Changes I Would Like To See From Colin Poche
A few tweaks I want to see from Colin Poche
Opening
An intriguing free agent for me that no one is talking about is Colin Poche. Poche is heading into his 30-year-old season with 4 years of service time and solid numbers to show for so far in his career. Some changes I would like to see Poche make are to gain back the effectiveness of his 4-seam FB, tighten up his slider, and bring back his splitter. I believe Poche has the capability to be an impactful piece out of the bullpen for a relatively cheap price.
Delivery Characteristics
Before getting into the adjustments I would like to see from Poche, let's take a look at his delivery characteristics. Poche is a lefty high-slot pronator due to his fastball's high spin efficiency of 98.1% (2023) with a wide ISA and exterior rational bias that produces a relatively North-to-South arsenal. Poche has an above-average release height of 6.1’ due to his 65-degree arm angle despite having elite extension of 7.2’. In 2024 Poche lost over 1.3 MPH on his fastball, which I believe was caused by the injuries he sustained in 2024, which led to a hindering in his delivery.
What I mean by this is how Poche had slightly less scap load when his lead leg planted into the ground. Consequently, not allowing his shoulder to stay back as long, which creates less torque in his delivery. This slight change of not loading his scap effectively is one of the reasons his fastball and slider were not as effective as before, and with a slight change back, we could see Poche gain back his prior effectiveness. Of course, like I said before, this delivery change was most likely to adjust for the injuries that he sustained in 2024, but I believe with a full offseason to heal, he can regain his prior delivery.
Gain Back 4 Seam Effectiveness
Like I said previously, as a result of the injuries and the less effective scap load, the successfulness of Poches arsenal decreased. This is evident with his fastball especially. In 2023, this pitch had a shape of 20.3 iVB and -1.7 iHB while being thrown at 92.5 MPH, with results of .234 AVG, .304 wOBA, .273 xwOBA, 22.0 Whiff%, and 34.3 O-Sw%. Compare this to 2024, where the shape fell to a less effective 18.9 iVB and -2.2 iHB while also losing velocity to 91.2 MPH. This pitch was only able to produce a .227 AVG, .304 wOBA, .328 xwOBA, 16.7 Whiff%, and 25.5 O-Sw%.
A major key to Poche's success this upcoming season is to regain the effectiveness of his fastball. What makes his 2023 shape so much better than his 2024 shape is his ability to generate 1.4 more iVB and his ability to throw it 1.3 MPH harder. What makes Poches's fastball so effective, though, is his ability to create over 5.4” of cut and 0.2” of ride compared to the average fastball from his arm angle. I believe that with an offseason to regain his strengths, Poche can replicate this shape by throwing from his more efficient delivery.
Tighten up his Slider
The next adjustment I would like to see Poche make is to tighten up his slider. In 2024, Poche threw a slider with more sweep than prior, which was less effective. We see this with the shapes where in 2023 it had 4.4 iVB and -4.1 iHB while being thrown at 84.5 MPH. In 2024, though, this pitch had 3.1 iVB and -5.9 iHB while being thrown at 83.1 MPH. As a result, his 2023 numbers were much more effective, posting a .127 AVG, .171 wOBA, .187 xwOBA, 41.0 Whiff%, and 33.5 O-Sw%, while his 2024 shape produced a .200 AVG, .255 wOBA, .247 xwOBA, 36.8 Whiff%, and 34.0 O-Sw%.
What I suspect happened is that the 2024 shape didn't tunnel as well with his fastball as his 2023 shape could. Allowing hitters to effectively pick up on the slider and, as a result, produce better numbers. I believe that reverting back to his prior slider shape will allow for him to add velocity to this pitch as well as produce better results.
Bring Back Splitter
The next change I would like to see Poche make is to add a splitter to his shallow arsenal. One main problem with Poche is that he doesn't have a pitch that has arm-side run and depth. Due to him being a high slot pronator, he’ll have trouble generating depth on a changeup effectively due to the axis being high without some sort of SSW, so I believe a splitter would be the perfect fit.
Like I said previously Poche most likely won't be able to generate insane amounts of depth with this pitch, but it's all relative to his fastball. What I mean by this is that due to his fastball producing effective ride, having a separation of 6-8 inches of iVB can allow for this pitch to excel. Pair this with the perceived depth of his arm angle and the velocity separation between these pitches, and I see this pitch being very effective.
Luckily, Poche has thrown this pitch in his career. This pitch had a shape of 11.0 iVB and 8.1 iHB while being thrown at 83.2 MPH but had horrible results of 1.000 AVG, .968 wOBA, 0 Whiff%, and 0 O-Sw%. Granted, this is in a small sample size of 13 pitches, so these numbers are extremely skewed. I don't think we should rule out this pitch because of one bad sample, but rather experiment with it more, like a possible grip change. What I love about this pitch, though, is that it can allow for Poche to take his arsenal to the next level and be extremely effective vs. both handedness.
Conclusion
All in all, I believe that Poche has the attributes to be a productive arm out of the pen for a relatively cheap price. A concern that some may have is that his velocity is too slow, but if he reverts back to his previous delivery with effective scap load, with his already deceptive delivery and big extension, then the velocity will play. To go along with this mechanic fix, I believe that he will regain his effective 4 seam; he should tighten up his slider, and bring back his splitter. Poche is an overlooked free agent who can be extremely effective if a team takes a chance on him in 2025.