Alex Bregman Is Getting Greedy
A Blog By Dean
Editors Note: If you have been following along, you would know that Brett has been working on a blog about managers since October 3rd. Every week, he has said, “I am posting my managers’s piece this week.” We are now 67 days into this. I don't know if he has even written one word on this blog. However, it has not become the most anticipated post in the history of The Skippers View. It might make or break this company. I have been told that TOMORROW is the day this blog goes out. We will see.
Last week, Alex Bregman was offered a six-year $156 million deal from the Houston Astros. This would be around $26 million a year. This is a very fair deal based on his last four years. Currently, one bWAR is worth around $6.7 million. Over the previous four seasons, Bregman has been offering 3.9 bWAR. Here is some simple math…
3.9 x 6.7 =26.13
So, this contract is pretty much dead on based on his based recent production. Not to mention, Bregman had a sharp decline this year in a number of categories. He actually declined in NINETEEN categories from his 2023 season. This after turning 30 years old which has always been the age that declines typically begin.
Bregman had 9 career lows in 2024 (excluding 2016, 2020, and 2021). Those seasons he played under 100 games. The categories in which he reached career lows are as follows:
Runs (R)
Walks (BB)
On-Base Percentage (OBP)
On-Base Plus Slugging (OPS)
OPS+
Revised On-Base Average (rOBA)
Rbat+
Hit By Pitch (HBP)
You can argue that he just had his worst season of his career and it turning around and asking for a contract worth over $200 million.
So, what am I getting at you may ask? Well, the Red Sox are reportedly in on Bregman and I immediately began to have flashbacks of the Trevor Story deal from a few years ago.
Early on in The Skippers View history, I wrote a blog detailing why the Red Sox should stay clear of Trevor Story and not give into the pressure from fans and players. They caved, and I wrote a follow up about how I hoped Story would succeed, but there were major red flags. Unfortunately, I have been correct thus far.
The same applies to Alex Bregman. I understand that he won a Gold Glove this season whereas Devers had a -1.0 dWAR. I understand he has hit well at Fenway Park. I understand the Front Office wants to show the fans that they care about the short term and want to win… But this isn’t it. This is an assumption, but I imagine he wants 7-years $30 million a year. That would be the third largest contract in Red Sox history.
I am going to deep dive more on what I believe the Sox should do in a blog later this week, but as a tease I will say a trade for Arenado, and or a trade for Tucker are a lot more appealing.
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