Giancarlo Stanton Is Not A HOFer

Most Likely

Oct 22, 2024

I was scrolling through X yesterday and reading up on all the non-stories that pop up here in the dead period before the World Series hits. One in particular struck me.

“Is Giancarlo Stanton a Hall of Famer?”

Immediately, I knew the trap I would fall into if I posted this myself and said

“No, he isn’t.”

If you know me, you know I immediately posted it. The reaction, for the most part, was to be expected. We had some very angry Yankee fans going after me, saying he is a “Hall Of Famer right now if he retires!” Others, took a more analytical mindset and said, “Well, he will hit the 500 home run mark so that he will be in because of that.”

Look, if you think Stanton's hitting the 500 mark gives him an automatic ticket to the Hall of Fame, I am probably not going to change your mind. However, after analyzing the data I have compiled, I think you would at least agree that he is the worst of the 500 club.

What I did was take all members of the “500 Home Run Club” and rank Stanton against them with his current stats, if he maintained the same production, and if he regressed at a 12.5% rate.

A couple of quick notes.

First, you will not see any WAR rankings below. Why? Because Stanton, barring a miracle, will be the lowest in WAR by a significant amount.

David Ortiz is last in total bWAR amongst the 500 club with 55.3. If Giancarlos kept his current production for the next five years, he would still be below 50. Beyond that, Ortiz’s playoff numbers and career are just, and I am a biased Red Sox fan, far superior to Stanton’s.

Second, I started having issues calculating OPS and OPS+ when averaging the five years. I’m not a math guy, but history tells us they will dip. He is currently 25th in OPS and 24th in OPS+. Even if he maintained his current OPS + for the next five years, he would dip to at least 27th. As you will see, these rankings would not help him anyway.

Third, I am well aware that Giancarlo Stanton won an MVP. There are plenty of other players who won the MVP but did not get elected to the Hall of Fame.

Fourth, if you are going to come at me with “162 Game Average” garbage, go jump in a river. I want cold, hard stats, not some imaginary numbers that don’t mean anything because they didn’t happen.

Alright, let’s break it down.

Criteria

It's pretty simple; it is the “500 Home Run Club.” Initially, I was going to remove steroid users because I felt like that would cause conflict. However, Sam said I should include them, so I did.

There are 28 members of the “500 Home Run Club.” Here is a quick graphic of all those names.

Of course, if Stanton does go and hit 500 home runs this list would expand to 29. So, in all of the rankings you will see below keep in mind that they are out of 29.

Where He Currently Ranks

Alright, let’s just take where he currently ranks. I am doing this for all the Yankee fans saying, “He is a Hall of Famer right now.” Below is a graphic with Stanton’s career stats. I added Killebrew because a lot of people consider him the worst of the “500 Club.” You can see by the numbers that Stanton has a ways to go.

Alright, so let’s imagine Stanton retires right now. Where would he rank? Well, it's pretty low.

Home Runs: 29th
Plate Appearances: 29th
Hits: 29th
RBIs: 29th
Stolen Bases: 20th
Batting Average: 28th
OPS: 25th
OPS+: 24th
Strikeouts: 25th
Slugging: 20th

Let’s move on to the fun part.

Where He Ranks With 2024 Production Averaged Out Over Five More Years

I took Stanton’s 2024 stats and kept that production over the next five years. The chances of that happening are zero, but for argument’s sake, I did them. On the surface, his 2024 stats don’t pop off the page, but compared to his 2023 season. WOOF.

I am being GENEROUS by using Stanton’s 2024 stats as a marker here. So, let’s average this out and see where his career numbers would be if he matched his 2024 numbers for the next five years.

Home Runs: 564
Plate Appearances: 9,191
Hits: 2,036
RBIs: 1,463
Stolen Bases: 42
Strikeouts: 2,678
Batting Average: .251

Cool, he went over 500 home runs! He also is now the All-Time leader in strikeouts. Well, let’s see where this ranks him in the “500 Home Run Club.”

Home Runs: 14th
Plate Appearances: 28th
Hits: 28th
RBIs: 27th
Stolen Bases: 21st
Batting Average: 29th
Strikeouts: 29th

His only saving grace here is being ranked 14th in home runs. However, if you were to average out these rankings and compare them against all 29 other players, he would have the lowest average with 25.1

Couple that with his dead-last ranking in WAR, and you have the worst overall player in the “500 Home Run Club.”

But let’s keep going.

Where He Ranks With 12.5% Production Decrease Averaged Out Over Five More Years

There are a bunch of different models that you can use here for this. I am going sort of with the Bill James model.

Again, I am using his 2024 season as a baseline. This is generous of me to do, considering that 2024 was a major outlier as he was steadily regressing from 2019 onwards.

Let’s see what we get.

Home Runs: 534
Plate Appearances: 8,685
Hits: 1,929
RBIs: 1,384
Stolen Bases: 42
Strikeouts: 2,520
Batting Average: .242

Alright! Now Stanton is only the 3rd in career strikeouts. A big achievement! With this model, Stanton will still reach the 500-home run plateau. However, all his other numbers continue to slide.

Let’s see where he ranks now in the “500 Home Run Club.”

Home Runs: 19th
Plate Appearances: 28th
Hits: 28th
RBIs: 29th
Stolen Bases: 21st
Batting Average: 28th
Strikeouts: 29th

Again, his home run ranking is the only thing keeping him relevant at all. Averaging out these rankings, he has dropped from 25.1 to 26.

Ranking this against all the other members, he remains dead last, the closest being Willie McCovey (RIP) at 24.2

Final Thoughts

I get really annoyed when grunts on X go and start yelling things without having any numbers to back it up. Well, grunts, here are the numbers. Regardless, if Stanton keeps up this pace, he will be the worst member of the “500 Club,” with the only thing getting him in the Hall being his 500 home runs.

I will make my prediction right now and say I do not think Stanton will get into the Hall. Even with these averaged-out numbers, I just don’t think he deserves to be in. That being said, I don’t think he will hit the 500 mark. HOT TAKE.

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