Brayan Bello's Cutter
A Blog By Dean
As of August 16th, Brayan Bello is 9–6 with a 3.23 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 97 K, and a 49% ground-ball rate across 128.0 IP. These are career numbers for him.
Brayan Bello looks different because he is different. The Red Sox right-hander has added a real cutter, brought his four-seam fastball back into the plan, and dialed down the changeup that used to be the headline. That reshuffle has tightened the shape diversity of his arsenal, reduced predictability, and paired with steadier strike-throwing, helped unlock a cleaner run prevention line in 2025. He hasn’t turned into a strikeout machine (far from it he had 2 tonight,) but he has turned into a better bet to get six quality innings with the ball on the ground and the mistakes minimized. That’s progress.
What’s in the bag now
Bello’s sinker remains the foundation (≈35% usage) at ~95 mph with classic arm-side run. What’s new is how he’s working around it:
Four-seamer (~17%): Absent in volume for most of 2024, it’s back in real share. The four-seam lives higher, changes eye level, and gives him a vertical look he rarely showed when he was sinker/change/sweeper heavy. The net: more called strikes when hitters sit arm-side run, and just enough whiff to finish a count.
Cutter (~12%): This is the genuine addition. It’s firm (high-80s), short, and he can land it to both sides—front-door to lefties, back-foot or back-door to righties. It fills the speed/shape gap between sinker and sweeper, stealing early-count strikes and jamming barrels instead of asking the sweeper to do every piece of glove-side work.
In 2024, Bello was overly binary: sinker down/arm-side and sweeper away. In 2025 he has three distinct fastball looks (sinker in, four-seam up, cutter on the edges) that let him sequence without overexposing the same tunnel.
The sweeper (~21%) is still the breaking pitch that plays, especially to righties. Usage is down a touch from 2024 but it’s doing more selective work—chase-tooled when he’s set it up with hard stuff.
The changeup (~15%) is the loudest reduction. In 2024 it was nearly 27% of his plan; in 2025 it’s roughly half that. This is philosophy, not panic: when you can get soft contact with a cutter and steal strikes with a four-seam while still living off a plus sinker, the changeup doesn’t need to carry the platoon load by itself. It’s now a situational pitch—especially early in counts to lefties who gear up for hard in.
Usage shifts at a glance (2025 vs. 2024)
Four-seamer: ~17% (up from ~5%) → +12 points
Cutter: ~12% (up from ~0%) → +12 points
Changeup: ~15% (down from ~27%) → –12 points
Sweeper: ~21% (down from ~28%) → –7 points
Sinker: ~35% (down from ~40%) → –5 points
Results: better run prevention, modest bat-missing, cleaner contact
Run prevention: 3.23 ERA through Aug. 16. Even if you prefer estimators, the picture is still fine-but-not-elite: FIP ~4.16, xERA ~4.34, xFIP ~4.25. I am not a huge expected stats guy, so I am taking the 3.23 ERA and running to the bank.
Bat-missing/discipline: 18–19% K rate, ~9% BB rate. This is a a below league average K% paired with league-average-ish walks. He was never going to be a big strikeout guy, but lowering his walk percentage was the biggest hurdle to clear this season.
Contact quality: Average exit velo ~88 mph, hard-hit rate ~38%, barrel rate ~7%. Those are slightly better than last year and consistent with a ground-baller who limits authoritative lift.
Batted-ball mix: ~49–50% grounders (down a couple points from 2024 but still comfortably above league). A few more balls in the air are the tax you pay for throwing more four-seams/cutters and fewer bottom-of-zone changeups.
How the new mix plays by situation
vs. Righties
Plan: Sinker in, sweeper away, cutter for weak contact, occasional four-seam up.
Why it works: The cutter/sweeper pairing gives both a chase and a jam. Righties now can’t just hunt run; the glove-side hard piece keeps them honest.
vs. Lefties
Plan: More four-seam up to change the eyeline, sinker to back-door or in off, cutter front-hip, changeup when speed separation is needed.
Why it works: In 2024, it was changeup or bust. In 2025, he can avoid leaning on the changeup when it’s not there and still navigate lefties with posture changes and hard/soft toggles.
Early vs. late counts
Early: Cutter and four-seam steal strikes, sinker to get ahead without free damage.
Two strikes: Sweeper for chase, sinker front-hip for called strikes, four-seam above the belt if the whiff shape is set up.
Where Bello can still tighten it up
Four-seam shape/aim: He doesn’t need elite ride; he needs consistency at the top third. Misses that leak to the middle are the hazard when the K% isn’t bailing him out.
Left-handed damage control: With the changeup down-weighted, keeping the cutter located and the sinker from leaking arm-side middle is the bellwether. When he keeps cutters in, the entire plan clicks. has walked twice as many lefties as righties, so right now he is playing it a little to safe.
Strikeout finishing: Even a one-point bump in K% (say 18.5 → ~20%) moves the FIP needle and leaves fewer “ball in play with traffic” innings. The sweeper can get him there if he keeps it out of cookie zones and sets it up with four-seam ladders.
I have no idea if Bello is going to continue this streak he has been on. Since mid-May he has had only one bad start (last week.) Maybe Cora is right, all Bello needed to do was wake up early for his kids.
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