Ceddanne Rafaela's Rise.
Between March, April and May, Ceddane Rafaela's OPS hovered between .600-.675 and he was considered the odd man out in a strong Red Sox outfield. Now, he's a star in the making.
Spring Training was a sign.
Rafaela made it clear that he wanted to show off the work he put in during the offseason. He claimed all he worked on was his discipline, cutting down his chase rate and getting himself in better counts. And he proved it: In 16 Spring Training games, Rafaela played to a .316/.409/.526 slash line, but more importantly, walked more (13.6%) than he struck out (9.1%).
Heading into the regular season, fans were optimistic about this ‘new’ version of Rafaela. The former Top 100 Prospect was known for his defensive talent, his .280/.331/.475 slash line and .806 OPS over 424 MiLB games showed there was something extra there.
We just needed to see it to believe it.
March, April and May were a price we had to pay.
Those first three months of the season were brutal for Rafaela and those hoping he was going to take a step forward. He wasn’t a regular starter, and the numbers were awful.
Through his first 55 regular-season games, Rafaela had a .239/.288/.359 slash line and .647 OPS and a 75 wrc+. His Chase% was back up to 43.6% compared to the sub-40%’s we saw during Spring Training and his over-aggressive approach, proven by his 60% Swing% was clearly not working, yet it looked like he refused to make any adjustments. Rafaela was the odd man out in an outfield that was awaiting the promotion of Roman Anthony, and trade rumours were persistent, with some even calling for the Red Sox to release him.
Luckily, they never did. Despite his poor performance, Rafaela was showing that the breakout was imminent: His 12.5% Barrel% over this three-month period was 3rd best among Red Sox players, beating the likes of Alex Bregman & Jarren Duran.
From June 1st onwards, the Ceddanne Rafaela Boston fans had been hoping to see for the past three years, arrived.
The Pete-Crow Armstrong blueprint.
Since June 1st, Rafaela has turned his entire season around, playing to a fantastic .317/.353/.651 slash line, with 10 home runs and 5 stolen bases over 35 games. Over this time period he:
Leads the Boston Red Sox in home runs, batting average and slugging%.
Is 2nd in Red Sox wrc+ (172), wOBA (.425) and RBI’s (26).
Is 3rd in MLB WAR (2.2), only trailing Cal Raleigh and Juan Soto.
However, it’s more about the adjustments he made. Rafaela’s power was always considered above-averae despite his smaller stature, but besides some hard-hit balls, Rafaela never really impressed with true in-game power.
Let’s have a look at some of the adjustments he made:
On June 3rd, Rafaela pulled 11.3% of his fly balls. Since then, he has pulled 30% of fly balls and 60% of line drives over this period. All of his home runs have gone pull-side.
His Whiff% hovered between 26-27%. Since June 1st, it has dropped a staggering 5% to 22.4%, which is now below league-average.
He has improved his Ideal Angle% from 50%, which is league-average, to 58%, which is near-elite.
His 43.4% Chase% was a 3% decrease compared to his 2024 season, but since June1st, his 39.3% Chase% is a career-best.
His plate discipline remains poor, but better. And more importantly, he’s taking after the blueprint of one of the most succesful young players in baseball who is almost a carbon-copy of Rafaela, and that is Pete-Crow Armstrong. A ridiculously good defender with extremely poor plate discipline, but good enough power to blast 30, potentially 40 home runs to the pull side.
And the underlying, batted-ball metrics point towards a definite breakout for Rafaela. He has improved his in-zone work considerably, increasing his Z-Contact% from 75% to 82.4% and has trimmed down his Whiff% from 33% to 26.6%, which might only improve as time goes on. These season-wide improvements, paired with the improving plate discipline, success against all three pitch types and well above-average Hard-Hit%, Barrel%, xSLG and xWOBA prove that this is not due to sheer luck.
He’s closing the gap between his actual and expected metrics while amking the most out of his above-average power. This has turned the dimunitive outfielder from a potential late-game defensive replacement to a four, maybe even five-tool outfielder when he’s performing like this. It’s likely going to be a career with the highest highs and lowest lows, but this is bound to come with players of the Rafaela archetype.
An elite defender that’s finally making up on his offensive promise, happening right in front of our eyes.
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