Brett's 2024 Fantasy Busts 1.0

Photo Credit - Gregory Fisher / USA Today

Every year some players break out and some players bust. While I prep for my 6x fantasy baseball drafts this year, there are some guys I am noticing being drafted in the Top-100 ADP, that I am simply out on for the 2024 season. The ADP list I am referencing is coming from FantasyPros Expert Consensus Ranking (which I think is a wonderful rankings system), just expressing my opinion on some guys based on numbers, scenarios, age, etc. This list is also curated to my dynasty league which is a 5x5 roto format for scoring. 

One thing I’d like to note and make clear.  Players who make my “bust” list are good and can go on to have good if not great seasons. I am simply looking at this as busting from their Average Draft Position.

#43 Overall - Randy Arozarena

The first player I noticed on this list is a Tampa Bay Ray, Randy Arozarena. Coming off an All-Star season so this seems harsh. Nothing against Arozarena, I just see others beneath him that I would rather take a gamble on. Say Mike Trout at 52? (insert popping eyes emoji)

Randy Arozarena is a career .265 hitter and has struck out at least 156x or more / per season over the last three years. Good for the top 30 in the entire big leagues each of those years. Not a category you want to be ranked high on. He has never hit north of 90 RBIs in a season and the power we can assume will get us between 20-25 home runs. Overall a fantastic ball player. I am just looking at this as there are guys below him that I think offer more. Not to mention the batting average has fallen every year of his career as the At-Bat numbers climb. 

2023:

3.5 WAR | 551 AB | 140 H | 23 HR | .254 BA | 95 R | 83 RBI | 22 SB | .364 OBP | .425 SLG | .789 OPS

CAREER: 

11.4 WAR | 1750 AB | 463 H | 71 HR | .265 BA | 280 R | 254 RBI | 80 SB | .351 OBP | .451 SLG | .802 OPS

#63 Overall - Paul Goldschmidt

It was very tough to put Goldy in this article but Mother Time is undefeated. At age 36 Goldschmidt is still a very effective player if not one of the best players in major league baseball. Understood that 2022 was not that long ago when Goldschmidt slashed .317/.404/.578 and there is a world that can happen again this year. I just don’t see it. The problem is I can’t unsee last year in my head. He dropped almost 50 points in batting average and had his 3rd most strikeouts in a season with 161! If he played in 162 games, I don’t doubt he would have ended with the most he has ever had in a season. Another thing to call out, it was the least amount of home runs he has hit in a season since 2016 outside of the 2020 Covid season. 

The important thing to note was the entire Cardinals organization was bad last year. Will the Cardinals and/or Goldschmidt rebound? For the sake of competition, I sure hope so. Last year was the first season since 2012 that Goldy wasn’t awarded or received votes for any of these awards… All-Star, Gold Glove, MVP, or a Silver Slugger award. Something I would say is notable, considering the age.

2023:

3.4 WAR | 593 AB | 159 H | 25 HR | .268 BA | 89 R | 80 RBI | 11 SB | .363 OBP | .447 SLG | .810 OPS

CAREER:

61.7 WAR | 6520 AB | 1909 H | 340 HR | .293 BA | 1134 R | 1122 RBI | 158 SB | .388 OBP | .519 SLG | .907 OPS

#91 Overall - Joe Ryan

Pitchers are everywhere, pitchers are nowhere. I live by one rule when it comes to pitching in fantasy. Don’t overpay for it in drafts. That is exactly what I think would be happening by drafting Joe Ryan at #91 overall for 2024. Ryan is a solid pitcher who owns a career 4.05 ERA. I know another harsh take following a 197-strikeout season. There are several things here that I don’t like. I might be tinkering too much with this analysis but it is the most innings Ryan has thrown in a season during his major league career. Not only did the ERA bump up from 3.55 in 2022 to 4.51 in 2023, the WHIP jumped from 1.102 to 1.169. Funny enough he wasn’t walking more batters. He gave up 12 more long balls and 40 more hits in 2023 in only 14 additional innings. I am cautiously optimistic about Ryan, I just would try and grab a bat during the time he is being considered and grab a different pitcher later in the draft as I don’t think a top-100 return is in the cards for this year. 

2023: 

1.2 WAR | 11 W | 10 L | 4.51 ERA | 29 G | 29 GS | 161.2 IP | 197 SO | 1.169 WHIP

CAREER:

3.8 WAR | 26 W | 19 L | 4.05 ERA | 61 G | 61 GS | 335.1 IP | 378 SO | 1.109 WHIP