Eric Lauer’s 92 MPH Fastball Is Quietly Dominating

A Blog By Robbie

From Rock Bottom to Redemption

Just a year ago, Eric Lauer was hanging on by a thread in Triple-A Indianapolis, fighting to keep his career alive after a mild start in the Pirates organization. His 5.52 ERA over 44 innings led to an opt out, after being passed over for a major league call-up. Lauer, deservingly so at the time, never got picked up, so he traveled to the other side of the world and joined the Kia Tigers in the KBO league, hoping to regain that spark. Over 11 starts and 60 innings, Lauer sported a 3.90 ERA, helping the Tigers secure the 2024 Korean Series.

Fast forward to 2025, and you’ll find him keeping pace with Garret Crochet in ERA. He’s quietly dominating for the Toronto Blue Jays and he has essentially pitched himself into the fifth spot. Fresh off of a dominant start with eight strikeouts and one earned run versus the Diamondbacks, his ERA is down to 2.29.

Kent State to the KBO

The 30-year-old lefty from Elyria, Ohio threw for the Kent State Golden Flashes from 2014 to 2016 before being selected by the San Diego Padres 25th overall. At Kent State, Eric collected an impressive list of awards, including MAC Pitcher of the Year. However, his most notable achievement came in 2016, when he was named Collegiate Baseball’s National Player of the Year. This award came after an incredible year where he went 10-2 with a 0.69 ERA while giving up only four home runs in 104 innings pitched. Lauer made his MLB debut with the Padres on April 24, 2018, after a rapid ascent through the minors. In his rookie season, he pitched 112 innings with a 6-7 record and a 4.34 ERA. In San Diego, he continued to develop (4.45 ERA in 2019), but was eventually traded to the Brewers later in the year. That brings us to his stint with Triple-A Indianapolis after signing a minor-league deal with the Pirates, which marked a turning point, eventually leading to the unexpected move to the KBO. In Korea, he looked to reignite his career, and it paid off. His performance earned him a deal with the Blue Jays ahead of this year’s Spring Training.

Here’s How He Does It

The way Eric Lauer gets it done is simply intriguing to watch. He doesn’t get much chase, he doesn’t limit hard contact, his breaking balls don’t have any crazy movement, he doesn’t keep the ball on the ground all that often, and his fastball averages 92 mph. So how is he able to overwhelm hitters? The answer lies in his ability to locate when he wants to, and that 92 mph fastball seems to overpower hitters night in and night out. In fact, that four seamer is actually the most effective pitch on the entire Jays roster thus far, with a run value/100 of 3.1.

His four seamer happens to be the second best four seamer in the league, only behind Hunter Brown (run value/100 of 3.5) as well as a top 15 pitch overall. Let me say it again, in case you missed it. The second best four seamer in the MLB averages 92 mph. Lauer loves throwing the fastball up in the zone, and he’s barely allowed any damage to it all year. The high “heat” often leads to soft pop flies. At a 22.3 degree launch angle, his fastball induces hard contact, but it’s often hit to the biggest parts of the park, which is how the damage is limited. Although his four seamer is his bread and butter, he also throws a cutter (18% usage), curveball (14% usage), slider (12% usage), and a changeup (10% usage). Not only does he have an elite fastball and solid accompaniments, but he’s aggressive, throwing 54.1% of pitches in the zone.

Scout the Statline (StS) projects some regression, likely due to the fact that the more he’s out there, the more batters will adjust. StS projects Lauer to throw 126 innings this year with 117 strikeouts and a 7.9 K/9. The current season projections from StS highlights Lauer’s WHIP to remain pretty similar by the time the end of the year is wrapped up (1.19). They project a 21.1% strikeout rate, along with an 8.4% walk rate, equating to a 12.7% K%-BB%.

Filling the Void

As Lauer continues to perform at this rate, his role within the Blue Jays' rotation is pretty solidified. As it currently stands, the first three rotation slots are pencilled in with Kevin Guasman, Jose Berrios and Chris Bassit. The Jays have been struggling to find that fifth man though. Bowden Francis has had a tough go as of late, and he’s just been placed on the injured list. Max Scherzer has also been on the injured list (since March 30), although he’s gearing up for his return. Although Lauer’s Blue Jays sample size is still small, he’s showing that he’s got potential to fill up that last spot.