average in velocity at just 91.3 MPH. What I love about Bieber is the upside of his Chase% and WHIFF%, which are consistently above 30%. With a full arsenal of pitches (FB/SL/KNCV/CT/CH), Bieber is able to mix up looks, and while he relies on the FB over 35% of the time, hitters struggle with it due to the RPM (2304) and well above average extension which makes it a ‘heavy fastball’ due to the perceived velocity. Not to mention his ability to land his whole arsenal for a strike, and put-away stuff.
Contract: 3-year, $52.5M, $17.5M AAV
Salary Remaining for 2025: $120,813,606
SP 2: Jack Flaherty, RHP
While Jack Flaherty has had an outstanding year in Detroit and LA, the Dodger's injuries will bring back a slew of arms while Flaherty hits the open market, and the Dodgers may lose the bidding war.. Racking up debatably his career-best year at the age of 29, Flaherty is my #2 SP target. Sure, the injuries have been an issue in the past, and we’ve seen extreme peaks and valleys this season. However, the career low in BB% (5.9%), and near best in ERA (3.17), a career-high in K% (29.9%), and LOB% (80.9%) give me a ton of confidence to throw some money at the big righty and let him go to work. Flaherty is also at a career-best in WHIFF% in the 93% of the MLB, and the increase in both his slider and knuckle-curve usage seems to be the difference in his success, along with getting away from the sinker and replacing it with a 4-seam fastball that he uses nearly 45% of the time.
Contract: 3-years, $65M, $21.6M AAV
Salary Remaining for 2025: $99,213,606
SP 3: Walker Buehler, RHP
Walker Buehler will be hitting the free agent market after missing two straight seasons with Tommy John surgery, and while 2024 didn’t go as planned, he looked great in the playoffs. The biggest note about Buehler coming off so many injuries is that he is still relearning to pitch out of a different arm slot. Understanding this risk means he’ll come with a lower price tag, but high incentive type contract and gives him time to hone in. The swing-and-miss stuff is clearly still there with the slider/curveball, and he spins it about as well as anyone in the league. While he won’t run it up to 98 anymore (his WS performance made me eat my words), the low-mid 90s can play as long as the walks get limited, which was his big issue in 2024. The 5.38 ERA was somewhat deceiving as the xERA was at 4.68, and I anticipate the innings going way up.
Contract: 2-year, $24M, $14M AAV
Salary Remaining for 2025: $85,213,606
SP 4: Reese Olson, RHP
I find myself extremely drawn to Reese Olson and his arsenal of offspeed pitches that makes for a miserable AB. With a Barrel% in the 85th% and 87th% in WHIFF%, Olson uses his changeup and slider for a combined 40% with a B/AVG of .222 and .143 respectively. In Olson’s second MLB season, he racked up 112.1 IP, pitching to a 3.53 ERA (3.51 xERA). While he doesn’t flash overwhelming strikeout numbers, the 7.1% BB% is fantastic, along with the groundball rate in the 86%. Olson holds the capacity to be a fantastic number two as he gets older, and at only 25, he’s just getting going. This would be a great building block for a resignation at the end of 2025.
Contract (from DET): 1-year, $800K, $800K AAV
Salary Remaining for 2025: $84,413,606
SP 5: Patrick Sandoval, LHP
I know, this one isn’t sexy. Sandoval has struggled the last few years, but I’m airing on the side of blaming his situation. Despite the 5.08 ERA, his xERA was nearly a full point less at 4.25. Sandoval dealt with injuries through his 2024 campaign and finished his season with a 22.9% K% and a 9.9% BB%. He scored out really well in terms of limiting barrels (88%), and his breaking balls and offspeed still provide a lot of value. Sandoval’s sinker was the trouble pitch in which opposing batters accumulated an average slug of .413/.534. It's not pretty, but I’d suggest he uses the pitch less, similar to 2022 and 2021, where he put up fantastic numbers and relied more on his slider to play off of his changeup and curve, which are by far the best pitches in his arsenal. I believe a change of scenery is just what Sandoval needs, and at just 28 years old, they can be an anchor for the bottom of the order.
Contract (from LAA): 1-year, $6.3M, $6.3M AAV
Salary Remaining for 2025: $78,113,606
Swingman: Mitch Spence, RHP
Mitch Spence showed a lot of great flashes in his first full MLB season with the Oakland A’s. Racking up 151.1 IP to a 4.58 ERA (4.11 xERA) and a 1.38 WHIP. While the strikeout stuff didn’t show, he limited walks well staying under 7%, and was in the 81% of GB%. Spence also found huge success with Chase% thanks to his cutter/slider combo that gets used 72% of the time. He did suffer giving up hard contact, but I see that more as growing pains for a rookie than a long-term issue, given the movement he gets throughout his arsenal. The 26-year-old is certainly a guy that can swing between the rotation and bullpen and can easily find success in year two.
