Atlanta Braves Offseason Prediction
A Blog By Jeb
With the conclusion of the 2024 World Series and Alex Anthopoulos already heating up the stove this winter, here are my predictions/wishlist of what the Atlanta Braves need to do this offseason to regain their crown as NL East Champs and to make a deeper run in the postseason.
2024 was a tough year for Braves fans. With the Braves being out of the postseason in the blink of an eye, I have had some time to process the season and recoup my mental stability. The Braves dealt with injuries to every star on the roster besides today's "Ironman,” Matt Olson and Marcell Ozuna. Ronald Acuña Jr., Ozzie Albies, Max Fried, Austin Riley, Michael Harris II, Sean Murphy, and Spencer Strider all missed significant time on the IL this season, and the Braves could never seem to “fire on all cylinders." The only steady heartbeat for the Braves was Chris Sale, who won the NL pitching triple crown and will presumably win the CY Young, and Marcell Ozuna, who seemed to stay steady the entire season. The Braves finished the year 89-73, a far disappointment to the 104-58 in the previous season (while also being the best offense in MLB history statistically). Atlanta lost their top seat at the table for the first time since 2018 after the Phillies dethroned them this year, going 95-67. In this article, I will go over how the Braves should handle the offseason, in my opinion, and head into the 2025 season.
Honorable Mentions:
Bo Bichette
Although I would love to see Alex go out and make another big splash, I don’t quite see this as the best fit. Toronto was “must watch” at the deadline to see if they were keeping Vlad Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette or if they were going to sell them off and try to salvage a terribly ranked system (24 according to MLB.com on August 15). Toronto opted to keep both stars and finished dead last in the AL East, a real kick in the butt after the Shohei saga in the offseason. Toronto, having signed Bichette to a 3-year Arb extension, would have Bichette till the end of the ‘25 season, which would not be the smartest move as they would want some combination including one of Nacho Alvarez (Atlantas top SS prospect, 4th in system), Drake Baldwin (top catching prospect, 5th in system), or AJ Smith-Shawver (top pitching prospect who has seen a MLB mound). I don’t see AA letting go of any of these except Alvarez; only if you’re going to get a SS there is no reason to stop-gap another one. Vaughn Grissom was in the same boat in 2022-2023. Another reason is he is a free agent at the end of the year. Although AA is notorious for giving out long-term, team-friendly deals, Bo is going to want to test the market as he should.
Wish List:
Zach Neto
Zach Neto is the polar opposite of Orlando Arcia; Neto is ranked in the 86th percentile for Batting run value (Arcia 1st, yes, first percentile), and his K% is lower; Barrel%, xSLUG, Hard-Hit%Sprint speed, and AVG exit velocity are all higher, just to name a few. However, Arcia is in the 86th percentile for OAA, which the Braves value more than his bat. Zach Neto, I believe with the help from Tim Hyers, can unlock something in Neto (and potentially Kelenic), and the defense would have to improve tremendously. Neto is going into his 3rd MLB season, so he has plenty of years remaining on his contract and is a young, exciting player, but I don’t see the Angels trading a young and talented player like Neto. The Braves and Angels have already been in contact this year (Atlanta sent Jorge Soles to them for Griffin Canning), and the Braves acquired Rasiel Iglasias from them in 2022, so both GMs are familiar with one another.
Juan Soto
I have to put this just because one of the best generational talents should be on EVERY teams wish list.
Ha-Seong Kim
Ha-Seong Kim was in the 80 percentile or higher in Chase%, Whiff%, K%, BB%, and OAA. This move would be a great move for a team that pretty much lives and dies by the long ball. I think with the hiring of Hyers, it can help the Braves and their approaches, and Kim fits his exact mold. Kim is an elite defender at SS and wouldn't cost the Braves as much as a Bichette or Adames would. I just don’t love the fact he is going into his age 30 season (we saw what the Braves did with Dansby). Defense tends to decline quickly with age, and Kim has gone from the 95th percentile in OAA to the 85th and only played in 121 games due to injury. Kim would be the best “pivot” plan in my opinion.
Willy Adames
Willy Adames has been one of the best SS in the league the past 3 years, and is going to get PAID this offseason. From 2022-2024, Adames has mashed 87 Hrs, 290 RBI, has a 108 OPS+ and a OPS of .757. Adames was also in the 92 percentile in Batting Run Value, and 68th in OAA, so basically, he fills both needs at short. Adames is 29 (same age as Kim). I know Kim and Adames are the same age, but I personally believe Adames better suits the lineup than Kim. Adames also played in 161 games this season. Not much more to say, besides, he’s going to be on a lot of team's radars.
Kike Hernández
Hernandez isn’t going to be an everyday player, but can platoon in the OF until Acuña gets back. Kike isn’t a guy who moves the needle but the Braves need a clubhouse guy who plays with his hair on fire. Atlanta has had a problem with being too formal, and not having any clubhouse guy to fire the team up. Atlanta hasn’t had that “screw you” and that first class team plane you flew in on since Joc in 2021, and i’m still made they let him walk. Atlanta needs someone with flair and is going to fire the team up, and has been there before.
Step 1: Address the elephant in the room; Add a SS
As I mentioned above, Willy Adames is going to be a hot commady, but I do believe there is a way the Braves can land him. The Dodgers have just won the World Series, platooning Tommy Edman and Miguel Rojas at SS, and are one of the teams publicly interested in Adames. I believe the Dodgers are going to be in the Juan Soto saga and if the Braves play their cards right, they can land Adames (Obviously, you’d rather have Soto, but I don’t see the Braves going that route). If Atlanta lands Adames, LA will have to either stick with Edman as their primary SS or have to pivot to Kim, or the trade route. A Willy Adames contract for Atlanta looks something along the lines of 130/6 (21 ish million a year). This is definitely not going to be the highest bid, but it’s the bid I foresee the Braves giving Adames. I also don’t see LA going after both Soto AND Adames, especially with Roki Sasaki potentially being posted.
