Exposing Potential Frauds Post MLB All Star Break
"Who's Hot, Who's Not"
Every season a few mediocre MLB teams surge into the all-star break well above preseason expectations before eventually fading in the second half. Whether these teams get hit with injuries or key players fall into ill-timed slumps, it’s very difficult for frauds to survive the entire 162-game season in the big leagues.
Miami Marlins
The Marlins have been on fire in 2023 starting the season 51-38. Despite struggles from star pitcher Sandy Alcantara, the Marlins have had breakout players on both sides of the ball. Pitchers Jesus Luzardo, Braxton Garrett, and Eury Perez have all been lethal on the mound this year while Luis Arraez is batting nearly .400 and Joger Soler has hit already hit over 20 HRs. Despite this, Miami is still below league average in OPS+ and have an average at best bullpen. Additionally, the Marlins have an Expected Win-Loss record of 44-45 which ranks them in the bottom half of the MLB. They have also been gifted the 5th easiest strength of schedule thus far which helps explain their inflated record. It does not help the marlins that they play in one of the tougher divisions in the league. The division leading Braves will almost certainly take home the NL East title and the Phillies and Mets have enough talent to contend for the rest of the season. While it is possible that the Marlins are real playoff threats, do not be shocked if they fall in the second half.
Cincinnati Reds
While it is true that the Reds are one of baseball’s most surprising and electric teams this year, it is statistically unlikely that Cincy will continue their winning ways. In a similar vein to the Marlins, the Reds have an Expected Win-Loss record of 43-45 despite their NL Central-best 49-39 record. Additionally, their strength of schedule is tied for 5th easiest in the whole league. The Reds are a good, young team, but they aren’t built to last. They have been dealing with injuries in their rotation for the entirety of the season and it is more likely than not that a few of their star rookies will begin to fade. Statistically, the Reds rank below the league average in both OPS+ and ERA+ and only hold a 37.7% chance of making the playoffs (According to Baseball Reference). As much as I will be rooting for the Reds to continue winning ball games, I do believe they will struggle post-All-Star Break.