Contract (from OAK): 1-year, $800K, $800K AAV
Salary Remaining for 2025: $77,313,606
Bullpen
RP 1: Orion Kerkering, RHP
Orion Kerkering busted onto the scene for Philly in 2024, accumulating a 1.5fWAR, a 2.29 ERA, and a 1.08 WHIP with 10.57 K/9 over 63 IP. The 23-year-old flashes a sweeper that is used 55.7% of the time with a 31.1% WHIFF%. He does everything well, from limiting hard contact (86%) to inducing groundballs (93%), and racks up non-contact outs, a bullpens dream.
Contract (from PHI): 1-year, $800K, $800K AAV
Salary Remaining for 2025: $76,513,606
RP 2: Ryan Walker, RHP
Ryan Walker quietly threw to a 1.91 ERA over 80 IP for the Giants in 2024. Racking up 11.03 K/9 with just a 5.8% BB%. Walker is a true two-pitch pitcher, going sinker/slider that has opposing batters hitting .217 and .173 respectively. With a 0.78 WHIP, Walker makes for a brutal at-bat, and limits hard contact about as well as anyone in the MLB (98%).
Contract (from SF): 1-year, $800K, $800K AAV
Salary Remaining for 2025: $75,713,606
RP 3: Lucas Erceg, RHP
29-year-old Lucas Erceg really found his stride in 2024 after a rocky 2023 rookie campaign. Lowering his ERA from a 4.75-3.36 and xERA from 3.69-3.17 while cutting his walk numbers by 8%. Averaging 98.9 mph on the fastball, Erceg makes for a tough AB with his FB/SL/SNK/CH arsenal, all of which get used at very similar rates. This is what stands out to me because he isn’t a matchup merchant, he throws the FB/SL almost evenly between RHH and LHH with the difference being the third pitch where he relies on the sinker to RHH and the changeup to LHH. Gets a lot of WHIFFs (31%) with a 28.5% K%. Hitters struggled mightily with Erceg all season in his time in both Oakland and Kansas City. Was Mr. Reliable all year, racking up 61.2 IP in 61 APP.
Contract (from KC): 1-year, $800K, $800K AAV
Salary Remaining for 2025: $74,913,606
RP 4: Alex Vesia, LHP
A bit of a homer pick, but not without good reason. Vesia flashed the best fastball of the 2024 Postseason despite only averaging 93.4 mph. With 21.6” IVB (leads MLB LHP), opposing batters hit just .148 against his 4-seamer. With +20 run value on his fastball, Vesia has one of the best in the game, and he’s a lefty.
Contract (from LAD): 1-year, $2.2M, $2.2M AAV
Salary Remaining for 2025: $72,713,606
RP 5: Gabe Speier, LHP
Sticking with another lefty, Gabe Speier was one of the best relievers in the MLB in 2023 racking up 54.2 IP. He battled injuries through 2024 and only had 23.2 IP, so I’ll be using his 2023 data to justify this. Was on of the best in Chase% with a 39.7 largely due to his FB/SL combo that generated a 45.7% and 35.7% WHIFF% and had opposing batters hitting just .215 and .186 against. Despite averaging just 94.5 with the fastball, the stuff has off-the-charts potential and is worth a shot on a bounce back in 2025.
Contract (from SEA): 1-year $900K, $900K AAV
Salary Remaining for 2025: $71,813,606
RP 6: Garrett Cleavinger, LHP
Garrett Cleavinger is coming off a career high in appearances (68) and innings (60), while tallying a 3.75 ERA and 10.65 K/9. What I like so much about Cleavinger, similar to Vesia, is the 4-seam fastball. Through 2024, opposing batters hit just .089 with a .200 SLG against the pitch, that he used 24.8% of the time, largely due to his 16.6” IVB and average of 96.3 MPH. The Cutter was the pitch that got Cleavinger into the most trouble, while the FB/SL combo was his bread and butter. Another solid lefty to add to the pen that can be an appearance merchant.
Contract (from TB): 1-year $1.1M, $1.1M AAV
Salary Remaining for 2025: $70,713,606
CP: Trevor Megill, RHP
Every good club needs a lights-out closer, and Trevor Megill and his 98.8 MPH Fastball is just the guy. Megill racked up 46.1 IP in 48 appearances, and 21 saves while filling in for Devin Williams while he was on the shelf. With a career best in BB/9 (2.72), LOB% (75.5%), ERA (2.72), and WAR 1.0. While he might be prone to hard contact and flashes just a two-pitch arsenal (4-Seam, CB), opposing hitters had an xBA of just .213 against the 6’8 righty. Despite using the fastball 71.3% of the time, opposing batters struggled to see any type of success off it hitting .209 with a .279 SLG. He has become accustomed to the big moment and is a guy I want with the ball late in games.
