An Optimistic View On The Braves' Final Month Of The Season
Are the Braves cooked? Not so fast....
As the final month of the regular season draws near, let’s take a look at the Atlanta Braves who, prior to tonight’s series opener against the Twins, are 6 games back of the Phillies in the NL East and are currently the 3rd Wild Card team behind the DBacks and Padres.
Every team in baseball deals with injuries throughout the season of course, but this season for Atlanta has been particularly….odd. Or should I say, cursed? It’s well-known that the Braves have been hit hard by injuries so I won’t bore you with the rehash of all the players they’re missing because as a Braves fan myself, it’s been exhausting. Last year they were hitting bombs left and right and they just seemed unstoppable. This season? Not the case.
FanGraphs currently give the Braves a 79.9% at making the playoffs. Even with all the injuries, stretches of a lack of offense, etc, I’d say that’s pretty darn good (honestly a higher % than I thought they’d have before I looked it up). FanGraphs also has them projected to win 88 games. Not as dominant as the 100+ win teams the past couple seasons, but fun note here: do you remember their win total for the 2021 season when they went on to win the World Series? 88 wins. *Cue Kevin Garnett’s “anything is possible!”*
Atlanta’s remaining games vs teams with a winning/losing record (as of 8/26):
Games vs teams above .500: 17
Games vs teams below .500: 15
3 of those games vs .500 or better teams is against the Mets in the final week of the season, and they’re only 5 games above the .500 mark. So by then, who knows where the Mets may be. Over the next week the Braves play 3 in Minnesota and then 4 in Philadelphia, knocking out their toughest week of games right off the bat. After that it’s not smooth sailing, but it does get “easier”. After the Phillies the Braves have series vs the Rockies, Blue Jays, 1 make up game vs the Reds, 2 games vs the Nationals, the Dodgers, again with the Reds, the Marlins, and then the Mets and Royals to finish the regular season. There’s still meaningful games in there to keep them honest and test them, which I do like instead of just playing a weak schedule leading into playoff time. However, they gotta make these next few weeks count because the Mets and Royals could play spoiler in those last 6 games of the season, especially if Atlanta is still a handful of games back of the Phillies or borderline Wild Card by that time. Ozzie Albies is believed to have a possible return by mid-September, but after a wrist fracture, who knows what kind of production you may (or may not) get since his last bit of MLB action would have been about two months prior (July 21).
The opportunity is there, and I’m about ready to put the whole team in bubble wrap to make sure everyone makes it through the season. Chris Sale and Reynaldo Lopez’s performances have been godsends, Max Fried’s got some games under his belt after missing some time so hopefully he can get more locked in again, Schwellenbach has been a pleasant surprise, and Charlie Morton’s been hanging in there eating innings for the pitching staff. Also, the Braves have one of MLB’s best bullpens. Consistent offense will be key here; can’t have a 8-run outburst then go stale for the next handful of games struggling to score a run or two. I’ve said it before, but other guys will need to step up here because you can’t rely on Marcell Ozuna to carry this offense (shoutout to “Razor” Ramon Laureano who’s stepped in and has played very well!).
I’ve always been more cautiously optimistic; we’ll need some things to fall into place during the final month, but it could be muuuuuch worse. It’s easy (and I suppose trendy) for fans to be all doom and gloom, but the Braves are still right there in the playoff picture. Even with this weird injury-riddled season we’ve had, the Braves are still just 6 back of Philly and currently hold a WC spot. In the wise words of Rube Baker from Major League II: “When a man's lights are about to go out, the fat lady can't sing if it's not over!”
Who knows what could happen over the next 5 weeks….but I still believe in this team.