Editor’s Note: All my graphics going forward will come directly from Stat Soldier. Go check it out by clicking here.
As always, if I feature betting lines/odds in my blog, they are coming from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Yordan Alvarez (-20000)
Why not start with the favorite in the field? Yordan Alvarez has been enjoying a massive rebound season coming back from an injury-plagued 2025. It has been such a good season for Alvarez that he could win the Triple Crown.
Alvarez is currently ranked 1st in Batting Average (.312), 2nd in Home Runs (38), and 2nd in RBI (96) among all American League qualified hitters. The numbers are just ridiculous. Batting over .300 in this day and age is a huge accomplishment. Let alone Alvarez is likely to hit over 40 home runs while being one of only six players in all of baseball to be hitting .300 at this point in the season. To put that in perspective, Yandy Diaz is the closest to Alvarez of those six hitters in the home run department, and he is sitting at 22. Alvarez is almost doubling him up.
Only 17 times in the history of baseball has a player hit for the Triple Crown. An even smaller number of players have accomplished this feat: 15 total. Only two players have done it twice, and both are Hall of Famers: Rogers Hornsby and Ted Williams.
The odds already show that Alvarez is essentially a lock to win the MVP award, but I don’t love it. The Astros are just two games above .500, and if they don’t end up making the postseason, I will have a sour taste in my mouth that an MVP is not on a winning team.
Junior Caminero (+1900)
Junior Caminero has to be considered a superstar by all at this point. He is just 23 years old and is one home run away from back-to-back 40-home-run seasons. Not to mention the first 7 bombs he had in his first 50 games, split between the 2023 and 2024 seasons.
Caminero has the Rays rolling right now. Tampa Bay is the top team in the American League and is coasting to a 3.5-game lead over the Yankees in the division. Caminero is ranked top-10 in Home Runs (39), RBI (93), OPS (.897), SLG (.530), Hits (156), and Total Bases (296) across all of MLB. Calling him incredible is an understatement.
Tampa isn’t used to paying players the big bucks, but they NEED to lock him up long-term. If it were up to me, Caminero would be the American League MVP this year.
Bobby Witt Jr. (+8000)
Might be a bad analogy, but I am going for it. Bobby Witt Jr. is the Cristopher Sanchez of American League hitters. What I mean by that is 100% meant as a compliment. If you haven’t looked recently at the National League Cy Young odds…Sanchez is at +7000, only behind Jacob Misiorowski and Chris Sale. Sanchez is about to finish with a CYA-5 finish or better this year. This is after finishing as CYA-10 in 2024 and as the runner-up in 2025. Few pitchers have had a better three-year run than Sanchez.
Now, getting back to my point on Bobby Witt Jr. is that he has had a similar story. Witt Jr. has finished inside the top-10 of MVP voting every year since 2023, including a runner-up finish in 2024. Both keep getting so close to baseball immortality, yet can’t seem to close the deal. I am in no way, shape, or form saying that Witt Jr. or Sanchez cannot win a Cy Young or MVP; it just has yet to happen.
Witt Jr. is one of the most complete ballplayers in the game and is as good as they get. He is just playing in the time of Aaron Judge. This year would have been prime time for Witt Jr. to pull it off, as Judge was sidelined for 99 days this season.
Caminero and Alvarez have just had better seasons to date. Witt Jr. will have 40 stolen bases by the end of the season to match with 20 or so home runs, but he missed some time due to injury. Might not be this year, but I’d bet a large sum of money that Bobby Witt Jr. will own an MVP trophy by the end of his career. At age 26, he is one of the best players in baseball.
Cam Schlittler (+8000)
Dean would rip me apart if I went on too long about how Cam Schlittler deserves the MVP this year, so I won’t.
Don’t get me wrong, Schlittler deserves some MVP consideration.
A crazy statistic I saw is that since earned run average (ERA) became an official statistic in 1913, no pitcher has finished a season with an ERA below 2.50 and at least 200 strikeouts after entering that season with fewer than 75.0 career innings pitched.
Not only is Schlittler in striking distance of accomplishing this feat, but so is Jacob Misiorowski. It is actually absurd to think it’s never been done before, and we are on the verge of two players doing it in the same season. Baseball is a weird sport.
Schlitter will likely win the AL Cy Young, but I don’t see him pulling off the MVP unless he goes bonkers these last few starts and Alvarez, Witt Jr., and Caminero fall off a cliff.
Dillon Dingler (+15000)
Dingler not only looks like the favorite to win the Gold Glove for the American League at the catching position, but he is also having an excellent season from the batter’s box.
If he gets hot in these last 16 games, 30 bombs are not out of the question. He will not win the MVP, but due to the ugliness of baseball that has been played in the American League this season, one could imagine he might grab an MVP vote.
Conclusion
Yordan Alvarez essentially has this thing locked up, especially if he gets the Triple Crown. Down year overall for the American League, but the top few MVP contenders have all performed exceptionally this season.
There are still several games left, and we don’t know what will happen. It would be exciting to see a couple of these guys get hot and shake things up a bit as the end of the regular season is in spitting distance.