To start this out, I have a couple things that I’d like to preface:
I kind of hate the word “sleeper.” I guess it is meant for players that people are sleeping on. But I feel like the fantasy industry has so many people putting good content out there, and analyzing players, that there aren’t any real “sleepers” anymore. But it’s the name that everybody still uses, so I’m rocking with it.
This is also geared towards category leagues. Roto or head to head. I don’t really cover points leagues. For what it’s worth, I think these guys are values in any format.
Let’s get to it!
Catcher
Sean Murphy
Catcher #16, and 222 ADP on NFC.
I’m happy to start this piece off with Sean Murphy. When I did my rankings, he was the one player that I actually scratched my head at while looking at his ADP, and where other analysts/websites have him ranked.
I have Sean Murphy ranked as my Catcher 7 for this season. He will be hitting in what I believe will be the highest scoring offense in baseball this season.
The two things that I would imagine people consider while being low on Sean Murphy, are the health concerns, and Braves catching prospect Drake Baldwin. But I don’t see Baldwin diminishing any value that Murphy has for 2025.
The Braves traded for Murphy a couple of years ago, and I feel like haven’t gotten that validation for it yet. I think this is finally the year where the trade pays off for the Braves. d’Arnaud is out of the picture, so he should play every game aside from scheduled rest days.
Sean Murphy has Top 5 upside at catcher.
.260 AVG, 25 HR, 80 R, 80 RBI is a realistic outlook for his 2025.
In 2023, he was on pace for even better than that: .271 xBA, 30 HR, 95 R, 95 RBI.
First Base
Spencer Horwitz
1B #29, and 364 ADP on NFC.
Spencer Horwitz was traded to the Pirates this winter, and I’m pretty excited for him to be there.
Fangraphs Roster Resource has him in a strong side platoon and batting 6th, behind Joey Bart. I don’t really see that being the case. I think he could hit cleanup for them vs RHP.
Horwitz has struggled vs LHP in the big leagues, but in his MiLB career his splits vs LHP were not as bad. I think vs RHP he would hit closer to the top of the order, and if they do play him vs LHP, he’ll drop down in the order.
I see Horwitz as a 20+ HR bat, that also has 2B eligibility. And that can be especially helpful in daily leagues.
Just to be clear, I don’t see Horwitz being a top 10 first baseman, but I think he provides much more value than his ADP says.
Horwitz is my 22nd ranked 1B.
Second Base
Brandon Lowe
2B #22, and 239 ADP on NFC
Prayer Circle time. *Brandon Lowe, please stay healthy*
Brandon Lowe was on pace to hit 35 Home runs in 2023, and 2024, but got hurt. Last year he played 107 games and hit 21… That was 3rd among 2B.
If we do get a full season of Lowe, you’re looking at 80+ R/RBI and 30+ HR, around .250. After pick 200? Sign me up.
If you read my “unpopular takes” blog, you may remember what I said about Steinbrenner Field in Tampa. That applies for the Tampa offense. That stat line I put above, could be the LOW end of that if he is healthy. I mention health so much regarding him, because that is the only concern. The production will be there.
If you are short on steals at this point in the draft, go with Zack Gelof instead. He just missed the cut as a sleeper, but is going a bit ahead of Lowe. Gelof will be a legit 20/20 threat in 2025, and is also in a MiLB ballpark for home games.
Lowe is my 8th ranked 2B (I haven’t updated that publicly).
Shortstop
Trevor Story
SS #24, and 243 ADP on NFC
Yup. I am doing this again. Red Sox fans, and fantasy believers all over the world last season were robbed of a vintage Trevor Story season. He fractured his shoulder diving for a shot off of Mike Trout’s bat early in 2024.
This year will be different.
Trevor is a 20/30 threat. No, not a threat. If he is healthy, a guarantee. I don’t expect him to hit .290 ever again, But .250, 20 HR, 30 SB while batting around Duran, Casas, and Devers? Another guy after pick 200? That’ll play.
Trevor is also taking a leadership role among the guys in the Boston clubhouse. It appeared so last year, and looks the same this year. The Red Sox paid him to produce for them, and I think that this is the season he earns his check.
Story is my 19th ranked SS, which will only go higher…
Third Base
Connor Norby
3B #22, and 270 ADP on NFC
Connor Norby has the skillset to go 20/20 and hit .280. The counting stats may be lower, as he is on the Marlins. But as the 3B board looks right now, Norby is the last guy at his ADP that can go 20/20 with that average.
He is just going to be in his first full MLB season, so there may be growing pains, and he is also on a terrible team. But that is all baked into the price. This guy has the “it” to be great. Anybody that is familiar with the East Carolina baseball program knows that they produce some dogs.
Norby is my 14th ranked 3B.
HM: Miguel Vargas… 3B #39, and 559 ADP on NFC (#27 for me)
Outfielder #1
Garrett Mitchell
OF #64, and 264 ADP on NFC
Garrett Mitchell just hasn’t been able to stay healthy, which is a trend with a lot of these guys, and is why they are such values. But I feel like Mitchell’s ADP is even more of a value, just because people aren’t exactly sure what he is capable of.
Mitchell is another 20/30 guy, and can get there with ease. He has 95th percentile speed. His power isn’t by any means elite or prototypical, but American Family Field is 3rd in Park Factors for left handed power, so 20 isn’t a reach for him. The batting average also won’t kill you, but he won’t be a contributor there. He’ll likely be around .245.
Mitchell is slotted in at the cleanup spot for Milwaukee. There is a path here for him to have a final line of:
20 HR, 30+ SB, 80 R/RBI, .245 AVG.
He has top 30 outfielder upside, that you can get around the 60th outfielder in drafts.
Outfielder #2
Michael Conforto
OF #78, and 347 ADP on NFC
The newly acquired outfielder for the World Series Champion Dodgers, is one of “my guys” for 2025. It isn’t going to be a sexy name or profile, but he is going remarkably late, and will be a 3 category contributor, that won’t hurt you in AVG.
He is getting a massive home park upgrade for left handed power. Jumping from Oracle Park at 28, to Dodger Stadium at 6 according to Savant’s Park Factors.
My outlook for Conforto is: 25 HR, .250 AVG, 70+ R/RBI.
No matter where Conforto hits in this Dodgers lineup, there will be ample opportunity for counting stats. Whether he is knocking in Teo in the middle of the lineup, or being knocked in by Ohtani when the lineup turns. There really isn’t anywhere that you can go wrong.
The Dodgers also signed him very early in the offseason. Just by reading between the lines, it makes me think that they had him circled from the start.
Conforto is my 54th ranked outfielder. I think his outlook is similar to Lourdes Gurriel Jr. who is going 130 picks earlier.
Outfield #3
Victor Scott II
OF #93, and 518 ADP on NFC
I’m not going to write a ton about Scott. I’ll keep it simple.
Legit 60 steal upside. He isn’t in a platoon (yet), and the Cardinals offense actually isn’t bad, so I think he get some runs as well at the turn of the lineup. He is slotted as the nine hitter, which should be accurate. I think his UPSIDE at avg is .240.. So just know that he is a steals specialist, and his upside is that he might not completely kill you at avg.
He is a former highly regarded prospect, so I think the Cardinals give him a nice leash to figure it out at the big league level. I’m excited for him as a ‘post-hype” sleeper type.
Thanks for reading!
I’ll have my sleeper pitchers out shortly as well. I am still finishing those rankings up, so I feel that it’d be thrown together if I wrote about my sleepers without all of that ironed out.
You can find all of my rankings on the “nicksMLBpicks” board on the chalkboard app. It’s free. I also post them on Twitter (X) @nicksMLBpicks.