Do MLB #1 Prospects Pan Out?
A Blog By Dean
I woke up this morning at 5 a.m. to prepare for the MLB games in Tokyo. I made a cup of tea and laid in a recliner. I wanted to detach and watch the game rather than worry about posting every moment Shohei Ohtani came to bat.
Then they showed Roki Sasaki, and it reminded me that he is the #1 overall prospect in MLB this year. Now, I believe he shouldn’t really count and it should be Roman Anthony, but that is a different subject.
If you read my MLB’s #1 Overall Picks: HOF? Or Bust? Blog (most read blog in website history, no big deal,) you would know that A LOT of those players were duds.
But what about #1 overall prospects?
Well, let’s take a look.
I am gonna lay out their stats and simply label them a HIT or a BUST.
2025: Roki Sasaki
Signed by: Los Angeles Dodgers
Stats: None…. yet
Awards: He is the favorite for Rookie of the Year.
Hit or Bust: Obviously, we have no idea.
2024: Jackson Holliday
Drafted by: Baltimore Orioles
Stats: .189 AVG, 5 HR, 23 RBI, .565 OPS, 66 OPS+
Awards: Nada
Hit or Bust: If you have been following Jackson Holliday during the off-season, you would have noticed that he has put on some muscle. He has looked great at the plate so far in Spring Training. However, don’t forget the last two Spring Trainings….. He also looked great.
2023: Gunnar Henderson
Drafted by: Baltimore Orioles
Stats: .268 AVG, 69 HR, 192 RBI, .850 OPS, 16.1 bWAR
Awards: 2023 AL Rookie of the Year
Hit Or Bust?: HIT! MLB did not rank Gunnar in the Top 5 players. Instead, they had Corey Seager, which makes no sense. Gunnar has shown to be the best of the Orioles young brass.
2022: Bobby Witt Jr.
Drafted by: Kansas City Royals
Stats: .288 AVG, 82 HR, 285 RBI, 110 SB, 14.6 bWAR
Awards: 1x All-Star, 1x Gold Glove, 1x Silver Slugger
Hit Or Bust?: HIT! I’ll go to the grave thinking that Bobby Witt Jr should have won MVP over Aaron Judge. The Royals would have been nothing without him. I can not wait to watch Jac Caglianone and Bobby rake for the next decade.
2021 & 2020: Wander Franco
Drafted by: Tampa Bay Rays
Stats: .282 AVG, 30 HR, 130 RBI
Awards: 1x All-Star
Hit or Criminal?: Criminal
2019: Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Drafted by: Toronto Blue Jays
Stats: .288 AVG, 160 HR, 507 RBI, .863 OPS, 21.3 bWAR
Awards: 4x All-Star, 2x Silver Slugger, 1x Gold Glove
Hit Or Bust?: Hit. Amongst this list, I think you could make an argument that Guerrero is the most underrated player here.
2018: Shohei Ohtani
Signed by: Los Angeles Angels
Stats: .282 AVG. 225 HR, 567 RBI, .945 OPS, 43.8 bWAR
38-19, 3.01 ERA, 608 Ks, 142 ERA+
Awards: 3x MVP, ROY, 3x Silver Slugger, 4x All-Star
Hit Or Bust?: HIT. No analysis needed here….
2017: Andrew Benintendi
Drafted by: Boston Red Sox
Stats: .270 AVG, 98 HR, 493 RBI, .756 OPS, 15.5 bWAR
Awards: 1x Gold Glove Award, 2018 World Series Champion, 1x All-Star
Hit Or Bust?: Hot. That was not a misspelling; Benintendi has one of the greatest sets of hair I have ever seen. I will always have a soft spot for him.
2016: Corey Seager
Drafted by: Los Angeles Dodgers
Stats: .290 AVG, 200 HR, 617 RBI, .872 OPS, 36.8 bWAR
Awards: 2x World Series MVP (2020, 2023), 4x All-Star, 3x Silver Slugger
Hit Or Bust?: Hit. I don’t view him as a Top 5 player like MLB’s website does, but he is still a hit.
2015 & 2014: Byron Buxton
Drafted by: Minnesota Twins
Stats: .244 AVG, 133 HR, 353 RBI, .780 OPS, 24.9 bWAR
Awards: 1x Gold Glove Award, 1x All-Star
Hit Or Bust?:BUST… This is going to upset Will from Overdue Sports, but it is the truth. He is not a Jurickson Profar or Matt Moore, but when you compare him to the rest of this list, he is a bust. Guy just can’t stay healthy.
2013: Jurickson Profar
Drafted by: Texas Rangers
Stats: ..245 AVG, 111 HR, 444 RBI, .726 OPS, 8.3 bWAR
Awards: 1x All-Star, 1x Silver Slugger
Hit Or Bust?: BUST, although he had a solid year in 2024 which got him a $42 million contract. Which, to me, is nuts. He was around for over a decade and had done very little in the league. He has one good season, and all of a sudden the Braves throw $15 million a year at him. Happy for him though.
2012: Matt Moore
Drafted by: Tampa Bay Rays
Stats: 71-66 W-L, 4.39 ERA, 894 SO, 94 ERA+
Awards: 1x All-Star
Hit Or Bust?: THE Bust!
2011: Mike Trout
Drafted by: Los Angeles Angels
Stats: .299 AVG, 378 HR, 954 RBI, 212 SB, .991 OPS, 86.0 bWAR
Awards: 3x AL MVP, 11x All-Star, 9x Silver Slugger
Hit Or Bust?: HIT! I still say Mike Trout is the best player on this list. Others will side with Shohei. I am holding out for one more great Mike Trout season.
That is all! I wanted to get out another non Red Sox blog before my reviews start after each series. I also need to keep up with my year goal of 170 blogs.
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