Fantasy Baseball "Sleeper" Pitchers for 2025
A Blog By Nick
I put out my Sleeper Hitters piece a few weeks back, but now it’s time for some arms!
If you’re looking for pitcher “busts” I have them in my Fantasy Baseball “Busts” Piece.
I do use and appreciate advanced metrics, and analytics, but I won’t be spewing them out in this piece. My blurbs will essentially be a summarization of why I like these guys, and what I think 2025 can look like for them.
My fantasy blogs are all driven towards standard roto scoring, and all of my ADP data, is from FantasyPros.
Let’s get to it.
Nick Pivetta, Padres (209 ADP)
I loved Nick Pivetta entering last season. I wouldn’t even say people that drafted him were burned entirely. He had a 4.14 ERA, and one horrendous start at Coors (you should’ve benched him then anyways). I agree he was a disappointment, but I think it was kind of another “worst case” type outcome for Pivetta. He then went on the shelf with a flexor strain on his right elbow (pitching arm).
Pivetta has had two home parks in his career. Citizens Bank Park, and Fenway Park. For pitchers, The Bank is 4th worst in HR park factors, and Fenway is 2nd worst in overall park factors. Now he will be heading to PetCo Park, which is the 28th BEST ranked park for pitchers, according to BaseballSavant’s Park Factors.
The Padres offense will allow a win to be in play for Pivetta in most of his starts. Pivetta will be around 1.2 K’s per inning, will be around a 1.15-1.20 WHIP, and in a best case scenario will have a mid-3’s ERA. His xERA last year was 3.51. I think 3.75 is realistic for Pivetta.
10+ wins, 180+ K’s, 3.75 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP around pick 200 is a great value.
Nick Lodolo, Reds (237 ADP)
I don’t think people need to be told anything about Nick Lodolo that they haven’t already heard. But last year to me, felt like Lodolo was rushed back, and was off balance from the start. He wasn’t fully recovered from a leg injury in the Spring, so he didn’t get a normal Spring Training; then he ended up getting a blister on his finger, which actually lead to all sorts of grip and nerve issues for him. There was actually some pretty glaring data to back this up:
In 2023 his Curveball had 15.0 inches of break, and in 2024, it had 11.4 inches of break (baseballsavant).
I honestly have no idea what a statline from Nick Lodolo would look like in a full season. It’s not happened at this level. I don’t think he can be your ace, but I think he can be an SP2 if he’s right. If we do get 150+ IP from Lodolo this year, there is no doubt in my mind that he will be a top 30 pitcher in fantasy — he is being drafted as the 70th…
Walker Buehler, Red Sox (247 ADP)
Alright, alright. 2nd Tommy John this, 5.38 ERA that… I think if I had 100 people who knew baseball relatively well, and had them guess how old Walker Buehler was, they would all say older than 30. But he’s just 30, he signed a “prove it” deal in Boston, who has a great pitching department.
Something clicked for Buehler in the playoffs last season. I personally was ready to dismiss this, and chalk it up to adrenaline — but then he looked like he did in October this week in Spring Training. If the Red Sox get a guy close to that, then he is a huge value at this ADP.
I want to clarify, that I personally don’t believe we will see “Cy Young candidate” Walker Buehler this year, or ever again — but I do believe that he will be a fantastic SP2/3 for your team, with respectable ratios, K numbers, and a high potential for wins on this Boston team that I believe will win 90 games.
Jesus Luzardo, Phillies (282 ADP)
Jesus Luzardo, man. Some of my “day one” friends, might be chuckling at this one. I have been tooting the Luzardo horn since his prospect days for the A’s. I had him everywhere for his 2023 breakout; I did remain level headed in 2024, and passed on his top dollar draft price. But now, he’s back in the late 200’s!
Luzardo will always have blow up games. That part of his game may not ever go away. But Luzardo has very strong strikeout upside, and is on a “phantastic” Phillies team (had to do that) that will be in the mix for wins regularly. As far as ratios go, I mentioned the blow up starts, I think at this point we know who and what Luzardo is. So I wouldn’t expect much better than a 3.50 ERA, and a 1.20 WHIP. But I would almost suggest that he is a shoe in for that, as well as 1.2 is K per inning, with high probability for double digit wins.
DJ Herz, Nationals (347 ADP)
I may be a little too high on DJ Herz, which is odd because I wouldn’t say I am infatuated with him and his stuff — I just feel like people are dismissing him for lack of MLB track record.
Last year, Herz came on to the scene, had a 3.26 xERA, and had 106 K in 88.2 IP. He also had a sub .224 xBA on all three of his main pitches (knuckle curve got crushed, but he only threw it 3% of the time). Herz MiLB track record is fine as well, mid-3’s ERA, 1.20 ish WHIP, and 1.4 K per inning (lol).
But the strikeout upside is really why I like Herz. If you told me that he has a 4.00 ERA at the end of the year I wouldn’t be surprised. But at this price, if Herz tossed 160+ innings with 200 K’s and a 4.00 ERA, I’d count this take as a success. I think he has better than a 4.00 ERA, and I think it’s fair to suggest it to be possible.
Andrew Painter, Phillies (352 ADP)
Andrew Painter is a draft and stash. He won’t be IL eligible, so keep that in mind. I don’t have a ton to write here, because the name and profile kind of speaks for itself.
Andrew Painter will be up at the latest in June, but when he does come to the big leagues, He will have a Skenes “lite” impact. He was the number one pitching prospect pre Tommy John for a reason. Go look up his MiLB stats if you want good laugh. Painter can legitimately be one of the best pitchers on your team down the stretch of the summer.