If a deal can’t be reached for Adames, Atlanta can pivot to Kim and strengthen up their middle IF defense even more. Either Kim or Adames would no doubt be a upgrade over Arcia. If Atlanta was to sign either, Arcia can slide onto the bench and be the Braves platoon guy.
Step 2: Sure up the bench
If I’m Atlanta, I am definitely bringing Whit and Ramon Laureano back. Although Whit is a much better everyday player than platoon, he’s entering his age 36 season; he's from NC and grew up a Braves fan. His contributions should not go unnoticed, and if he is willing to come back and platoon, I don’t see a reason why not to bring him back. I think Snit should start giving his everyday guys a couple more days off throughout the season, especially in light of Acuña tearing his ACL twice in 3 years, which might benefit the longevity of everyone in the clubhouse. Ramon Laureano was not received with open arms by Braves fans when he first arrived on the scene. After overrunning many fly balls and not hitting his first couple weeks, Braves fans were getting tired of him until it just clicked. Laureano ended 2024 playing 67 games with Atlanta, slashing .297/.327/.505 with a .832 OPS and 10 HRS. I think he will be a great platoon option with Kelenic, and can hold down the OF until Ronalds return. Orlando Arcia can also serve as a defensive “specialist” on the bench and can play 3B, SS, and 2B which he can be very valuable that way.
Here is my predictions for the Braves bench
Merrifield
Laureano/Kelenic
Luke Williams /Eli White
Arcia
TDA/Murphy
The Braves are known for playing their stars everyday and that bench may not have the biggest names, but a lot of platoon guys who can play multiple positions and can be valuable weapons could serve them well in 2025.
Step 3: Figure out the rotation
With the emergence of Spencer Schwellenbach, a historic season by Chris Sale, and Charlie Morton being his usual “Chad or Charlie innings eater," Atlanta has the starting pitching depth, but the depth was also facing injury this season. Atlanta called up Hurston Waldrep and AJSS, and both went down with injuries, missing significant time. First, you have to sign Max Fried. Max has been the ace of this staff ever since he emerged after the Soroka injury in 2020 and has been one of, if not the best, LHP in the game since 2021. Atlanta and Max have both shown public interest in a contract, but negotiations have not really been public, or even had. Max Fried was second in CY Young voting in 2022 and has been a workhorse in his time here. If Max Fried does not return, it will be a big blow to this rotation. Second, take a look at your depth and see how much they can provide to the team. Ian Anderson will be back for his first spring training since 2022, and Bryce Elder will obviously contractually be required to be in the spring training facility. Waldrep and AJSS both are very young, with high upside pitchers, but will benefit from some seasoning. I would love to see Atlanta bring back Charlie if he decides to come back and maybe a Walker Buehler, who is a free agent. Buehler had a frustrating second half of the 2024 season for his standards. Although he closed out the World Series, Buehler posted a 5.38 ERA, a 1-6 record in 16 games started. His 72 ERA+ is the lowest since his cup of coffee in 2017. I think Buehler will be a hot name this offseason, as many teams will try to sign him to a 1-year prove it deal and try to fix him, and he might bet on himself (a Jack Flaherty situation). I think Rick Kranitz can help Buehler find his footing and sure up this rotation to compete with the Dodgers (potentially Glasnow, Yamamoto, Ohtani, Kershaw, Stone, May, just to name a few). The Dodgers had a whole rotation on the IL this season, and this is a reason I see them letting Buehler walk, get it, and why I don’t see them in the bid for Max Fried this offseason. Trevor Williams might be another good addition for Atlanta; coming off a year where he only made 13 starts, he made the most of them with 59 K in 66.2 innings. I don’t see the Braves ponying up the money for a Corbin Burnes, especially if they won’t for Max Fried. I find it frustrating that the Braves made Aaron Nola an offer of 6/162 (27 AAV) just last offseason, and I don’t see them making Max an offer anywhere near that. I think AA will have his work cut out for him this offseason because Max is going to want fair market value, and with Blake Snell opting out, Snell could set the market for Fried.
A dream rotation for 2025
Sale
Fried
Lopez
Schwellenbach
Morton
Buehler/Anderson/Williams/Canning
Strider (When he returns)
A 2025 Look ahead
In conclusion, the Braves need to make only a couple moves, but a couple BIG moves. Bringing back Whit and giving Laureano an Arb deal are two of the smaller deals that can be done. Atlanta is not one to go over the luxury tax, as we all know how much they love their draft picks, but it has been 3 years straight of getting smacked in the mouth, and enough is enough. The core is locked up, and Atlanta has some money coming off the books. It's time to put your foot on the gas and say enough is enough. Atlanta needs to pony up, go get Willy Adames to make the lineup even deeper, and make sure Max Fried doesn’t even consider another contract. The Braves are one of the most profitable teams, ranking in the top 10 in the NL for 8 years and the top 5 for 5 of these years. The Dodgers went out and spent a billion dollars on one of the best talents in the game in Ohtani and a rising star in Yamamoto. As of now, when healthy, I take the Braves lineup over the Dodgers. I think the Braves are just a hair follicle deeper, but I think LA has the better rotation. Between the first four, the Dodgers have the edge, but length-wise, I take Atlanta. Atlanta already has one of the best pullpens in baseball, so I don’t see much work needing to be done there. The Braves, I predict, will be one of the busier offseasons, I think, and I’m looking forward to the 2025 season.