Dax Kilby’s Pro Start Has Yankees Fans Excited For The 18-Year-Old’s Future
A Blog By Tobey
Dax Kilby has just played 12 games of professional baseball within the Yankees organization. At just 18-years-old however, what he’s done in that short period of time against Low-A competition has Yankees fans very excited about the future of their 2025 first round draft pick.
Kilby was taken with the 39th overall pick in this past draft. The Yankees No. 7 prospect would sign for just under $3 million dollars shortly after leading Newnan High School to its first state championship in almost 40 years.
After going very pitcher heavy in the 2024 MLB Draft, the Yankees went with the Clemson commit for the contact profile he possesses. At 6-foot-2 and 190 lbs, Kilby has a compact left handed swing that gets the bat efficiently through the zone. He makes incredibly mature swing decisions for his age, and just out of high school, one would think the power ceiling hasn’t been fully tapped into.
Profile: MLB Pipeline
His plus speed leaves no question to whether or not he can cover the ground at short, but his glove does leave a question as to whether or not he can man the shortstop position at the highest level.
While the defense may turn out to be more of a work in progress than anything else, the hit tool has shined so far to start his professional career:
12 G
46 AB
.348 AVG
.434 OBP
.435 SLG
.869 OPS
16 H
2 2B
1 3B
11 R
8 RBI
7 BB
6 SO
10 SB
.421 wOBA
150 wRC+
More walks than strikeouts, 16 hits, a .434 on-base%, and 10 SB…Kilby is a run producing machine. He’s managed to score in 9 of his 12 games played so far and in the 3 he hasn’t, he still has 2 RBI.
In his short cup of coffee as a professional baseball player so far, Kilby’s offensive production has been turning heads. When we look at the advanced profile, we can see Prospect Savant has given him a 100 PS Score! High praise for a very young player.
Image: Prospect Savant
He’s been everything as advertised and this short stretch has shown that there still is more power in the tank. He’s among the best in Chase%, K%, Whiff%, Spd, and has even shown very impressive EV and Hard-Hit numbers to start his time with Tampa.
It’s still very early to look into how he’s done against each pitch type, but from the jump fastballs have been the pitch type he’s having the most success against. Not the Four-Seamer, but rather the Sinker and the Cutter.
Stats vs. Fastball Types:
Fastball (28.6% Usage): .191 xBA | .284 xwOBA | .340 xSLG | 9.09% Whiff% | 41.67% HH%
Sinker (26.5% Usage): .431 xBA | .466 xwOBA | .534 xSLG | 15.79 Whiff% | 60% HH%
Cutter (12.7% Usage): .301 xBA | .324 xwOBA | .323 xSLG | 27.27% Whiff% | 50% HH%
Video: @jbrophybaseball on X
Kilby has also had noticeable success against the Changeup more than any other pitch, with the highest xwOBA mark at .519, highest xBA at .497, and xSLG at .578. With a 50% Hard-Hit rate on Sliders, he’s shown the ability to hit a variety of pro pitches in a short amount of time.
It’s interesting to look at his Heatmaps to start his career. We can see where Kilby has success in the zone fresh out of high school. When looking at his xwOBA in each Zone, he’s unsurprisingly best in the middle and top of the zone (Zone 2 & 5).
Image: Prospect Savant
It may not be a surprise to many to see Kilby having a lot of success here. As a bat fresh out of high school will likely see the most success in the most favorable spots to hit. It speaks to his ability to make in zone contact and be effective at that with a .478 and .425 xwOBA in both Zones 2 & 5.
He’s excelled in Zone 4 as well with a .473 xwOBA, great for Kilby as he’s known to be a hitter to take the ball to the gaps. Low in the zone there’s not too much success but when expanding outside of the zone, up and away has shown success if he’s going to commit a rare chase.
His batted ball profile shows a bat that takes the ball up the middle a majority of the time with pull-side contact following shortly behind. With not much of a power profile the PullAir% is not much of a concern, but for someone with that success on the outside of the zone, the Oppo% is surprisingly low at just below 19%. Again still a very small sample size to look at, but interesting to look at.
Image: Prospect Savant
Many hitters and prospects alone wouldn’t be worth taking a deep dive after just a 12 game sample size. Kilby’s profile and intriguing start has made it impossible to ignore and for a farm system depleted of quality bats, the Yankees and their fans have to love everything they see from Kilby.
Kilby will be 19 in November, meaning he’ll be 19 the entirety of the 2026 season. With the start that he’s had to play Low-A baseball in Tampa, it’s likely he’ll spend a lot of time in Hudson Valley at High-A.