Early MLB Overreactions
Here's what I've noticed roughly 20 games into the marathon we call the MLB regular season.
The 2024 baseball season is in full swing. While April only makes up for about 15% of the Major League Baseball year, it’s important to take a step back and gaze at what’s happened so far.
This is going to be all over the place. It’s too premature to start throwing around MVP, Cy Young, and even All-Star predictions. Instead, I will free-ball this thing to add to the chaos of a 162-game ride.
No, I’m not going to take a hack at the White Sox. It’s not funny anymore, just plain sad.
The Twins are Hurt
Minnesota won the AL Central by a comfortable nine-game margin last season. However, like any wise man said, the past is in the past. This season, the Twins have gotten off on the wrong foot, going 7-13 over their first 20 contests — including being 3-7 over their last ten.
A depleted lineup thanks to some untimely injuries will do this. Carlos Correa came out of the gates strong posting a 159 OPS+ over his first 36 at-bats. Unfortunately, he, along with proven veterans Max Kepler and Royce Lewis have found themselves on the 10-day IL.
As for their pitching staff, things are even worse. Anthony DeSclafani wound up on the 60-day around Opening Day, while the 15-day IL consists of important bullpen pieces Jhoan Duran, Justin Topa, and Daniel Duarte.
Things are still early, but this club needs to get healthy if they want a fair chance to right the ship.
The Guardians are For Real
Sticking in the AL Central, Cleveland has emerged as the early favorite. Boasting a strong record of 16-6, Rookie skipper Stephen Vogt has his boys swinging lumber with authority.
Josh Naylor leads things offensively, as he currently has 6 homers, hitting .325 with an impressive 187 wRC+. Leadoff weapon Steven Kwan is at the top of the club’s fWAR, already amazing at 1.1, the Oregon State product is slashing .358/.378/.474.
David Fry, Andres Gimenez, and Estevan Florial all have a wRC+ north of 120, and look like they could be legitimate bats this season.
The club is fifth in RBI at 112, beating star-studded lineups like the Phillies and Rangers. The scariest part? The Guards offense is doing this without crazy contributions from Jose Ramirez. The All-Star is posting just an 84 wRC+ and .253 OBP%.
No doubt Cleveland has emerged as the frontrunner for the AL Central.
The Red Sox… Can Pitch?
What was once known as an organization that has trouble developing arms, Boston is flipping the script. Newly minted pitching coach and 2009 AL Rookie of the Year Andrew Bailey has done a tremendous job.
The Red Sox are currently second in MLB in pitcher fWAR at 3.9, and their staff is striking out batters at a 24.6% rate (6th in MLB). With the emergence of Kutter Crawford as a front-line starter, Boston has the lowest team ERA in the show at just 2.57 runs per game.
Forget the injuries of Nick Pivetta and Lucas Giolito — Brayan Bello, Kutter Crawford, and Tanner Houck are a three-headed monster.
Bailey seems to have figured things out in the bullpen too. New GM Craig Breslow traded for Justin Slaten after the Rule-5 draft and seems to have found another setup man. Slaten posts a 0.63 ERA over 14.1 innings of work and is in the top 94th percentile of chase rates via Baseball Savant.
If only the Red Sox offense could stay healthy.