Can Burch Smith Break Camp With the Pirates?
A Deep Dive Into Burch Smith and a Possible Path to Improvement.
Opening
Earlier this week the Pittsburgh Pirates went out and signed two players: one being Burch Smith and the other Bryce Johnson, both to minor league deals. These names may not jump out to the average baseball fan, but I would love to see how these guys can help the Pirates in 2025. Throughout this article I'm going to be assessing Smith in particular and possible adjustments that he could make to compete for a spot in the Pirates bullpen.
Last season, Smith made his return to the MLB after spending the past two seasons in the NPB and KBO, where he posted a 4.95 ERA, 4.46 xERA, and 3.66 FIP. Of course, these aren't the greatest results, but they have improved much from his time with the A’s in 21', where he posted a 5.40 ERA, 4.69 xERA, and a 4.21 FIP. Besides these poor results, Smith still offers intangibles such as a deep repertoire, thanks to his supination bias, and the ability to generate above-average velocity on his offerings.
These intangibles give me hope that Smith can possibly be a productive reliever in 25’ for the Pirates despite coming on his 35-year-old season. Adjustments I could see the Pirates making are to make his cutter a more consistent shape, add a splitter/kick change, and decrease the usage of his 4-seam. To me, the most important adjustment to make is to add an additional pitch arm side besides his 4-seam. I'll get into this more in-depth later, but I think Smith has an opportunity to break camp with the Pirates in 25’.
Delivery Characteristics
Before making any adjustments, let's look at Smith's delivery characteristics. Smith is a righty stock-slot supinator due to his 89.6% spin efficiency on his 4-seam and his ability to maintain velocity on his breaking pitches. Looking at his delivery, it's evident why he’s able to produce exceptional velocities at times. To begin his windup, Smith is very upright and transitions into his delivery with efficient movements. Coming down the mound, Smith has an effective drop phase and lands partially closed with an effective use of his lead leg block as a rotation point into delivery. Once Smith lands, he produces hip-shoulder separation, which allows for effective storage and, ultimately, release of energy into the pitch. With this delivery, Smith is able to produce a 5.6’ release height in large part due to his 6.8’ of extension and 39-degree arm angle.
More Consistent Cutter Shape
The first adjustment I believe Smith should make is to implement a more consistent cutter shape. As you can see below, this pitch ranges from about eight iVB to, at times, -1 iVB, leading me to the conclusion that he either doesn't have the greatest feel for this pitch, leading to undesirable locations within the zone. For example, if he's attempting to go up and in on lefties, he may miss belt high as a result. Consequently, this led to undesirable overall results on this pitch, with a .404 AVG, .422 wOBA, .388 xwOBA, and a 21.0 Whiff%.
Now, which distinction of his cutter would be most beneficial for Smith's arsenal? I think he should prioritize the cutter shape with a cut ride shape as opposed to a depth cutter. The reason I believe this is to allow for a more distinct separation from his sweeper, limiting the concern of its possibly blending. My thoughts are that if a pitcher spins his pitches (e.g., Smith with his sweeper and depthy cutter shape), they will more likely blend together. This possible inconsistency is why I believe Smith should prioritize a more traditional cutter. It won't require him to manipulate this pitch, but rather get behind this pitch more, and eliminate the undesirable effects of it blending with his sweeper.
Arm Side Depth
To go along with the more consistent cutter shape, an adjustment I could see the Pirates making to Smith is implementing arm-side depth to his repertoire. Currently, as you can see below, Smith has a bias towards supination and heavily relies on it, consequently neglecting arm-side movement. This neglection has caused him to have a tougher time against opposite-handedness, posting a .318 AVG, .471 SLG, and .358 wOBA against lefties, while against righties he posed a .270 AVG, .401 SLG, and a .309 wOBA.
To help with this, I believe Smith should try to develop some form of a splitter/kick change. Currently, Smith throws a changeup, but because of his supination bias, which I hinted at previously, he has a hard time turning it over and creating depth on this pitch. Possibly implementing a splitter or a kick change would allow him to develop this needed arm-side depth. This addition would allow Smith to make hitters anticipate a movement profile from which they had never had to before. Ergo, possibly allowing Smith to better his results against opposite-handedness.
Decrease 4-Seam Usage
The final adjustment I would like to see the Pirates make is to bring down his 4-seam usage. One of Smith's best weapons is his ability to produce multiple breaking pitch shapes due to his supination bias, but he doesn't utilize it! Currently, he's throwing his 4-seam over 50% of the time and using his cutter, curve, and sweeper more as throw-in pitches rather than weapons. To really maximize Smith's effectiveness, he needs to lean on this ability to be more unpredictable and make hitters account for parts of the zone they hadn't had to before. Add on the possibility of adding arm side depth with a possible splitter/kick change, and we could see a much more unpredictable version of Smith in 25’ than in years prior.
Conclusion
All in all, I really do like this signing for the Pirates. They get a veteran pitcher for little to nothing who could contribute at the Major League level. Of course, he will have to break camp out of spring training, but with the Pirates bullpen being so unproven, there's a real possibility he will do so. Some adjustments I would like to see from Smith to break camp are a more consistent cutter shape, development of arm-side depth with a pitch, and to lean on his ability to produce an expanded repertoire. He may never be a big name, but his impact on the Pirates could be huge, hinging on a few potential changes.
Thanks for reading!
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