Can the Rangers Take Robert Garcia to the Next Level?
A deep dive into possible changes the Rangers could make to Robert Garcia.
Opening
Last week the Rangers made a trade that sent Nathaniel Lowe to the Nationals in return for Robert Garcia. Many fans were skeptical about this move because of Lowe's consistency and chemistry with the team, but I loved it. Garcia is an extremely underrated pitcher that many have never heard of because he was on the Nationals, but I can assure you he's great. In 2024 Garcia underperformed his expected stats with a 4.22 ERA despite a 2.52 xERA and 2.38 FIP.
This trade not only allows for Jake Burger to fill Lowe's spot at first, who they traded for earlier in the offseason, but also bolsters their bullpen, which ranked 26th out of 30 in ERA with a 4.41 ERA. I believe that with some development of Garcia, this move can turn out to be extremely promising for the Rangers. Some adjustments I would be inclined to see are positioning 3rd base side vs. righties, locating his 4-seam fastball high more consistently, and adding a cutter to fend off righties.
Delivery Characteristics
First off, let's dive into Robert Garcia's delivery characteristics. Garcia is a lefty low-slot supinator, due to his low spin efficiency on his 4-seam fastball (89.0%) and ability to generate effective velocity on his slider. Garcia is a wide ISA because of his wider frame and flat helical angle. Garcia favors towards more of an internal rotation bias, allowing for him to effectively rotate around his lead leg and be powerful through the delivery. This closed delivery, paired with his 24-degree arm angle and 6.7’ of extension, allows for Garcia to get down to a below-average release height of 5.5’.
One change I think could bolster Garcia's effectiveness is to position himself towards the third base side of the rubber against righties. Currently, Garcia sets up predominantly on the 1st base side vs. both handedness, which is extremely effective against lefties, due to his closed stride and low arm angle giving the impression that he's throwing from behind batters. To righties, though, he doesn't have this same advantage. I believe that a change to the 3rd base side would allow for him to play into his current arsenal against righties by allowing Garcia to have more forgiveness and room to work with as the ball fades on his changeup. While at the same time allowing for him to get in on righties more effectively with his 4-seam and possibly cutter, which I hope he adds.
Locating 4 Seam Fastball High
The first non-mechanical adjustment I could see the Rangers making to Garcia is to predominantly throw his fastball high. In 2024, Garcia's 4-seam fastball had a shape of 13.6 iVB and 10.6 iHB while being thrown at 94.5 MPH. This pitch had a relatively average movement profile with 0.7” of unexpected run and no unanticipated ride. Despite this average movement profile, he was able to produce relatively productive results with a .254 AVG, .309 wOBA, .301 xwOBA, 25.2 Whiff%, and 28.9 O-Sw%. What's interesting, though, is that Garcia was able to produce these successful results despite underutilizing the top of the zone.
What I mean by this is that since Garcia is able to produce a low release height of 5.5’, he has the ability to generate a relatively low VAA at the top of the zone. This ability to have a flat trajectory towards the plate will allow for this pitch to perform better at the top of the zone due to its ability to stay on plane and produce whiffs. Despite this fact, in 2024, Garcia only threw his 4-seam to the upper thirds 39.8% of the time, which is far below the league average of 51.1%. A slight change of location to predominantly throw this pitch in the upper thirds could allow for Garcia to take that next step in effectiveness.
Addition of a Cutter
The final change I could see the Rangers implementing to Garcia is possibly adding a cutter. Throughout his major league career, Garcia has predominantly been worse against opposite-handedness. This stems from his shallow arsenal of mainly a two-pitch attack vs. righties, with his changeup leading the way with a 53% usage, 4-seam at 42%, and his slider practically never being used at 5%.
The addition of a cutter could really take Garcia to the next level. First off, it would play into the rubber positioning adjustment to righties by being able to get in on them more effectively. This is due to him not having to get so out in front at release like his prior delivery to get inside but rather start closer to that inside half and have leeway at release. The effects of a cutter wouldn't stop there; it would also allow for his changeup to be more effective as a result. Due to the cutter possessing a threat of coming inside, hitters will have to consciously have that in mind. As a result, his changeup can play off of this and be extremely effective low and away, which is coincidentally already the predominant location of his changeup. Lastly, this addition would allow for his unpredictability to increase when facing righties. Like I prefaced earlier, he throws predominantly two pitches against opposite-handed batters, which both run arm side. The addition of this cutter would allow for him to have a pitch he can go to consistently with glove-side movement, causing hitters to account for different parts of the zone, increasing his randomness.
Usage Changes
With the addition of a possible cutter to his arsenal, Garcia is bound to experience a few usage changes. In 2024, against righties, Garcia had a two-pitch mix, throwing 42% four-seam fastballs, 53% changeups, and a rare slider at 5%. His best pitch by far was his changeup, producing elite results with a .200 AVG, .195 wOBA, .172 xwOBA, 37.2 Whiff%, and 45.3 O-Sw%. Due to this, I see the Rangers making the adjustment of slightly bringing down his 4-seam to 35%, changeup up to 40%, keeping his slider at 5%, and throwing his newly added cutter 20% of the time.
Against lefties in 2024, Garcia had a similar but different usage of his arsenal. Like he does against righties, Garcia strictly used two pitches against lefties, throwing his 4-seam 69% and his slider 31% of the time. Both of these pitches were effective in their own respect, with his fastball producing a .230 AVG, .275 wOBA, .261 xwOBA, and a 25.2 Whiff%, while his slider produced a .219 AVG, .247 wOBA, .267 xwOBA, and a 29.8 Whiff%. To incorporate his cutter, I think the Rangers will pull it straight from the 4 seam. Leading to a new usage of 55% 4 seam, 35% slider, <5% changeup, and 10% cutter against lefties.
Conclusion
All in all, I love this trade for the Rangers. They had to give up Lowe, which may sting some fans, but they have a 1st baseman in Burger who can fill his role nicely. In return, the Rangers get a possible high-leverage arm that they are in much need of. I think with a few changes, like a positioning change to the 3rd base side of the rubber against righties, locating his 4-seam high, and the addition of a cutter, Garcia can prosper. I'm intrigued to see how Garcia performs next season, especially if he makes these adjustments.