Favorite College Baseball Underdogs
Who doesn't love a good underdog story? Here's my favorite 3 & 4 seed to come out of a Regional (not betting advice)
Take a deep breath and smell the air. It’s nearly June, which means one thing—college baseball postseason. If you aren’t following us, you might be behind on what happened in the Conference Tournaments, but they were amazing. But now comes the real fun: I shared my opinions on the regional field and some of the atrocities committed by the NCAA (big shock); regionals are right around the corner.
Everyone loves a good underdog story, so I’ll be diving into my favorite 3 and 4-seed to come out of their regional. First, let me lay out my personal criteria: I take very heavily into account the draw; the best 3 or 4 seed won’t necessarily come out, but I look for teams that played well on the road and pitch really well, specifically in the bullpen, and match up well against the higher seeds.
Favorite 3 Seed: Oregon Ducks
The Ducks find themselves heading south of Eugene to Santa Barabara for their regional host, the UCSB Gauchos. Joined by 2-seed University of San Diego Toreros and 4-seed Fresno State Bulldogs. This is a fantastic draw for Oregon, and while I’m very high on UCSB, specifically the pitching, I also have some money tied up in them to make the CWS, and I’m concerned.
I love this draw for the style of play factor alone. The Big West/Cali schools have always made their bread and butter great pitching, which they have. The Gauchos have multiple arms that have previously and current All-Americans, and it’s not a small feat to tally a win against them. But they typically don’t slug, rely on a lot of small ball, and death by paper cuts.
While Fresno State poses no real threat to this Regional, the Terros of San Diego will be a very good battle in game one for the Ducks. They play a very similar brand to UCSB. They have a damn good pitching staff and have been battle-tested, losing a series to Texas and winning a series against Arizona.
So, let’s dive into the Ducks. This was a team I heavily debated taking to win the PAC-12 preseason, and for good reason. They’re extremely balanced; they hit, hit for power, and pitch really well. The rotation trio of Grayson Grisnell, RJ Gordon, and Kevin Seitter has been nothing short of fantastic this year. My guess is we’ll see Gordon in game 1 against USD, and pending a win, we get Grisnell & Seitter to try and move on.
It's an extremely balanced rotation that is set up for every stage of the postseason and can be so dangerous if they’re on. The main anchors of the bullpen are Bradley Mullan, Logan Mercado, and Ryan Featherston, who combined for 78 appearances this year.
Grayson Grisnell: 6-2, 4.21 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 68.1 IP, 88K/38BB, .190 B/AVG
RJ Gordon: 7-5, 4.80 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 84.1 IP, 80K/38BB, .244 B/AVG
Kevin Seitter: 7-4, 5.08 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 72.2 IP, 73K/33BB, .253 B/AVG
Bradley Mullan: 26 APP, 1.66 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 38 IP, 33K/22BB, .203 B/AVG
Logan Mercado: 25 APP, 4.42 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 36.2 IP, 41K/19BB, .265 B/AVG
Ryan Featherston: 17 APP, 3.08 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 38 IP, 38K/15BB, .187 B/AVG
The Ducks offense has every weapon to compete with the pitching of their Big West foes and beat them. This is the best power-hitting offense in the Santa Barbara Regional, and I don’t believe it’s close. Led by the deadly duo of Bryce Boettcher and Jeffery Heard, the Ducks slashed .283/.383/.493 with 90 HR and 360 RBI. The OBP is great, even for the guys in the lineup who struggle in the AVG department. My knock on the Ducks? The K%. Ranking 3rd in this regional, and if they’re not clicking, the Gauchos & Torreros pitching staffs can feast on this weak spot.
Jeffery Heard: .299/.386/.469, 4 HR, 30 RBI,
Bryce Boettcher: 284/.377/.511, 11 HR, 34 RBI, 13-15 SB
Jacob Walsh: .269/.363/.577, 17 HR, 55 RBI
Mason Neville: .260/.355/.710, 15 HR, 41 RBI
Drew Smith: .308/.419/.438, 3 HR, 26 RBI
This team was a big peaks-and-valleys group through the season, and if they can limit the lows, watch out for a run.
Ducks Keys to Victory:
Limit K’s
Run-up pitch counts
Quality Starts
Manage the valleys
Continue to get on base
Favorite 4 Seed: Evansville Purple Aces
The Evansville Purple Aces were a team that truly intrigued me after 2023, after a 33-17 campaign, even though they missed a regional due to in-conference foe Indiana St taking the conference tournament title. The Purple Aces got their revenge this year, knocking off the Sycamores and securing an auto bid. They’ll head to Raleigh, where North Carolina St hosts, South Carolina takes the 2-seed, and James Madison rounds out the field as the 3-seed.
Now, I’m not going to talk your ear off on how this team is incredibly slept on, but I like what they bring to the table, and they’re battle-tested. They’ve played some really great competition in Troy, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Purdue, Indiana St, and Indiana. Plenty of Top-75 RPI competition, and despite being 5-10 in those games, I’ll take the battle-tested team to get fired up in the postseason and play with nothing to lose.
They flash a solid 1-2 punch in the rotation with Shane Harris and Kenton Deverman, and while the bullpen isn’t anything to write home about, either of these two guys have the stuff and control to limit damage and pump out a quality start.
Shane Harris: 8-6, 3.55 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 66 IP, 65K/24BB, .241 B/AVG
Kenton Deverman: 8-1, 4.03 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 98.1 IP, 77K/28BB, .270 B/AVG
The offense is a lot of fun, and for them to make a run, they may have to win some barnburners. Slashing .302/.410/.507 as a team with 7/9 qualified hitters hitting over .290. Headlined by some big sluggers, Mark Shallenberger and Kip Fougerousse. This club, like many mid-majors, has tons of age. When programs aren’t pumping out draft picks, especially with the shortened draft, many of these guys will be suiting up for the last time. And from personal experience, that motivation goes a long way.
Mark Shallenberger: .388/.531/.710, 15 HR, 57 RBI
Kip Fougerousse: .346/.424/.646, 17 HR, 59 RBI
Don’t be surprised to see the 4-seed punch the bully in the mouth and steal a game in this regional. We’ve seen the very hot and cold clubs in North Carolina St and South Carolina, and if they don‘t show up ready to play, could easily get taken off-guard by the workhorse arms and experienced bats the Purple Aces roll out.
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