Brandon Lowe Remains Criminally Underrated

When Brandon Lowe is healthy, he’s one of the best pure hitters at second base in Major League Baseball

Brandon Lowe has quietly been one of the top 5 second basemen in all of Major League Baseball since his debut. When he's healthy and on the field, there’s a real argument that he’s the best pure hitter at the position next to Ketel Marte. Despite flying under the radar for most of his career, Lowe has finished top 10 in MVP voting twice and blasted 39 HR back in 2021. His overall résumé is incredibly strong, and entering 2025, he was one of just three second basemen in the Integration Era to post a 125 OPS+, 100+ HR, .800 OPS while playing 80% of his games at 2B, alongside Joe Morgan and Jose Altuve. And that 2021 season? I would argue it is just as impressive. Only five second basemen since integration have ever put up a season with 35 HR, 30 2B, and a 140 OPS+. Brandon Lowe is on that list.

Injuries have limited his consistency over the years, but when he's healthy and playing at his best, few are more productive, especially at the second base position. Let’s look at his 2025 numbers. Through 67 games and 280 plate appearances, he’s got 14 HR, 42 R, and 39 RBI with a .260/.311/.457 slash, a .334 wOBA, 119 wRC+, and 1.4 fWAR. While that might seem modest on the surface compared to the numbers I know he can put up, he’s been on an absolute tear since May 10th. Among all MLB 2B in that stretch, he ranks 1st in runs (29), tied 1st in HR (9) and RBI (21), and 2nd in ISO (.273), SLG (.594), wOBA (.413), and wRC+ (175). He also ranks 3rd in AVG (.320) and 6th in OBP (.371), and his 1.6 fWAR in that span is 2nd among qualified 2B and 12th in all of baseball.

Dig into the profile, and the advanced metrics tell the same story. His xSLG is up to .518 (86th percentile), average exit velo is 92.1 MPH (86th), with a 12.6% Barrel%, 46.8% Hard-Hit%, and 39.5% LA Sweet-Spot%, all strong signs of a hitter squaring up the ball with absolute authority, something I know as well as many other people who follow the Tampa Bay Rays. His xwOBA rolling chart since around May 20 shows a sustained spike, peaking at .412 on June 7th. Even on a year-to-year basis, he’s improved across the board: higher exit velo (89.8 — 92.1 MPH), higher xSLG (.482 — .518), and his K% is down to 25.0%, the lowest since 2022.

What’s impressive is the improvement he’s made against offspeed pitches, an area that gave him trouble. In 2024, he hit just .188 with a 0 RV against changeups. In 2025? That’s jumped to a .327 AVG, 5 RV, .618 SLG, .420 wOBA, and a .314 xBA. Those are elite improvements in my opinion. He’s also posting a career-high Ideal Contact Rate (45.8%) and IPA% (31.1%), both notably higher than in 2021 when he hit 39 HR. His swing decisions and path have clearly shifted as well, a 2.5° rise in Ideal Attack Angle%, lower Fast Swing Rate (36.0% — 29.9%), and a 1.2-inch change in intercept point. These are clear, deliberate adjustments, and they’re paying off. I think Brandon Lowe can deliver another 30+ HR season in 2025 as long as he stays healthy, and he should be an All-Star this season with his recent surge over the last month!