Atlanta Braves Post-Santa Christmas list
What the Braves should do post Christmas
The 2024 Atlanta Braves must have been on Santa's naughty list, with the constant injuries, the decline in production from some key players, and some former farm hands walking for “greener grass”. The Braves had a few new shiny toys this year with the emergence of Spencer Schwellenbach, Reynaldo Lopez signing looking like a steal, Jarred Kelenic carrying the team for a month and basically playing the role of 2 players, and Michael Harris II carrying the team in late August/September. Braves fans, myself included, are furious about this offseason because of the Braves clearing almost 40 MM, and saying payroll is going up, but we have yet to see any moves. The Braves have so few holes to fill and were mad that they haven’t filled the few spots that needed to be upgraded. Atlanta missed out on Willy Adames, Teoscar Hernández, (resigning) Max Fried, and many others who would have been great fits for this club. I made an article similar to this after the World Series and now with some of the big names off the board, here are some (hopefully realistic) additions the Braves can make to improve their team heading into 2025.
Rotation: A Proven Vet
All Braves fans had an understanding going into 2024 that it would be the potential last years of two former rotation anchors in Max Fried and Charlie Morton. Between both of them in 2024, they combined for a sub 4.10 ERA, 59 starts, a 4.5 fWAR, to go along with 339.2 IP. That is a lot of ground to make up especially for any rotation (except the Dodgers) and the Braves as of now, seem to be high on the pitching depth/prospects that they have. The Braves will finally have a health Ian Anderson, A.J. Smith-Shawver, Hurston Waldrep, Bryce Elder (former all-star), Dylan Dodd, Allan Winans, and Grant Holmes.
The Braves rotation heading into Spring Training:
Sale
Schwellenbach
Reynaldo López
Ian Anderson
Grant Holmes (?)
A.J. Smith-Shawver/Hurston Waldrep/ Bryce Elder (?)
As of now, in my mind this is how the rotation looks before Jan 1. The Braves need to make a move for a proven vet who can eat innings, and that’s why I see them re-signing Charlie Morton. Since 2021, Charlie has compiled 686.1 IP, a sub 4 ERA, a 110 ERA+, 1.25 WHIP, and a 3.92 FIP. Charlie has been an absolute workhorse and would (once again) fit in this rotation. Charlie is past the point where he is going to be a #3 or even #4 but Charlie slides into that 5 spot well with no pressure, where he can go out and help the team. Charlie was making 20 MM AAV the past 2 years. I don’t see that being the case, but if the Braves don’t make any other moves this off season, a Charlie Morton deal for around 10-12 MM would be well worth the money.
Jose Quintana
Another guy I like is Jose Quintana, another lefty to add after losing Max Fried. Quintana posted 170.1IP, a 3.75 ERA, a 105 ERA+, which is pretty much identical to what Charlie Morton did in 2024. Quintana only made 13 MM AAV in 2024, putting him in the same potential “veteran” price pool. Quintana is also 10th in all of baseball in ground ball% and gives up a lot of soft contact. I see Atlanta giving Ian Anderson a shot to make to rotation out of spring as he doesn’t have any options left and I believe that the front office still likes his stuff and he’s only 26 years old. I think the Braves should let Anderson prove that this is his spot to lose.
I think if the Braves can sign one of Morton or Quintana I think they will be just fine, the Braves will have Spencer Strider coming back, and would only have to have 1-2 potential “revolving door” spots in the rotation as opposed to two. I see the Braves potentially moving on from one of Allan Winans or Dylan Dodd, and keeping Waldrep in AAA to get some more seasoning. A.J. Smith-Shawver also only has 1 more option.
Rotation after Strider comes back:
Note: (Strider will not immediently slide into the rotation once he is eligible, this isn’t a rankings)
Sale
Schwellenbach
López
Strider
Anderson
Holmes/Waldrep/ AJSS
Honorable Mentions:
Some honorable mentions I think would do good, for the right role and the right price.
Jack Flaherty
I think Jack Flaherty would be an amazing fit in this rotation, coming off a World Series win with the Dodgers, where his stats weren’t the greatest, Flaherty is still a bulldog having almost 200 K’s in only 162 IP. Flaherty put up 3.2 fWar, with a 3.48 FIP and 1.07 WHIP. Flaherty was on a one year prove it deal last year and after the season he put up, I see him getting a payday, and I don’t see the Braves paying that price.
