Fantasy Baseball "Busts" for 2025
A Blog By Nick
I think it’s really important for me to preface this with the fact that I don’t actually enjoy writing negative things about players. It’s just a part of this game. I enjoyed writing my Sleepers piece much more.
I also want to make it clear that the term “bust” doesn’t always mean a player will suck, and tank your team. It can mean that — but I want to emphasize that some of these players are not busts but are “overvalued” by their Average Draft Position.
Lastly, all of my fantasy content and rankings are directed toward standard 5x5 roto, weekly lineups. Most is still interchangeable, but keep that in mind if you are a points league player, or H2H 5x5 with daily lineups.
Logan O’Hoppe, LAA
162 FantasyPro’s ADP, 10th Catcher. My 15th Catcher.
2024: .244 AVG, 20 HR, 64 R, 56 RBI, 2 SB
O’Hoppe was actually my favorite catcher to draft last year. In the first half, he was solid. The second half was pretty dreadful, though (.578 OPS after the All-Star break, bad). He also had a 29.7 K% for the full season, which was alarming. It’s the same skillset on a talented player that will have another year of experience under his belt. So why am I labeling him as a bust?
The Angels signed Travis d’Arnaud this Winter, and I think that he will take away a lot of games played and at-bats for O’Hoppe. Fangraphs also has O’Hoppe projected to bat 7th for the Halos. Slotted in front of Yoan Moncada and Anthony Rendon… For what it’s worth, I personally don’t think he’ll actually bat 7th.
For whatever reason, O’Hoppe was horrid vs LHP last year and had a .592 OPS. But I didn’t see anything in his MiLB career that suggested he was a platoon risk. It may be the outlier in his career, and this year, he could erase those doubts. But I’m not sure he gets the chance to. d’Arnaud had a .922 OPS vs. LHP last season, so we could be looking at a platoon for O’Hoppe.
I think if the Angels do platoon O’Hoppe, it will be a huge mistake, and could hinder the long term development of the O’Hoppe, who is the franchise backstop for them. But when was the last time the Angels made a wise baseball decision?
If O’Hoppe is platooned, he still could be elite vs RHP. So, if you play in a daily lineup league, he could be great. But he’s being drafted as a guy who will play every day and produce for you! I’ll take Sean Murphy, who will be 100 picks later.
Paul Goldschmidt, NYY
166 FantasyPro’s ADP, 15th 1B. My 23rd 1B.
2024: .245 AVG, 22 HR, 70 R, 65 RBI, 11 SB
I don’t really have a ton to write here. I don’t think that this is a hot take by any means. Goldy was a favorite of mine for such a long time in fantasy, but not in the last few years, and definitely not this year.
Goldy has been on a gradual decline for 2 years now. Please don’t yell at me for using non-advanced stats that are from the dark ages, but in 2023, he had a .268 AVG with 25 HR, and in 2024, he hit .245 with 22 HR. I know his draft price isn’t projecting him to hit .290 and 35 HRs again, but I wouldn’t be so sure that he will hit .250 and 20 HRs. He is 37 years old. The guy they just moved on from, in Anthony Rizzo, is 35! I don’t expect the bottom to completely fall out on Goldy, but it is a possibility, and I am staying away. Spencer Horwitz will be better, and you can get him 130 picks later!
Brice Turang, MIL
131 FantasyPro’s ADP, 7th 2B. My 18th 2B.
2024: .254 AVG, 7 HR, 72 R, 57 RBI, 50 SB
This is the easiest one for me. Turang came on the scene as a surprise to me last year. I waited for the bottom to fall out, and it didn’t… Until after the All-Star break. Post ASB, he had a .564 OPS.
Yes he is fast. Yes he steals bags. But he can’t steal from the bench! And I think that is a legitimate possibility for Turang if he starts 2025 out like he ended 2024.
He is being drafted around, and ahead of SO many good players, it blows my mind. Steals are also not as important as they used to be in fantasy. Please don’t draft Turang unless you get an insane discount. And even then, I don’t know if I’d draft him.
If you really need a steals guy for 2B, Zack Gelof will be available 100 picks later, and could also hit 20 HR’s!
Willy Adames, SFG
68 FantasyPro’s ADP, 8th SS. My 14th SS
2024: .251 AVG, 32 HR, 93 R, 112, RBI, 21 SB
This is another that was pretty easy for me.
Adames was playing for a contract last year. I am a believer in the “contract year” narrative. So the biggest thing there, is the steals. He had 21 steals last year. He has never stolen more than 8 in his career. He is 50th percentile in sprint speed. Do not expect many steals if you draft him.
He is also going from the 6th best park for right handed power, to the 28th… (baseballsavant park factors). So despite savant saying there would be no change in HR’s for Adames, I do not expect a 30 HR season in 2025.
I apologize that this blurb is short, but I also wrote about him in my “unpopular takes” piece as well. I think this is short, and to the point however.
Get Bo Bichette 30 picks later, and even later than that, Trevor Story or Dansby Swanson 100+ picks later.
Pete Crow-Armstrong, CHC
164 FantasyPro’s ADP, 40th OF. My 46th OF.
To be transparent, I am not in love with labeling PCA a bust. I only have him six spots below his ADP. When I drew him up as a bust, it was from the NFC ADP, which was 135. 164 and later is something I could (potentially) entertain.
PCA’s defense alone will keep him in the Cubs lineup, so I don’t worry about him getting benched, but there are serious concerns about his bat.
I know that Pete can steal a bag better than 99% of the league, but you have to get on base to get those steals. And as I said for Turang, steals are not as crucial for fantasy as they once were. It isn’t worth tanking your average for.
