Editor’s Note: All my graphics going forward will come directly from Stat Soldier. Go check it out by clicking here.
Let’s be honest. The Cy Young is almost certainly going to Jacob Misiorowski at this point. Does that mean we can’t break down the top-4 pitchers in terms of odds (according to FanDuel Sportsbook) in contention to win the 2026 Cy Young Award? Absolutely not. Also, the season isn't over, and we could see a Misiorowski implosion and someone else step up in a big way over the last month of the regular season.
Crazier things have happened!
Jacob Misiorowski (-600)
2026 - 26 GS | 155 IP | 14 W | 1.97 ERA | 0.79 WHIP | 227 K | 17 QS
It feels like it has been “The Miz”’s year, all season long. He has been utterly dominant for Milwaukee this season, and the numbers speak for themselves. Misiorowski leads all of baseball in strikeouts (227), K/9 (13.2), and WHIP (0.79) among qualified starters.
It is not only the results but the delivery with Misiorowski. According to tracking data, he has thrown 934 pitches that have reached or exceeded 100 mph this season. That is actually absurd. As a baseball fan and an avid fan of Misiorowski, I hope that arm can pitch forever. As a realist, I’d expect a velocity setback at some point, but right now it doesn't look like it will dip in 2026.
The one thing to nitpick from Misiorowski’s fantastic season is the number of innings he has thrown. He has the 3rd-least innings pitched of the four players we are highlighting today. That was due to the Brewers scratching him from a start as they saw arm fatigue setting in. Although he didn’t have an IL stint, he did still miss some time, technically speaking.
Chris Sale (+500)
2026 - 24 GS | 144 IP | 13 W | 2.06 ERA | 1.00 WHIP | 177 K | 17 QS
If you need to validate the legitimacy of Chris Sale’s Cy Young candidacy…go read Dean’s blog.
Chris Sale has been unreal this season. If Sale gets 23 more strikeouts this season, it will be his 9th time eclipsing the 200-K mark in a season in his career. I think Sale is a 1st-ballot Hall of Famer with or without the award this season. He already has a Cy Young Award (2024) and a pitching Triple Crown, plus an additional 7 finishes inside the CYA-6 in his illustrious career.
Will he get his 2nd Cy Young this year? I’d love to say he can, but the innings are a problem. Only 144 innings pitched this season, which is the least among the four betting favorites, and that is a big deal to voters.
Cristopher Sanchez (+2000)
2026 - 28 GS | 175.1 IP | 16 W | 2.52 ERA | 1.19 WHIP | 202 K | 19 QS
I feel Sanchez has been getting the short end of the stick recently when it comes to accolades on his resume. The list of pitchers to have a better combined 2025 and 2026 is short. Sanchez finished last year as the Cy Young runner-up in the National League and has been on a bender ever since.
This will be back-to-back seasons with over 200 strikeouts and over 180 innings while pitching to a sub-2.55 ERA. The pitching talent is just so elite in the major leagues right now; you have to be almost perfect to win the Cy Young.
Although the ERA is significantly higher than Sale and Misiorowski, Sanchez is tied for 2nd with 19 Quality Starts this season, with Yoshinobu Yamamoto our next pitcher on this list. That is 19 times the Phillies didn’t have to tax the bullpen and make them come in early to help close out a game. That is almost 70% of the time that Sanchez takes the bump he is giving the Phillies 6 or more innings in a game. He has won 16 of those starts. Hard to argue against Sanchez with those numbers.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto (+6000)
2026 - 25 GS | 165 IP | 12 W | 2.67 ERA | 0.90 WHIP | 161 K | 19 QS
Last but not least is Yoshinobu Yamamoto. It is hard to stick out in a Los Angeles Dodgers uniform, and yet somehow Yamamoto has been able to do so in a positive way. As mentioned above, he is tied for 2nd in Quality Starts this season with Sanchez, and they both sit only behind Sandy Alcantara.
Yamamoto and Sanchez are also both top-10 across all of baseball in innings pitched this season. Throwing a ton of innings and being able to deliver the underlying numbers that Yamamoto has is super impressive.
The problem is Yamamoto doesn’t rack up the sexy strikeout numbers the way Misiorowski and Sale do. As of right now, he is 10th in strikeouts in the National League and 19th in all of baseball. This alone is enough to deter voters, but we have to give him his props. In three years of Major League Baseball, he is a 2x All-Star and is going to finish with back-to-back top-5 Cy Young finishes. Yamamoto is one of the best starting pitchers in all of baseball, just not the top arm in the National League this season.
The Prediction
Death. Taxes. Jacob Misiorowski.
It has been inevitable that Misiorowski would eventually win the Cy Young this year.
The arm talent, the velocity, the Pokémon collecting- he does it all and is my pick to win his first Cy Young Award in 2026!