Kyle Gibson
I believe Kyle Gibson will do really good in Atlanta. Gibson was tied with none other than Chris Sale for the 18th highest ground ball% in all of baseball. Gibson also gives up a lot of soft contact, standing right outside the top 20 (22) for the highest soft contact%. The Braves have one of the best infield defenses and with Gibsons ability to throw the ground ball would work perfectly in 2025.
Michael Lorenzen
Michael Lorenzen could be a very good “buy low” move for Atlanta. Lorenzen posted 130.1 IP, .07 fWAR, 1.24 WHIP, but a 4.89 FIP. Lorenzen's agent came out and proposed the idea that Lorenzen could be a potential 2-way-player candidate because of the pitcher limit for roster construction. Michael has a 7 pitch mix, and he was 97th in off speed run value according to baseball savant. With the pitch mix, I think Atlanta could tap into something with Lorenzen even if he’s a swing man or in the running for the 6th man.
Jordan Montgomery
Corbin Burnes signing with Arizona, I believe, is their writing on the wall for Jordan Montgomery. The Arizonas front office and Montgomery had some public frustrations towards each other last year and after a late signing, combined with an abysmal season, and a 23.75 AAV and one year remaining on his contract I think it only makes sense Atlanta tries to push for Monty. It would be like the trade for Chris Sale last year, and I don’t see Atlanta taking on that salary unless Arizona gives him to Atlanta for next to nothing. Montgomery would add another lefty to Atlantas rotation, has a great postseason pedigree, and is only a 1 year commitment all the more reason I think it would be worth it.
Adding Depth:Platoon/Bench
Jarred Kelenic had disappointment to the expectations of Braves fans, but I’m not ready to give up on him. Kelenic is still 25 and has all the tools in the world. He took over center field and the leadoff spot when Michael Harris went down and he did about as good as you can when you're thrusted into that roll. Also, we now know that the Braves are probably going to stick to developing their Shortstops as they seem to still be very high on Orlando Arcia, which was another hole Braves fans wanted to see filled this offseason. I think Atlanta needs to get one of Ramón Laureano, Enrique ' “Kiké” Hernández, Mark Canha, Dylan Carlson. The Braves already have their infield locked up and have added 2 other backup IF, not to mention Nacho Alvarez (Braves #4 ranked prospect). The Braves already have Luke Williams, Eli White, and Carlos D Rodriguez, and added Bryan De La Cruz on a split contract which is a really under the radar move. I believe there is something to be tapped into there. I would like to see the Braves add Kiké as the sole fact of the clubhouse presents. He will not produce much, but like we saw with Guillermo Heredia, a guy who is big in the clubhouse can mean a lot to the team. Laureano would come back to where he was last year and seemed to produce once he got regular at bats, not to mention his arm value and arm strength were in the 100th and 89th percentile, respectively. Mark Cahna is coming off a year where he was in the 80th and higher percentile in squared-up%, Chase%, and BB%. Dylan Carlson had an abysmal 2024 campaign but is a switch hitter, who is a former top prospect. Atlanta just hired a new hitting coach and might be a great buy low/ minor league contract guy. Ronald Acuña will be back in 2025, but we do not know to what degree. I think the Braves will also give him more rest/off days even than in 2022. That is why I think Atlanta needs to pick up at least 1 more platoon guy to pair with Kelenic and Acuña.
Honorable Mention: Bullpen
I think the Braves will make a move to add another bullpen piece, but I don’t think it is the most dire need. The Braves will lose one of their back-end, high leverage guys in Joe Jiménez because of knee surgery, but the Braves have Daysbel Hernández, who I believe can slide into that 7th-8th inning role. Hernández didn’t qualify for much on Baseball Savant, but he was in the 94th percentile on fastball veto, while posting a 2.50 ERA, a 35.1 K%, a 2.11 FIP, and.5WAR in 16 games and 18 IP, respectively. The Braves already have one of the best bullpens with Raisel Iglesias (1.6 fWAR), Dylan Lee (.8), Pierce Johnson (.5), Aaron Bummer (1.1), and new guys like Rolddy Munoz, Angel Perdomo, Conner Gillispie. I think we can also see AJ Smith-Shawver, Hurston Waldrep, and Grant Holmes make appearances in the pen.
In conclusion, I think the Braves can make some very cost effective signings and they are still a World Series contender. The Braves have locked up their core for the foreseeable future but have some holes in their roster. The Braves are trying to compete with the Phillies, Dodgers, and many other national league powerhouse teams and need to fill these holes before most of the “B tier” players are gone and the “bargain bin” shopping narrative becomes even more of a reality.