Contract: 1-year, $2.125M, $2.125M AAV
Salary Remaining for 2025: $68,588,606
Catcher
Jake Rogers
This team will rely heavily on catching by committee, mostly because any catcher with a lot of value would almost certainly be protected. Jake Rogers was putrid at the plate in 2024 slashing .197/.255/.352 with just 43 RBI, but finds himself in the upper echelon of defensive catchers with a +12 Feilding Run Value, and is fantastic in nearly every defensive metric. I believe in Rogers’ hitting ability more than what he showed in 2024 and I believe he can get back to a 20+ home run player. I’ll take the great defense, knowing he isn’t playing every game.
Contract (from DET): 1-year, $2.23M, $2.23M AAV
Salary Remaining for 2025: $66,358,606
Ben Rortvedt
Sticking with another defensive-heavy catcher, Ben Rortvedt does more than his part behind the dish and offers enough offensively to get the job done as a platoon catcher. Slashed a career-best .228/.317/.303 in 2024, tallying a 1.4 fWAR. What I like about Rortvedt is he walks. A lot. 10.4% in 2024. Yes, there is a lot of swing and miss in his game, but at the very least, this squad will thrive defensively behind the plate.
Contract (from TB): 1-year, $1M, $1M AAV
Salary Remaining for 2025: $65,358,606
First Base
Spencer Torkelson
I may be the one person on Planet Earth that still believes in the bat of Spencer Torkelson. Despite coming off of what was debatably his worst MLB season where he would slash .219/.295/.319 in 92 games while also being sent down for a stretch, I still see the vision. In what was a sub-par 2023, he still managed to club 31 dingers with 94 RBI. It’s still in the tank. While there is a concerning amount of swing-and-miss in his game (27.6% K%), he still has a good approach, hardly chasing outside the zone (23.2%), the results just haven’t been there. The decline in barrels (14.1% - 6.4%), average EV (91.8 - 89.0), and hard-hit% (50.9% - 39.7%) from 2023-2024 is a massive red flag, and I believe a simple change in scenery can be the solution, and if not, it’s his last chance.
Contract (from DET): 1-year, $800K, $800K AAV
Salary Remaining for 2025: $800,000
Jonah Bride
After getting his first (longer) stint in the MLB at the age of 28, Jonah Bride made a splash in Miami slashing .276/.357/.461 with 11 HR and 39 RBI in just 71 games. Complete confidence in a 30 HR season, Bride walks at a career 10.6% clip while striking out less than 20% of the time. Someone that can platoon with Tork, and if he doesn’t work out, I love this option. With a wRC+ of 123 in 2024, I see him taking a huge stride into 2024, and with very little swing-and-miss in his game, it gives a low-risk high-reward feeling.
Contract (from MIA): 1-year, $800K, $800K AAV
Salary Remaining for 2025: $63,758,606
Second Base
Jonathan India
Jonathan India will lock down 2B, as he took some massive strides in his age 27 season in Cincinnati. Being at the top of the league in BB% (12.65%), India was an on-base machine slashing .248/.357/.392 in 2024. Another guy with hardly any swing-and-miss in his game, and just a 18.4% Chase%, one of the best in the league. He’s above average on the bases and defensively, and still see potential for a 20 SB season. Coming off a near career best 2.8 fWAR, India has appeared to continually refine his approach.
Contract (from CIN): 2-year, $8.8M, $4.4M AAV
Salary Remaining for 2025: $59,358,606
Shortstop
Tommy Edman
Tommy Edman will be ‘Mr. Do-It-All for this club, and will play a multitude of positions, at a platinum glove level. He, like many others on this squad, is year-over-year, one of the best in the league in terms of not striking out (16.6%) and Chase% (16.1%). In his last full season (2023), he slashed .237/.294/.417 and accumulated 2.4 fWAR. Truly one of the most versatile players in the MLB, and sticking him on an expansion team feels like the perfect move and he’ll bounce between IF and OF.
Contract (from STL/LAD): 2-year, $16.5M, $8.25M AAV
Salary Remaining for 2025: $51,108,606
Ha-Seong Kim
While he doesn’t offer a ton of power upside, Kim is a perfect infielder for this squad as he can play at any position needed, and well with 4OAA in 2024. After his 2024 campaign where he racked up 2.6 fWAR, Kim slashed .233/.330/.370 with 11 HR, 60 RBI, and 22 SB. The biggest green flag with Kim is his feel for the strike zone. With one of the best BB% in the League (12.3%), Kim is also one of the best at not coming out of his approach with a Chase% of 18.6% and WHIFF% of 15.9%. I love the multi-year deal for Kim to secure an on-base machine and versatile glove.
