Dean's MLB Award Predictions
Dean's MLB Award Predictions
I Am Ready For The Heat
Here at The Skippers View, we like to make predictions for awards and events. So far, I am the only person who can get any predictions correct. That came with my Teoscar Hernandez choice for the Home Run Derby. So, you have to agree with my picks here.
“Technically,” we are over the halfway mark, but everyone knows that the All-Star Game is the true half-point of the season. I was going to do my “First Half Award Winners,” but honestly, some of them are pretty obvious, so that did not seem as fun. I instead pivoted to my predictions for the end-of-year awards.
To be honest, I am not going to spend any time trying to decipher the Gold Glove Award Winners. There I said it: I don’t understand defensive analytics. SUE ME.
American League
MVP- Gunnar Henderson
Current stats: 6.3 bWAR/ .286 AVG/ 28 HR/ 63 RBI/ 174 OPS+
A lot of people will say that I don’t like Judge because I am a Red Sox fan. There is no truth to that. Again, I believe that this is the Most Valuable Player Award, and when I look at who is more valuable to their team right now, it is Henderson. That is not a dig on the Orioles, but Judge has Soto, who currently ranks 5th in WAR. Meanwhile, the Orioles next best player is Rutschman, with a 3.2 WAR. The Orioles are higher as a team, with 20.7 WAR, compared to the Yankees, which is 17.0. Henderson is the best player on the best team in the American League. He gets my vote.
Cy Young- Tarik Skubal
Current Stats: 4.5 bWAR/ 2.41 ERA/ 10-3/ 140 SO/ 173 ERA+/ 0.88 WHIP/ .190 AVG
I found this one more challenging to predict than the MVP. Why? Because two of the top five pitchers in the MLB are on the Chicago White Sox. Garret Crochet and Erick Fedde deserve to be in the Cy Young based on their performance this year. However, they are on the worst team in the league right now. Now, if they end up getting traded, it could throw my prediction into a loop, but I am going with Skubal for now. My bold prediction choice would be Logan Gilbert.
Hank Aaron Award- Aaron Judge
Current Stats: bWAR 6.4/ .306 AVG/ 34 HR/ 85 RBI/ 207 OPS+
Look, he’s out of this world, and I know I am going to catch some heat for not having him in the MVP slot. I think Henderson is the complete package right now, whereas Judge is the best hitter. The Hank Aaron Award was created for this reason. Sound off on me in the comments.
Rookie Of The Year- Ceddanne Rafaela
This might seem like a bias pick, but if you have watched Rafaela this year you would know why I chose him. Here is Rafaela against the ROY Favorite, Wyatt Langford.
Editors Note: I am not going to dive deep into the Silver Slugger Awards for every position. These are my choices; I stand by them.
Silver Slugger DH- Yordan Alvarez
Current stats: 2.5 bWAR/ .296 AVG/ 19 HR/ 52 RBI/ 158 OPS+
Silver Slugger C- Logan O’Hoppe
Current Stats: 2.2 bWAR/ .276 AVG/ 14 HR/ 42 RBI/ 121 OPS+
Silver Slugger 1B- Vladimir Guerrero Jr
Current Stats: 2.1 bWAR/ .288 AVG/ 14 HR/ 55 RBI/ 130 OPS+
Silver Slugger 2B- Jose Altuve
Current stats: 2.9 bWAR/ .306 AVG/ 14 HR/ 44 RBI/ 131 OPS+
Silver Slugger 3B- Rafael Devers
Current stats: 3.3 bWAR/ 23 HR/ .295 AVG/ 61 RBI/ 166 OPS+
I am sorry to all the Jose Ramirez fans. It isn’t even close.
Silver Slugger SS- Gunnar Henderson
Current stats: 6.3 bWAR/ .286 AVG/ 28 HR/ 63 RBI/ 174 OPS+
Silver Slugger OF- Judge, Soto, Duran
Judge- 6.4 bWAR/ .306 AVG/ 34 HR/ 85 RBI/ 207 OPS+
Soto- 5.0 bWAR/ .295 AVG/ 23 HR/ 66 RBI/ 175 OPS+
Duran- Biased pick. Sue me.
National League
MVP- Bryce Harper
Current Stats: 3.8 WAR/ .301 AVG/ 21 HR/ 61 RBI/ OPS+ 174
He is the best player on the best team in baseball. He might be a little behind in statistics at the moment, but let’s not forget the second half he had in 2021. He wasn’t even voted to the All-Star team that year, but he went on to win MVP. He is my choice over Ohtani.
Cy Young- Paul Skenes
Current Stats: 3.1 bWAR/ 13-3/ 2.70 ERA/ 140 SO/ 0.95 WHIP/ 154 ERA+
I actually wrote a paragraph, which I am going to leave below, about Chris Sale deserving of the Cy Young Award. Then I saw Paul Skenes bWAR, and sorry, Sale, but move aside. Skenes should get Cy Young. I have been tweeting about this for two months. He trails only Reynaldo Lopez and Hunter Greene in WAR this season in about half the innings. Sorry, but Reynaldo is not winning this award unless he keeps that sub-2 ERA. Greene is turning into the Ace he was always supposed to be, but give him another year or two. It is Skenes time.
A few months ago, I started a blog about the player with the best chance to make the HOF on each team in MLB. I chose Chris Sale, and this was before the Ronald Acuna Jr injury. Sale, to me, will set the new standard for what a Hall of Fame pitcher looks like in terms of statistics. However, he did not receive a Cy Young Award after going to the top five in voting from 2013 to 2018. He should get that this year.
Rookie Of The Year- Paul Skenes
Current Stats: 3.2 bWAR/ 1.90 ERA/ .92 WHIP/ 89 SO/ 216 ERA+
Look above.
Hank Aaron Award- Shohei Ohtani
Current Stats: 5.4 bWAR/ .316 AVG/ 29 HR/ 69 RBI/ 23 SB/ 189 OPS+
The same argument I made for Judge above applies to Ohtani here. Look, I worry about his health. We have had two seasons where he didn’t end up falling apart. Those were 2021 and 2022. Last year, his first half was just so insane that it propelled him to the MVP. I will probably eat my words on this pick, but ti’s life.
Silver Slugger DH- Shohei Ohtani
Current Stats: 5.4 bWAR/ .316 AVG/ 29 HR/ 69 RBI/ 23 SB/ 189 OPS+
Silver Slugger C- Will Smith
Current Stats: 3.1 bWAR/ .272 BA/ 15 HR/ 55 RBI/ 135 OPS+
Silver Slugger 1B- Bryce Harper
Current Stats: 3.8 WAR/ .301 AVG/ 21 HR/ 61 RBI/ OPS+ 174
Silver Slugger 2B- Ketel Marte
Current Stats: 4.9 WAR/ .292 AVG/ 19 HR/ 57 RBI/ 147 OPS+
Silver Slugger 3B- Alec Bohm
Current Stats: 2.5 WAR/ .295 AVG/ 11 HR/ 70 RBI/ 132 OPS+
Silver Slugger SS- CJ Abrams
Current Stats: 3.3 bWAR/ .268 AVG/ 15 HR/ 48 RBI/ 137 OPS+
Silver Slugger OF-Nimmo, Yelich, Reynolds
Nimmo- 2.6 bWAR/ .248 AVG/ 16 HR/ 63 RBI/ 134 OPS+
Yelich- 2.5 bWAR/ .326 AVG/ 11 HR/ 41 RBI/ 159 OPS+
Reynolds- 2.9 bWAR/ .284 AVG/ 18 HR/ 61 RBI/ 134 OPS+
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