Dean's Final MLB Award Predictions

Please Don't Look At My Mid-Season Predictions

In July, I gave my mid-season MLB Award predictions. I will link it below so you can see how off I was. A lesser man (Brett) would delete that blog and pretend it never happened. Not me; I want everyone to see the mistakes I’ve made.

As we approach the final few games of the 2024 season, I decided to give my final award predictions. I will only cover the major awards, including MVP, Cy Young, and Rookie of the Year. My Silver Slugger winners from my last blog aren’t terrible! Although, injuries have knocked some out at this point.

Alright, here we go.

American League

MVP- Bobby Witt Jr

I will stand by the below post to my death. That is all.

Cy Young- Emmanuel Clase

• Look, over the last 30 years, low WAR pitchers have won the award before. But for the most part, those guys were horses and pitched a lot of innings.

  • 1993- Jack McDowell(4.4 bWAR, 256 IP), Greg Maddux(5.8 bWAR, 209 IP)

  • 2001- Roger Clemens (5.7 bWAR, 220 IP)

  • 2004- Roger Clemens (5.4 bWAR, 214 IP)

  • 2005- Bartolo Colon (4.0 bWAR, 222 IP), Chris Carpenter (5.8 bWAR, 214 IP)

  • 2012- RA Dickey ( 5.7 bWAR, 233 IP)

  • 2016- Rick Porcello ( 4.7 bWAR, 223 IP)

• Since 2018, we have begun to see pitchers who don’t rack up a crazy amount of innings win the award.

  • 2018- Blake Snell (

  • 2021- Corbin Burnes (5.3 bWAR, 167 IP)

  • 2022- Justin Verlander (5.6 bWAR, 175 IP)

  • 2023- Blake Snell ( 6.2 bWAR, 180 IP)

• What this tells me, is voters have started to trend towards players who show dominance, and no longer care about the 200 IP mark that was previously a pre-requisite of winning the award. This can be attributed to injuries, load management, and pussification.

• For me, this should open the doors for relief pitchers to have a better chance at winning the Cy Young Award. While Skubal has been great, his numbers aren’t AMAZING. Actually, he would have the worst ERA+ for a Cy Younger winner since… Rick Porcello in 2016.. lol. Yes, he might win the AL Triple Crown, and if he does then whatever give him the award. But until that moment, I am riding with the player who has been unstoppable this year. Emmanuel Clase.

Rookie Of The Year- Ceddanne Rafaela

• This might be the only pick of mine that I am not changing. The “betting favorite” is Colton Cowser, “ but he is about .6 bWAR less than Rafaela and Wells. So, I think it becomes a race between Wells and Rafaela. As a Red Sox fan, you would expect me to jump on Rafaela, but I don’t let me affiliations get in the way of my decision making. That being said, I am picking Rafaela hehehe. I acknowledge the 40 game difference between them and yet they still have the same bWAR. However, that is part of the motivation for my choice. While his numbers aren’t AMAZING, they are consistent. Rafaela has been out there everyday playing multiple positions. He also has had a number of clutch hits late in games.

• If I had a gun to my head, I would probably pick Wells as being the better player over the next five years. However, this year I am giving it to Ceddanne.

National League

MVP- Shohei Ohtani

• While you might think because of my Witt Jr claim, that I would lean towards Francisco Lindor as he is the more “complete player.” While that is true, Lindor is not having the generational type season that Witt is having. It is also near impossible to argue with a 50/50 season.

• Ohtani gets the nod.

Cy Young- Chris Sale

• Everything I said above about voters not caring about IP anymore stands true. Sale, at best, will pitch 185ish innings this season. So, while I lean Clase because of the dominance, I have to go Sale here as Skenes isn’t “that much” better.

• Sale’s ERA+ puts him on par with many recent winners and while Skenes 200 ERA+ is higher, it is not as significant when you take the innings difference into account. Also, while Skenes is known for his strikeouts, he only has a .01 lead on Sale in the K% department while being a full 1.0% behind him in BB %.

• Of all the awards this year, I believe this to be the easiest choice.

• Also, I have a bunch of screenshots from Red Sox fans saying Grissom is amazing and Sale sucks. I am debating releasing them.

Rookie Of The Year- Paul Skenes

• Just look above, the guy could be the Cy Young. While I love Jackson Merrill, I think the hype of Skenes is too significant for voters to look away. PERSONALLY, I would vote for Merrill. I just don’t think he is going to win.

That is all folks! If you haven’t already, please consider subscribing below!