If you are looking for a steals specialist, go draft Jake McCarthy 100 picks later or Victor Scott II 200+ picks later…
Gerrit Cole, NYY
43 FantasyPro’s ADP, 10th SP. My 28th SP.
2024: 95 IP, 8 W, 99 K, 3,41 ERA, 1.12 WHIP
In my “Unpopular Takes” piece a few weeks ago, I wrote that Cole would be “just a guy.” So, I obviously disagree with his high ADP. I think Cole is still a good pitcher, but he is being drafted to be an ace. And I think if you draft him this early to be that, it will be a mistake. Especially ahead of some really remarkable players that are being drafted after him.
Regarding his performance last year, I do think he overachieved. PitcherList agrees as well, with their 3.91 xERA on him. I’m not saying that Cole will have a 4.00 ERA. But with him not throwing his Slider as much (15%), I think his strikeouts will be underwhelming, and he will be more hittable than we are used to seeing. If he is more hittable, he doesn’t have the best infield defense behind him, either. I also think that there is a potentially unsolved injury risk with his elbow from last season. Hopefully, I am wrong there, but he has that looming on top of my performance concerns.
I think Cole is a great enough pitcher to have a respectable “post-ace” career and be a fine pitcher. But as of right now, all of the following metrics are middling: average EV, Chase %, Whiff %, HH%, GB%. His extension has always been middling, so I excluded that. The most significant difference from 2023 was his Chase %. 2023 was 29.9, and 2024 was 27.3. His FB velo also dropped from 96.7 to 95.9.
I think there are a lot of pitchers being drafted after Cole that will outperform him.
Roki Sasaki, LAD
100 FantasyPro’s ADP, 29th SP. My 37th SP.
2024 NBP: 111.0 IP, 129 K, 2.35 ERA, 1.03 WHIP
My concern with Sasaki, is that the Dodgers’ intention with him is to develop him long term. That is why the 23-year-old signed there (supposedly). So they don’t need to push him this year. So there will likely be a cap on his innings since 129.1 is the most he has thrown in a professional season, and it’s not like the Dodgers actually NEED him to win the NL West. The Dodgers will also be running a 6-man rotation this season. So when Roki is starting, he won’t get any two start weeks.
There were also elbow concerns in Japan last year. He lost a few MPH on his fastball, and it got hit pretty hard.
So, you combine the following concerns:
Innings, Elbow, Bad fastball?
I don’t think that is a recipe to encourage me to draft him around the 100th pick.
For my dynasty folks, please don’t misconstrue this. I like Sasaki. He might have the best Splitter in the world. But for the 2025 leagues, his ADP is too high. I would happily take him in the long term, though.
Emmanuel Clase, CLE
41 FantasyPro’s ADP, 1st RP. My 3rd RP.
2024: 74.1 IP, 4 W, 47 S, 66 K, 0.64 ERA, 0.66 WHIP
Okay. I guess I’ll be the clown to say this.
Clase had 50 Save opportunities last season. That is 30% of Cleveland’s games! And he converted 47 of them. So why am I labeling him as a bust?
He is being drafted too high. I don’t think he will get close to 47 Saves in 2025, and he will likely get you only 60s. I think Josh Hader and Devin Williams will outperform him in most categories. I think Edwin Diaz could as well.
Clase was a Cy Young candidate last year. He had a .61 ERA. I recognize how insane I seem by putting him in this piece. But I stand by it. I’m not going to write much about his 9.00 ERA in the playoffs this Fall, but that was slightly concerning.
Clase will still probably be a top 5 closer this year. But I recommend waiting another round or two and drafting one of Josh Hader, Devin Williams, or Edwin Diaz to be your RP1. Draft an elite bat or ace for your staff in the round that Clase will be drafted. If he falls, then take him!
Please don’t take this as a “Emmanuel Clase will be terrible in 2025.” I don’t think that. You can say that I think he is overvalued, and due for regression.
Conclusion, with “Honorable” Mentions
You may have noticed that I left out a third baseman here. I went back and forth, but I didn’t want to have a name as a bust just for the sake of it. But the two guys who I think have bust potential are the two guys with their futures looming — Alex Bregman and Nolan Arenado.
Bregman has been scratched out. Fenway is one of the destinations where I believe he can succeed. He is 8th in my 3B rankings.
The fantasy outlook of those two cling desperately on the ballpark and lineup that they get traded/signed too. They both have middling power. Arenado has already shown signs of decline, and has had back issues for a couple years now.
So Bregman and Arenado are my honorable mentions, as well as Tyler Stephenson, Catcher for the Reds. The Reds trading for Jose Trevino kind of grossed me out a bit for Stephenson’s value. Last year, he had some DH at-bats mixed in, but I don’t see that being the case with all of the mouths to feed in Cincy. I think Stephenson could sit more than you’d desire from the 11th-ranked catcher.
Last HM: The Rays pitching staff. I wrote about this in Unpopular Takes for 2025, that I now have mentioned three times. Check it out.
Conclusion, for real this time.
Thanks for reading, and I apologize if I hurt any feelings. I don’t root for any player to fail (maybe a few in my life), so this wasn’t the most fun I’ve had writing a piece. My intention here is just to state my opinion on guys to avoid in your drafts.
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I think the Clase discussion is fair: he'll still be one of the best closers, but save opportunities are not in his control. His 0.61 ERA is not replicable, and while he has led the league in saves for three years, it's also notable that he led the league in BLOWN saves in 2023.