Gavin Lux Trade Thoughts
A Blog by Will at Overdue Sports
Jeff Passan dropped yet another bomb on the baseball world this evening, announcing the trade of Gavin Lux to Cincinnati in return for outfield prospect Mike Sirota and a compensation pick. With the Dodgers singing international second-baseman Hye-Seong Kim, many in the Dodgers and baseball world saw this move coming, but I don’t think anyone anticipated the Reds as a possible suitor with their current roster holding Matt McClain. Obviously they will have some shuffling to do, but this isn’t the time, so let’s get into my thoughts.
The Reds grab a LHH second-baseman in Lux, who was one of the most highly touted prospects in 2019. Since then, his time in the MLB has been rather underwhelming, and filled with injury. Until 2024 that is. Lux had a full breakout in the second half of the season, tallying a 152 wRC+ (13th best in the MLB) with a .899 OPS, increased his Hard-Hit% by 12.2%, clubbed 16 2B, 7 HR, and drove in 26 RBI. This is a clear ‘sell-high’ for the Dodgers who had signed Lux’s replacement just a few days earlier, and the Reds get a guy who may just thrive in Great American Small-Park. Overall, I think this move for the Reds makes sense if there’s any thoughts of moving McClain to the outfield, and if Lux truly found his break out rather than catching lightning in a bottle, could be a spectacular move for a team I’m already extremely high on in 2025.
The Dodgers, well, quite frankly probably won’t miss Lux. The signing of Kim solves a lot of the question marks around the defense side of Lux’s game, and gives some freedom with not having to play Chris Taylor as much. In return, they received a College Baseball darling of mine, Mike Sirota from Northeastern University and a compensation pick (Mikey OC LOVES this). Sirota has the makings of a 5-tool player, but we’ve seen some of the power production dip from his senior year of college. With a lean and athletic build, Sirota has excellent bat-to-ball skills and some of, if not the best plate discipline and approach of the 2024 draft class. Sirota plays a mean Center Field patrolling with plus speed, tallying 19 SB in each of his last two college seasons. His simple swing, freakish bat speed, and big defensive upside, I love this grab for the Dodgers. Tons of college experience, and if they can tap into the power like he showed in his Sophomore year at Northeastern, can be a legit 20-20 guy in the Bigs.
While this might come back to haunt me, and the Dodgers, I think in the long term this can be a steal of a trade with the ceiling Sirota gives. And more draft stock is never a bad thing.
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