Dustin May, Dodgers (395 ADP)
Dustin May might grab this last Dodgers rotation spot and never give it back. I am aware that Ohtani will be back on the mound at some point, but we can’t pretend that Dodgers pitchers don’t take frequent trips to the IL. I think May will be useful all season long. Another post Tommy John guy that I am excited to see, freed from injury.
May will be pitching in a tough division, and will likely have a start or two in Coors, so maybe bench him there. But May has always had really solid ratios, and will always be in the mix for wins on this LA juggernaut. Don’t expect more than 1 K per inning from this sinker baller, however.
The coolest thing about the pitchers that you draft this late, is if May is the long reliever (he won’t get sent down because he has zero options remaining), you can just drop him, and pick up another guy who is intriguing in shallow leagues. In deeper leagues, just hang on to him, because he is much better than Tony Gonsolin, and a Dodgers pitcher will take a trip to the IL at some point. Bobby Miller will be competing with him as well, but I’m don’t think I can take him too seriously at this point.
Kris Bubic, Royals (395 ADP)
Bubic is all but assumed to be the Royals 5th starter this season. He’ll be in a great ballpark for suppressing home runs, as well as a pitcher’s division.
Bubic has a 3 pitch arsenal, with a sinker that he rarely threw last year as the 4th. He seemed to have ditched the curveball for his disgusting slider (11 inches of break). He was out of the pen when he returned last year, so I’m not quite sure what he will look like as a starter as far as velocity goes, and strikeout stuff. But I am intrigued, and I really want him on my teams.
Osvaldo Bido, Athletics (464 ADP)
I told Will from
, that my goal this offseason was to find the next Athletic’s player that nobody was talking about, that could be great! I ended up on Bido.Osvaldo was on a few of my teams down the stretch last season, and it was a blast. Last season he had FIVE pitches with a sub .200 xBA against. WHAT? Now, I don’t know how real that is. He had a 2.72 xERA in 63.1 IP in 2024, with 63 K’s.
He won’t be as much a wins threat as some of the guys on this list, but the A’s could be pretty fun this season, especially if Bido is even somewhat close to what he was last season.
Bido doesn’t have the best MiLB track record, so I worried that this was a flash in the pan, but there is some real changes he made. He raised his 4 seam, and cutter usage, and lowered his sinker usage. He also lowered his arm slot from 37 degrees, to 34 degrees.
The “bad” here, is that he will be pitching in a Minor League ballpark this season, that is expected to be pretty hitter friendly. Oakland also had a ton of foul territory for pop ups to turn into outs. There will be a lot less of that.
Definitely my biggest blurb on any of these guys. Go get Bido (unless you’re in my leagues)!
Michael Soroka, Nationals (546 ADP)
This is probably a name that some of you haven’t heard in a while! But the former Braves standout pitched pretty (terribly) for the White Sox last season, but now signed a deal with the Nationals. I don’t know why, but I’m just intrigued. I think this Nationals team can be sneaky, and if Soroka can complete this long road recovering and be close to what he was in Atlanta, he will be a fun player to have on your 15-teamers.
There is no strikeout upside here, but Soroka has the potential to pitch deep into games and be a ratio merchant for your team.
Kyle Wright, Royals (596 ADP)
Another former Brave! This one really doesn’t have any hard analysis too, but this is almost pick 600!
Kyle Wright was an obvious overachiever in his 2022 All-Star campaign, and then had a shoulder injury that ended his 2023, and put him out for all of 2024. The Royals in early 2024 swapped a previously well regarded prospect, Jackson Kowar for him.
I think that Wright can still contribute to some extent. He’s in a great park, and a great division to pitch in, and what if he is just a good pitcher that overachieves his underlying metrics? At this late in the draft, I want to scoop up Wright just to be on board if that is in fact the case!
Kyle Hart, Padres (676 ADP)
It’s funny that any time there is an extreme case of something, people want to find what the “next” thing it will be in the coming season. Last year it was Erick Fedde, coming over from winning the "equivalent of the Cy Young in the KBO, and then being a solid MLB arm. This year I think it could be Kyle Hart. He did the same thing as Fedde in the KBO award wise, and is pretty much guaranteed the 5th spot in the Padres rotation.
To be completely transparent, I’m not sure if Hart will amount to anything in 2025. If he stinks, drop him. But I am excited to take him as a flier. He has a great park to pitch in, and is surrounded by some pretty sharp pitching minds.
No Reliever Pitchers, what?
I don’t have any sleepers here, but I have advice:
I play in mostly saves leagues, so my advice there, is draft a guy early and lock in one of the studs! I like to grab a middle of the pack guy like Kenley Jansen, Alexis Diaz, or Trevor Megill. Then draft a wildcard/handcuff guy for the third slot. That advice may be awful for you, but it’s worked for me. There are always closing opportunities that open up during the season; so spend your faab there, and capitalize on that.
I don’t have the best Saves+Holds league advise. I don’t play in enough of those leagues to give credible advise.
If you play in a H2H Categories league, punting saves is actually a sick option in my opinion. Pass early on closers and grab another big bat or ace! Late when league mates are scooping closers, grab your sleeper hitters/pitchers. The “all SP” strategy has worked for me in H2H leagues. Try to win: K’s W’s and the hitting categories. I am a firm believer that anybody can win ratios on any given week in a H2H week. If you can stream SP’s on the waiver wire in daily leagues, do that!
I high advise against punting categories in a roto league.
Thanks For Reading!
As always, I appreciate anybody who is willing to support myself and/or The Skippers View. I hope this piece can be of use to you in your draft(s).
Go check out my stuff on X, @nicksMLBpicks.