Contract: 2-year, $24M, $12M AAV
Salary Remaining for 2025: $39,108,606
Third Base
Josh H. Smith
Josh H. Smith showed flashes of a breakout in his first full season in the MLB, playing in 149 games, slashing .258/.337/.394 with 13 HR and 62 RBI. While his BB% dropped from his first few stints in the MLB, the K% has slowly dropped year to year, and the Hard Hit% has risen every year. Everything points to Smith continuing to make strides as a legitimate contributor.
Contract (from TEX): 1-year, $2.6M, $2.6M AAV
Salary Remaining for 2025: $36,508,606
Left Field
Tyler O’Neill
Tyler O’Neill is coming off a near career year offensively after getting a much needed change of scenery from St Louis. Crushing 31 HR, 61 RBI with a .847 OPS and 131 wRC+ in his first year in Boston, this is the big ticket slugger of free agency. While there is a good chunk of strikeout in his game (33.6%), he still walks at a 11.2% clip, and so much of this lineup has been built around good approach and on base, it’s time to add the big bat. In 2024, he was on of the best in terms of xSLG (.491), Barrel% (17.3%), and Hard-Hit% (48.8%), all pointing towards the fact the extra base hits and home runs will continue to flood into his age 30 season.
Contract: 4-year, $72M, $18M AAV
Salary Remaining for 2025: $18,508,606
Brendan Donovan
Brendan Donovan had probably the sneakiest year of anyone in 2024, clubbing 14 HR, 73 RBI with a 115 wRC+ and career best 3.2 fWAR. With nearly a 1-1 K/BB ratio, Donovan gets fanned only 12.4% of the time (8th in MLB), while still walking at a 7.2% clip. Donovan provides more defensive versatility bouncing between LF and 2B, and while the power upside isn’t crazy, he’s one of the best in Square-Up% at 35.2%, and with hardly any swing-and-miss in his game, this is a great grab.
Contract (From STL): 1-year, $4M, $4M AAV
Salary Remaining for 2025: $14,508,606
Center Field
Parker Meadows
Parker Meadows got his 2nd cup of tea in the Big Leagues in 2024 racking up 298 PA where he’d slash .244/.310/.433 with a 111 wRC+ and a 2.1 fWAR. While nothing statistically jumps off the page, I’m a full blown believer in the 25-year old. I love the tools and his 6’4 frame, and despite the 25.5% K%, the Chase% is pretty solid at 25.8%. Meadows classified as a burner with one of the best sprint speeds in the League, and has potential for Gold Glove defense with +6 Fielding Run Value and 7 OAA. Fully believe 20/30 is in the tank if the OBP can get where it needs to be.
Contract: 1-year, $800K, $800K AAV
Salary Remaining for 2025: $13,708,606
Right Field
Michael Conforto
Michael Conforto put up a sneaky good 2023 in San Francisco, slashing .237/.309/.450 with 20 HR and 66 RBI, accounting for a 1.3 fWAR over 130 games played. Conforto unlocked something at the plate we hadn’t seen since 2020, with an xSLG of .488 and 11.8% Barrel% accounting for a Hard-Hit% of 46%; I believe he has found his swing again. He is not horrible in the strikeout or walk category, but he provides some more thump to this lineup for a fairly cheap price tag out of free agency heading into his age-32 season.
Contract: 2-year, $9.6M, $4.8M AAV
Salary Remaining for 2025: $8,908,606
Blake Perkins
Rounding out Charlotte Aviators is who I believe to be the best “4th outfielder” in the MLB, picking him from Milwaukee Blake Perkins. As one of the best defensive outfielders in the league in terms of Feilding Run-Value (+9), OAA (11), Arm Strength (87th%), and, of course, Sprint Speed (97th%). The offensive upside is still there despite the slash line of .240/.316/.332, Perkins walked at a 9.7% clip and swiped 23 bags in 121 games in 2024. His Squared-Up% (30.6%) points to excellent barrel control, and as long as he can continue to get on at a .320+ clip, his speed can take over, and he can be a huge piece of this club playing any outfield position at an extremely high level.
Contract (from MIL): 1-year, $800K, $800K AAV
Salary Remaining for 2025: $8,108,606
Wrap-Up
I fully believe in the team I constructed, you may hate it but I believe this team would a potential playoff team in year one, and would have a ton of room to grow through seasons. Stay tuned for part two as I build this team into popular baseball simulator, Out of the Park Baseball 25 and dive into the full results of how this team would perform over the course of a season.
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