Arroyo x Montes: Mariners Masterpiece.
The Seattle Mariners have a grand total of nine prospects in the MLB Top 100 Prospects, and both Michael Arroyo and Lazaro Montes are displaying characteristics only seen in elite players.
International Socuting Successes
Both Michael Arroyo and Lazaro Montes were signed in a single season, and this could go down as one of the best International Free Agency signings a team has ever done. Montes was a Top 10 prospect in his class, which came as no surprise: Montes was not just a 6’5”, 210-pound teenager, he was a 6’5”, 210-pound teenager from Cuba, mentored by the same hitting instructor as Yordan Alvarez.
Michael Arroyo’s signing required more in-depth scouting. He wassn’t ranked in the Top 40 prospects of his class, and was described as ‘known more for his hitting ability than power potential, but there’s no denying his elite skills and feel for hitting.’ The Mariners saw more in Arroyo than other, and eventually committed 1.375 million dollars to Arroyo, which was considered a potential overpay for a prospect like him.
Fast-forward three years in time, and both Arroyo and Montes are two of the most prolific power-hitters in the minor leagues.
Lazaro Montes - The Cuban Conundrum
Scouting grades: Hit: 45 I Power: 70 I Run: 30 I Arm: 50 I Field: 45 I Overall: 50
Montes made his professional debut in 2023 after absolutely crushing both the Dominican Summer League and Complex League levels, and instantly showed why he’s one of the most hyped power-hitting prospects in baseball. He played 33 games at Single-A to a .321/.429/.565 slash line and hit 7 home runs as an 18-year old. He registered EV’s north of 110 MPH, showed impessive power and managed the strikezone well.
Entering 2024, Montes was looking to show that 33-game run in 2023 wasn’t a fluke. His first 65 games at Single-A were fantastic (.309/.411/.527, 13 HR’s) and he looked ready to make the next step. He was promoted to High-A for the second half of the season, and clearly showed there was work to be done: He played 51 games to a .260/.378/.427 slash line and hit eight home runs in 51 games. Concerning was the 10.5% increase in K% and 16% SwStr%. Montes was quickly sliding to the wrong side of the power-hitter spectrum - the side where raw power becomes useless if you can’t get your bat to the ball consistently.
Entering 2025, questions were asked about Montes. He was, obviously, still extremely young, and has a profile in which swing-and-miss is a given, not an option. The young slugger flew up prospect lists, but there were, rightfully so, still questions about the bat. The combination of poor speed, below-average defense and a strong arm put extra pressure on his bat, with little value coming from elsewhere.
So far, those questions remain… unanswered. Montes started the season at A+, playing 67 games to a .268/.387/.572 slash line, and led his league with 18 home runs. His K% decreased from 29.6% to 27.6%, but the 15.3% SwStr% and 67.1% Contact% remained an apparent red flag. The big difference compared to 2024 is the ridiculous output of in-game power, which eventually earned him a well-deserved promotion to Double-A. In 12 games there, Montes is playing to a .270/.392/.577 slash line and already hit three home runs. However, the (limited) metrics we have access to got worse. His 61.8% Contact% and 17% SwStr% are indicators of future struggles despite the early success, and it will be interesting to see how the 20-year old handles the rest of the season.
The comparisons with Yordan Alvarez make sense to some degree. But the bat-to-ball skills are vastly different. Yordan never ran a SwStr% above 9% and Contact% below 77.5% in his entire minor-league career. Montes hasn’t been near those numbers in his young career.
Either way, Montes is only 20 years old, and is one of the best power-hitting prospects in baseball. Yordan Alvarez’s ability might be a tough ceiling to reach, but the Cuban slugger has 35+ HR potential if the bat keeps up.
Michael Arroyo: Keep going until you beat the door down.
Scouting grades: Hit: 60 I Power: 50 I Run: 50 I Arm: 40 I Field: 35 I Overall: 55*
Michael Arroyo came into the game as an underdog. One of many undersized middle infielders with a solid hit tool. And when Arroyo made his debut at Single-A in 2023, he didn’t really impress. He played 57 games to a .234/.389/.373 slash line, with only two home runs and five stolen bases. He showed off a good feel for the strikezone, but that was really it.
Heading into 2024, Arroyo was mentioned in various trade rumours, and he was the ninth overall prospect in the Seattle Mariners organization. But he bleweveryone away. he played 120 games, evenly split between Single-and-High-A to a .285/.400/.509 slash line, hit 23 home runs and stole 18 bases at 19 years old. Despite this, Arroyo remained criminally undervalued among evaluators. The 5’10”, 160-pounds infielder didn’t have the ‘projectability’ going for him in evaluations, which resulted in rankings which I considered criminally low at the time. Arroyo’s 23% K%, 12.3% BB%, 76.2% Contact% and 11.5% SwStr% were all extremely promising signs that this breakout wasn’t a fluke.
And 2025 is showing why it wasn’t.
Arroyo started the season at High-A, and played 65 games there to a .269/.422/.512 slash line, with 15 home runs and three stolen bases. There were calls for Arroyo to start the season at Double-A, but this High-A stint clearly helped him: He decreased his K% from 25.9% to 21.2%, increased his BB% from 11.7% to 12.7% and decreased his SwStr% by 1%. A decision that helped him develop more as a player, and one that might pay off in the long run. Arroyo’s 15 home runs put him 2nd in his league behind… Lazaro Montes.
His strong High-A run resulted in a promotion, and through his first nine games, Arroyo has a .382/.462/.618 slash line with a single home run and single stolen base. The sample size is small, and the .387 BABIP is high. But the initial metrics are promising - A 14.6% BB%, 7.3% K%, 5.2% SwStr% and 88.8% Contact% are all fantastic. Let’s be clear, these are not sustainable and some regression to hte mean is likely to happen. But it shows his bat is legit, and it’s what his profile revolved around. An average runner with limited range and fringy arm, it’s likely the former shortstop sticks at second base, where he will be average at best on the other side of th eball.
Slowly but surely, he’s climbing up rankings, entering the Top 100 is most publications. But it’s not enough. All underlying metrics point towards an infielder with 20-home run, potentially 30 home-run potential with a well above-average hit tool and strikezone understanding. Arroyo will be 20 years old for the remainder of the season, and is showing promising developmental progress across his entire profile.
Arroyo is quite literally beating the door down towards elite prospect status.
What the future holds
Both Michael Arroyo and Lazaro Montes could prove to be one of the biggest success stories of the Seattle Mariners. Both will require further developmental support to iron out some of their weakest points while improving their best tools. Although Montes has the power to be a potential superstar, the future looks less bright for him than it does for Arroyo, who has a unique profile at second base, and with room to develop the defensive side of his game.
Thank you for reading.
* All scouting grades are mine.