Brett's Under and Over Performers...Thus Far
While I was out watching baseball at American Family Field for the first time ever this past weekend, Dean mentioned on the podcast that I would put together a small piece to highlight some of the most notable under and over performers so far this season. You can listen to me go in depth on these 6 players on our Podcast “The Skippers View” on Apple Music and Spotify later today. But if you would rather read a quick synopsis of my thoughts on these over and underachievers!
(P.S. - stats for article all came from before 5.15.2023)
Photo Credit: Data Skrive
Under Performers:
Trea Turner
Stats - 24 R / 4 HR / 10 RBI / 5 SB / 12 BB / .262 BA / .716 OPS
Preseason Rank 4 -> Current Rank 376
Summary - New home field and might just be having a tough time adjusting but Bryce Harper just back and will hopefully continue to inject this offense with energy instead of bench clearing fights!
Julio Rodriguez
Stats - 26 R / 7 HR / 20 RBI / 7 SB / 13 BB / .215 BA / .682 OPS
Preseason Rank 5 -> Current Rank 245
Summary - In my opinion this dude is way too talented for a full on sophomore slump. His counting stats aren’t even that bad but he needs to start hitting more consistently which I have no doubt will come soon.
Manny Machado
Stats - 18 R / 5 HR / 18 RBI / 2 SB / 11 BB / .232 BA / .654 OPS
Preseason Rank 28 -> Current Rank 569
Summary - I am concerned here but let’s not start full panic mode. 35 strikeouts to 11 walks is not ideal. I think Manny will bounce back but he isn’t getting any younger and is the oldest player on this list who just signed for big money before the season which always gets me nervous for regression.
Bobby Witt Jr.
Stats - 26 R / 7 HR / 18 RBI / 12 SB / 9 BB / .233 BA / .713 OPS
Preseason Rank 30 -> Current Rank 199
Summary - Not completely fair that Kansas City stinks to include Witt Jr. on this list as he is only a 2nd year player and is still a top 200 player according to Yahoo Fantasy Baseball. Notice all the rest of these players I am highlighting in the underachievers are on contending ball clubs. Understood that the environment isn’t a direct result to individual performance but when you have less opportunity to score runs, drive runs in, etc your counting stats will suffer as a result and I think there is some reason to attribute the lackluster performance to that as well as “sophomore slump”. Just like Julio, way too talented to not pick it up as we move along in the season.
Francisco Lindor
24 R / 6 HR / 31 RBI / 4 SB / 15 BB / .223 BA / .729 OPS
Preseason Rank 34 -> Current Rank 155
Summary - Lindor is just not the player that he was on the Guardians. Since being with New York he has yet to reach an All Star game and/or earn a gold glove award. Still a top player in the league but I am personally starting to fade Lindor in leagues.
Over Performers:
Brent Rooker
Stats - 19 R / 11 HR / 29 RBI / 1 SB / 21 BB / .308 BA / 1.070 OPS
Preseason Rank 1757 -> Current Rank 7
Summary - This is insane. I swear that I follow baseball intently and do my best to educate myself with the top 100-150ish prospects and I have legit never heard of this dude before a few short weeks ago. No I do not think he will keep this pace whatsoever but we’ve seen crazier things. I certainly hope he keeps it up but history tells us it is not likely that Mr. Rooker will continue to shock the baseball world and crush baseballs at elite rates.
Josh Lowe
Stats - 23 R / 9 HR / 28 RBI / 6 SB / 10 BB / .306 BA / .995 OPS
Preseason Rank 538 -> Current Rank 22
Summary - Lowe was a big time prospect for the Rays and people were taking looks at him last year. Looks like he has finally hit his stride and his potential is being put on display. I think he is here to stay and this breakout is real. Not saying he will keep up at these rates but I do believe in the player here and would be trying to grab him in dynasty leagues.
Patrick Wisdom
Stats - 25 R / 12 HR / 23 RBI / 2 SB / 17 BB / .240 BA / .925 OPS
Preseason Rank 214 -> Current Rank 38
Summary - Wisdom can certainly swing a bat. Unsure if it will continue to be at this level though. Wisdom is 31 years old and has never hit more than 28 home runs and 66 RBI’s in a season and he is currently on pace to shatter those numbers. I am not saying “because he hasn’t, doesn’t mean he can’t”, I am just more of a realist looking at the facts. What is more likely? Age 31 breakout or a hot start? He also owns a career .220 BA across 6 seasons with a combined 1137 plate appearances. My point is based on the numbers that we can make a fair assessment of who Patrick Wisdom is and it might be a good time to sell.
James Outman
Stats - 26 R / 8 HR / 23 RBI / 4 SB / 16 BB / .267 BA / .909 OPS
Preseason Rank 273 -> Current Rank 42
Summary - I think I am putting James on here simply because he is a rookie and he really hasn’t experienced anything but success since becoming an MLB regular. He was considered a very good prospect so he definitely has the talent to sustain success in the MLB. Doesn’t hurt to be in one of the best organizations of baseball in terms of development so I’d expect this breakout to be for real. That being said I’d expect some regression so might be able to get him for a better price when he takes on his first slump but if you are “in” on Outman, I support! Go get this guy, he is a player and looks to be a regular for years in the Los Angeles outfield.
Nolan Gorman
Stats - 14 R / 9 HR / 28 RBI / 3 SB / 17 BB / .270 BA / .931 OPS
Preseason Rank 267 -> Current Rank 56
Summary - Another great organization for player development. This breakout is for real. Multiple industry experts had Gorman on their sleepers & breakout lists for this year and it looks like everyone is starting to be proven right. Gorman has been one of the few good things going on in St. Louis. Not to mention he is doing it from a shallow position. I am all in on Gorman for this year.