AL Wildcard Thoughts
When the AL Wildcard matchups were finalized, I was initially excited to see the lines, mostly to see the value in Kansas City and Detroit. I was kind of disappointed to see the lack of value. +154 for DET and +144 for KC (FanDuel). However, I still think the favorites don’t deserve the -170 / -180 range price tag.
I have had a pretty profitable history of betting Series lines the past few seasons. They are mostly underdogs, with a few obvious favorites. But let’s dive in.
Starting in Baltimore:
Game 1 Starters will be Burnes vs Ragans. I’ll be like a pig in crap watching this game. Game 2 will likely be Eflin vs Lugo. I don’t think Game 3 matters for Baltimore. They are missing one of their biggest weapons in Grayson Rodriguez, and if the Royals win either of the first two games, they are in trouble. They will have to put their season in the hands of Dean Kremer, Albert Suarez, or rookie lefty, Cade Povich.
Kansas City leads the league in OAA with 35, and Baltimore is 21st with -9 (baseball savant). Kansas City has also turned their bullpen around and has a 2.95 ERA the last month, with a 2.99 SIERA to back it up. Baltimore has DFA’d Kimbrel since but has a 5.50 ERA, with a 3.64 SIERA the last month (Fangraphs). The significant part about handicapping these wildcard series is that you can use road and home stats for the teams since all three games will played at the higher seed’s park. Kansas City is obviously better at home than on the road, but they will be facing two rights and potentially another in Game 3, and they have a 114 wRC+ vs RHP on the road in July/August/September (Fangraphs). Baltimore for Game 1 will see a Lefty in Ragans, and in those same months, have a 79 wRC+ at Home vs LHP. They are, however, much better vs RHP and have a 115 wRC+, and will be seeing two rightys in Games 2 and 3.
The biggest variable that will come in the next 24 hours is Vinnie Pasquantino. There was an article on the MLB Trade Rumors page that he may return for the Wildcard series from his broken thumb two weeks ahead of the anticipated schedule. Vinnie had a .315 OBP with 97 RBI’s in 131 games this season. There has been a gaping hole without him.
Despite what the stats say, I do think that Baltimore has a better and deeper lineup than Kansas City. If the Royals hitters outside of Salvy and Witt don’t punish pitchers, they will have a hard time getting runs across the plate.
When I am torn on a playoff series, I find the better price and click it. With that being said, I will have:
Royals to win the series +144 to win 1u on FanDuel
Royals Game 1 Moneyline +132 to win .25u on FanDuel.
Getting into Detroit at Houston, I’m not using too many numbers for analysis. I’m using a revenge narrative. For AJ Hinch. A scapegoat for the Astros scandal. Revenge marinating for almost 7 years.
Like Kansas City, the Detroit defense has an advantage over Houston, and the bullpen, via ERA, is better. Not in SIERA, however. But expected statistics align with good or bad defense. So, I don’t expect Detroit to regress too much. But I do expect Houston’s pen to be better than they were. They always are in October. I do expect Houston to be better in most other facets. They always are. Detroit needs magic to win this series. They also required magic to overcome a project with a 0.2% chance of getting into the dance.
I’ve lost some good money betting against the Astros in the playoffs for years now. I’m fading them again. I will be betting:
Tigers to win the series +154 to win 1u.
Tigers ML +120 (.25u) on FanDuel, and Under 6 +105 (.25u) on MGM for Game 1.
If the Tigers win Game 1, it will be because of their pitching, not because of any offensive eruption. Tarik Skubal was my bet to win the AL Cy Young, so hopefully, he cashes out for me one more time this year!
Regardless of bets, I’m absolutely thrilled that it’s playoff time, and I look forward to enjoying these series between these clubs.