Hendry Mendez has the potential to be a Top 50 Prospect.
Hendry Mendez was part of the package that sent Jhoan Duran to the Phillies. The 21-year old has an extremely interesting profile that could make him an MLB regular for a long time.
“Most things that last have the slowest start. - Dave”
Mendez was signed by the Brewers in 2021 for around $800,000, but wasn’t ranked in the MLB Top 30 for International Prospects of that year. Although Mendez showed exceptional discipline and bat-to-ball skills in the DSL and CPX-levels, he wasn’t neccessarily a prospect on people’s radar - he played 40 games, hit .316 with a single home run. As a 17-year old at the time, he impressed with his 81 Contact%, 8.1% K% and 12.3% BB.
Both 2022 and 2023 were quite…uneventful seasons. Mendez struggled immensely to deliver any real, in-game power, only hitting a total of 30 extra-base hits, eight of which were home runs, over a 167-game span across Single-A (105 games) and High-A (62 games). He still showed off his impressive bat-to-ball skills through his 15.5% K%, mid-80’s Contact% and a consistent SwStr% below 10%.
However, all of this matters very little when your GB% of 62% results in very little in-game power output and a batting average that doesn’t creep past .250. His tendency to hit the ball on the ground completely neutralized all other aspects of his incredible profile, also shown by his subpar BABIP’s of .286 & .274 - extremely low numbers for a player in the lower minors.
Mendez eventually got traded from the Brewers to the Phillies in the deal for Oliver Dunn, and started the 2024 season as part of the Phillies organization.
2024: A step in the right direction.
Mendez’s stock was still low as ever. He had all the physical and technical traits to be a great prospect, but no production results in no attention, it’s that simple. He spent the entire 2024 season at High-A, finishing the season with a .284/.386/.391 slash line, 19 doubles and three home runs in 84 games. Although he wasn’t exactly clearing the fences on a regular basis, there were some noticeable changes:
BB% improved drastically from 8.5% to 13.9%.
K% improved from 14.7% to 13.9%
Mendez was starting to use his ability to recognize pitches early in his advantage. He was less aggressive, decreasing his Swing% by 3.2% while improving his Contact% by 2.4% and SwStr% by 1.8%. He was effectively swinging less, but making more contact. Not only more contact, but better contact:
19 doubles in 84 games was a career-high.
Improved his LD% from 17.4% to 20%.
It still wasn’t enough to really make any noise, but the basis for a potential breakout was absolutely there. From 2022 to 2024, Mendez managed to decrease his GB% from a ridiculous 65% to 60% - still too high to book consistent success, but an improvement, and a trend that showed promise for the upcoming 2025 campaign.
2025: Less grounders, better results.
2025 has currently been a small breakout year for Mendez. He played 97 games at Double-A to a .299/.381/.434 slash line, hit 13 doubles and nine home runs. His nine home runs is nearly double his previous career-high (5 HR), and this is an extremely promising sign.
Mendez improved his in-game power output drastically while going up a level, playing an entire season at Double-A at 21 years old, an impressive feat. But that’s not all:
He further decreased his K% from 13.9% to 12.8%.
His .299 BA is a career-high, despite a league-average BABIP of .322.
He decreased his GB% by a fantastic 7.3%, down to 53.1% It’s still a number too high for consistent success, but a tremendous step forward.
He increased his LD% by 6.4% to 23.8%, which is another career-high.
He increased his overall Contact% by 3.3% to 86.1%, bringing him in elite contact territory.
He decreased his SwStr% from an already great 7.8% to 6.1%, which is among the best in the minor leagues.
Has an elite 19.3% Chase%.
90th percentile EV of 105.9 MPH, which is elite.
Practically, Mendez managed to nearly double his previous career-high in home runs while significantly decreasing his swing-and-miss and maintaining elite discipline. This, paired with his ability to hit the ball extremely hard gives him an extremely high ceiling, at least with the bat. He’s a below-average runner and isn’t neccessarily a great fielder either, with limited range - likely best fit for left-or-right field.
The Jackson Merrill comparison
Jackson Merrill’s breakout in 2024 was one that surprised even the most seasoned prospect watchers. And although Mendez hasn’t quite managed the results of Merrill at Double-A, the similarities are striking.
Merrill also started his career as a contact-first prospect, with his Contact% never dipping below 81% throughout his minor-league career and a SwStr% ranging anywhere from 7 to 9%. Coincidentally, he also registered a 59% GB% in his first Single-A season as a then 19-year old prospect. He then tweaked his swing and setup, resulting in a near-16% decrease in GB% and massively improved power, doubling both his career-highs in doubles and home runs. And obviously, the rest is pretty much history.
Both are left-handed hitters. Both are 6’3” and around 185 pounds as prospects. Both struggled with an abnormally high GB% in the early stages of their career. Both make contact at an elite rate. The comparison is made quickly when you have all those similarities. Obviously, there are differences too. Merrill was a year younger than Mendez, is definitely a better defender with much better speed & range in the outfield, while Mendez’s plate discipline clearly holds the upperhand over Merrill’s. And I’m not saying Mendez is going to be as good. But the similarities are too obvious to ignore.
Overall, Mendez is one of the most advanced hitters in the minor leagues when taking his age, level and overall advanced metrics into account, and he truly has potential to exceed all expectations in 2026 if he manages to keep lifitng the ball at a consistent rate, with true, 25-30 home run potential when it’s all said and done.
Thank you for reading,
Louis