Detroit Tigers Starting Rotation Stardom
Starting Rotation Recap
May 10 — The Detroit Tigers are tied for the best record in the sport (26-13) and the best run differential (+84). A key contributor to their early season success is their strong starting rotation. The Tigers rotation currently ranks 4th in team ERA (3.20), 5th in SO (216), 5th in WHIP (1.16), and 8th in batting average against (.227). A top rotation in baseball is a stabilizer for a team to stay competitive in games regardless of what the offense is doing. I’m going to break down each member of the rotation and what makes them excel.
Tarik Skubal
Season stats: 47.2 IP, 2.08 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, .210 AVG, 60 SO.
Tarik Skubal is the centerpiece of this rotation. As he goes, the rest of the group goes. The reigning Cy Young winner is continuing his success early on this season. Skubal is an efficient and effective arm and attacks the zone with authority. Daring hitters to combat his arsenal.
According to BaseballSavant, he ranks in the 91st percentile or better in several key metrics: Avg. Exit Velo, Whiff%, K%, BB%, Hard-Hit%. Skubal generates a lot of swing and miss, doesn’t miss the zone, and the limited contact he does allow does not get barreled up very often, limiting any sort of damage. Mainly a four pitch mix (changeup, four seam, sinker, slider) with a sprinkling of the curve. The change, four seam, and sinker all generate greater than a 25% Whiff%, with the changeup at a massive 48% rate. Skubal’s overall K% is 5th in baseball, while his whiff % is 2nd. He will finish the season at the top of the leaderboards in overall strikeouts, along with ERA and WHIP; making him a finalist for back to back Cy Young awards.
Jack Flaherty
Season stats: 38.0 IP, 3.79 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, .229 AVG, 46 SO. (written prior to his 5/10 start)
I wrote a preseason piece on Jack Flaherty returning to the Tigers after a strong first half with Detroit in 2024. I loved the deal and have been very encouraged with the continued signs of improvement for him thus far in 2025. Flaherty’s underlying metrics are mostly in line with last season. A .252 XBA, .420 XSLG, and .318 xwOBA are all right around league average, but a 29.1 K% and 30.7 Whiff% both put him in the 80th percentile, meaning he’s missing bats at a great rate.
Flaherty’s main struggles have come once he reaches the 6th inning. He’s allowed 8 ER in 34.2 IP across innings 1-5 so far this season, compared to 8 ER in 3.1 IP in the 6th inning alone. This is pretty common early on in the season as a pitcher builds up endurance to go deeper into games. I’m not overly concerned by it and think once Flaherty starts to pitch effectively through the 6th inning, we’ll see him return to his 2024 self. Athletes are intense competitors and pitchers like to push each other to succeed, so I know Flaherty will want to improve for his fellow rotation mates especially as he tries to keep pace with Skubal.
Reese Olson
Season stats: 38.2 IP, 3.03 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, .214 AVG, 40 SO.
Reese Olson has been on a heater lately. The 25 year old has 4 straight starts with 7+ SO. He has also given up 0 ER in 4 of his last 5 starts. The underlying metrics look mostly the same to last season, so what’s the reason for the mini-breakout? He’s throwing his sinker and changeup more and fastball less (24% to 13% of the time). The sinker is generating less whiffs (7.6% to 2.7%), so never really a bat misser. However, the changeup whiff% is up from 43% to 54% and the fastball is also up from 10% to 21%. Clearly a conscious pitch mix change that has led to more effective results so far.
The walk % (10.6) and hard-hit % (47.5) are both in the lower 30th percentile, a bit concerning. If he can nibble around the zone a bit more and limit the hard contact, then we’re looking at a legitimate breakout candidate. I trust the Tigers pitching coaches know the areas to work on and I think Olson can be a really strong No. 3 arm in this rotation moving forward.
Casey Mize
Season stats: 42.2 IP, 2.53 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, .217 AVG, 35 SO. (written prior to IL designation)
The former #1 overall draft pick seems to finally be putting it altogether. Mize racked up his 6th win of the year vs COL the other day, tying him for the league lead. A .208 xBA, .372 xSLG, and .269 xwOBA are all significantly better than league average. His ERA and WHIP are top 20 in the league among qualified starting pitchers. A great sign for Tigers fans who have been invested in Mize since he was drafted in 2018.
His biggest improvements from last season are in hard-hit%, whiff%, and first pitch strike%. Mize is attacking hitters in the zone early, getting ahead in the count more often, generating more swing and miss, and limiting the hard contact on balls put in play. A great recipe for success that I believe continues throughout the rest of the season. Another strong arm for the Tigers to rely on and keep the team in the game, regardless of how the offense is doing that night.
Jackson Jobe
Season stats: 27.2 IP, 4.88 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, .250 AVG, 20 SO.
Jobe, the Tigers #1 overall prospect coming into the season, has struggled a bit to start the season. He’s actually held his own outside of his last start (2.70 ERA in 20 IP in April) which occurred in Coors Field, an environment that troubles several pitchers. However, there are some encouraging signs for the 22 year old. All five of the pitches that he throws have a positive Stuff+ grade, anywhere from 103-115. Meaning each pitch type ranks 3-15% better than the league average. The movement he generates on all his pitches is nasty, making him an exciting watch every time he goes out.
Jobe’s struggling to generate whiffs and strikeouts, while also owning a high walk rate. All three metrics rank in the bottom 20th percentile. Pitch selection and command are areas of improvement for the youngster. As stated, the pitches themselves are strong but knowing when to throw each pitch type and for strikes is crucial for success. This is something that he’ll get better with more reps and experience on the mound. The talent is there, it just needs some fine tuning. Jobe has the potential to be the ace of this rotation in a few seasons. For now, I’m more than happy with him holding down the 5th spot in the rotation and learning from the minds of Skubal and pitching coach Chris Fetter.
Summary
The Detroit Tigers starting rotation is a top 5-10 unit in the MLB so far and I have confidence they will only get better moving forward. With Skubal, the reigning Cy Young winner as our ace; Flaherty improving on his bounce back year in 2024; Olson on the cusp of a breakout season; Mize showing us why he was the former #1 pick in the draft, and the former top prospect in Jobe learning as he goes; the sky is the limit for this team. I look forward to seeing how they line up in a best of 7 postseason series against some of the sport’s best lineups. Buckle up Detroit, we’re in for a fun season.