Fernando Tatis Jr. was incredible in 2021 for the San Diego Padres. The 22-year-old absolutely broke out, hitting 42 HRs, slashing .282/.364/.611, and finishing 3rd in the NL MVP voting in 130 games played. Tatis seemed destined to be one of Major League Baseball’s premier power hitters for the coming years.
Unfortunately for Tatis, the Padres, and their fans, things have not exactly gone to plan since that incredible 2021 season. A fractured bone in his left wrist kept him off the field for much of 2022 until a PED suspension in August permanently ended his 2022 season and caused him to miss the beginning of the 2023 season.
From 2023 to 2025, Tatis continued to perform well in San Diego; however, his HR and SLG percentages declined significantly. In nearly 400 games from 2023 to 2025, Tatis averaged a pedestrian 23.7 HRs per season. Furthermore, his SLG percentage dropped from .611 during the 2021 season to a combined .459 during the following three seasons.
Regardless of the significant power dip, Tatis was still a valuable player, all things considered, for San Diego. He was voted to the NL All-Star in 2024 and 2025; he won a pair of Gold Gloves in 2023 and 2025 and produced 13.9 bWAR over the course of the three seasons following his injury and suspension.
Many (including myself, who spent a 2nd-round draft pick selecting Tatis in my fantasy baseball draft) baseball analysts and fans hoped that Tatis’ power could return during the 2026 MLB season, especially after an impressive 6 games played and 26 plate appearances for the Dominican Republic National Team during the 2026 World Baseball Classic (.400/.539/.700 and 2 HRs).
Unfortunately, Tatis’ impressive WBC run did not translate to an impressive start to the 2026 MLB season.
Through his first 50 games played in 2026, Tatis did not hit a single home run. Furthermore, only 6 of his 44 hits during that timeframe were extra-base hits. His .238/.319/.276 slash line was cause for concern, as it seemed the former superstar was continuing to regress rather than improve.
On 5/30, during Fernando Tatis Jr.’s 56th game of the season, he finally hit his first HR of 2026. During June, Tatis knocked four more homers to bring his season total to 5 as the All-Star Break approached. Tatis was slashing .277/.340/.374 after coming back to life during June and July; however, his power numbers were still uncharacteristically low, and for only the second time in his MLB career, Tatis was not named an All-Star.
This is purely speculation, so do not quote me or take this as fact in any way, but it seems like Tatis may have taken that All-Star snub personally. He came out of the gates hitting very well following the break. In the 5 games following the All-Star break, Tatis hit 3 HRs and knocked in 9 runs.
Fernando Tatis Jr. finished out July hitting well and increased his batting average and SLG percentage to .286 and .403, respectively. His slugging percentage jumped nearly 30 points in two weeks.
His excellent hitting has continued into August as well, where he now has 15 total HRs (10 of which have come prior to the break), and his SLG percentage has jumped up to .434 as of August 20th.
So what exactly happened? The answer is simpler than you might imagine: his luck changed.
According to FanGraphs, during the 1st half of 2026, Tatis’ SLG (.374) was about 50 points lower than his xSLG (.420). During the 2nd half, in only about 30 games played, the difference between his SLG (.624) and his xSLG (.650) was only about 25 points. The disparity between Tatis’ SLG and xSLG was most apparent during the first two months of the season. During the months of March and April, Tatis’ xSLG was .407; however, his SLG percentage was a mere .287. The gap shrank during May and June, when the difference was only 49 points (.353 SLG compared to .402 xSLG) and 18 points (.509 SLG and .527 xSLG), respectively, until SLG percentage finally surpassed its expected value during the month of July (.466 SLG compared to .430 xSLG).
Furthermore, while his HardHit percentage hasn’t altered much, staying around 52% (despite a significant decrease during the month of May, where it was a mere 37%), Tatis’ Barrel % in the 2nd half has increased to 16.1% from 10.7% during the first 95 games of the 2026 season.
Tatis has hit the ball hard all season; however, he began barreling the ball up more following the All-Star break and has been experiencing more luck than he was during the first 3 months of the season.
What exactly does this case study show us? Two things, in my opinion. First, Fernando Tatis Jr. is still capable of being an elite power hitter (10 HRs in 30 games since the All-Star break). Second, baseball is weird, and sometimes certain players are luckier than others, and that luck can drastically affect how we view and evaluate individual players.