A Non Juan Soto Blog
A Blog By Dean
BRETT MANAGER BLOG DAY COUNT: 60
I didn’t want to do this, but I have to. Brett has now been working on his “Top 10 Manager” blog for 60 days. I have heard rumors that this will be one of the greatest pieces of sports writing in history. I haven’t seen it, but I have to imagine all that is left is dotting the I’s and crossing the T’s. Looking forward to seeing it tomorrow.
This past weekend, I was consumed by refreshing X and checking to see if Juan Soto had signed. It was all I knew how to do. Apparently, it was also all everyone else knew how to do, as the only things you would see when refreshing were posts about Soto.
My feelings have not changed, and I still believe he will go to Boston. If the reports about the Yankees not going over $600 million are true, then it is a race between the Mets and Boston. As I have said from the beginning, Soto and Boras are looking for a number to be hit. Once that number is hit, it becomes a conversation about team structure and potential future success. Right now, that favors the Red Sox based on financial flexibility, youth, and superstar duo (Devers.)
The last thing I will say on the matter is that I think it will be done by Saturday. This should not come as a surprise, as the Winter Meetings start on December 9th. Those without short-term memory loss will recall Ohtani signing before the meetings beginning last year. Boras, who is representing many top free agents this year, would want to get this deal done before the 9th so that the focus can turn to the Pete Alonso and Bregman of the world.
Alright, speaking of contracts, our good friend Overdue Sports sent me an article this morning about the worst current contracts in the MLB. I thought the article was garbage, so I will not post it. However, I will let you know that he had Mike Trout at #1. Regardless of your feelings on Trout, he is still a great player on the field. Yes, I know he is not on the field very much. But there are players who, even 100% healthy, have shown they can no longer perform. Plus, their contracts have become roadblocks to teams pursuing free agents. So, I decided to make my own Top 10 Bad MLB Contracts.
Editors Note: This is almost half bad current contracts and half contracts that, in two years, I predict will be viewed poorly. I am taking into account the team that these players are on. For example, while Kris Bryant has averaged -0.4 bWAR over his contract, the Rockies are terrible and have been terrible. His contract has not impeded them from signing someone great that would change the teams direction. However, when you look at someone like Xander Bogaerts, you could argue his contract blocked them from ever being able to offer Juan Soto a great deal.
10. Aaron Judge, Manny Machado, Trea Turner
Every few years, an absolute megastar of a player is primed and ready for free agency. Almost every time this happens, the player is 30 years old. In Judge’s case, his new contract will run from the age of 31 to 39 seasons. Want to know some other All-Time great who started a massive contract at 31? Albert Pujols and Miguel Cabrera.
Cabrera would go on and average 0.3 bWAR a year throughout his deal. Pujols was a little better, with 1.3 bWAR a year.
I know I will catch heat if I just put Aaron Judge, which is fair. So, I put Machado, Judge, and Turner. All their deals will run until they are 40, and so far, history has shown us that Father Time is undefeated.
Editors Note: For those who want to point out Joey Votto, he signed his extension when he was 28 years old. While solid, his age 34-40 seasons were meh.
9. Mike Trout – Los Angeles Angels
Contract: 12 years, $426.5 million (signed in 2019, ends after 2030)
Trout signed his contract extension with the Angels at the age of 27, with the money boosting to $37 million once he turned 29. Of course, Trout has been unable to stay on the field, making it almost impossible for the Angels to move his contract. However, unlike many players on this list, Trout still performs when on the field. He just can’t stay on the field.
8. Giancarlo Stanton – New York Yankees
Contract: 13 years, $325 million (signed in 2014, ends after 2027)
Can we just take a moment and rewind to the ALCS, where Yankee fans were screaming from the rooftops that Stanton was a HOF lock and one of the greatest postseason hitters of all time? Sometimes, I go back and look at those posts and giggle at all the Yankee fans all of a sudden putting the Yankees winning the World Series on the back of Giancarlo Stanton.
His contract situation is weird. He signed the extension with the Marlins and then got traded to the Yankees, who inherited it. He signed it at 25, which is younger than when Soto signed his mega deal. So far, his ages 29-34 seasons have been subpar, bringing down his average bWAR per season of this contract to 2.3.
On the slight bright side, his salary will drop to $19 million for the last two seasons.
7. Javier Báez – Detroit Tigers
Contract: 6 years, $140 million (signed in 2021, ends after 2027)
Remember that really cool defensive play Baez made a few years back? That will be the highlight of his career.
6. Trevor Story – Boston Red Sox
Contract: 6 years, $140 million (signed in 2022, ends after 2027)
The Red Sox have signed some terrible free agents in the last 20 years. Pablo Sandoval, Carl Crawford, and Hanley Ramirez, to name a few. Trevor Story will now join that list. He has yet to play 100 games in a season and, while still serviceable at SS, has been a below-average hitter across the board.
Go back and read some articles and posts from 2022. I never felt like the Front Office wanted to sign Story. They knew what they had and probably saw the writing on the wall as Story was about to turn 30 and was nursing an injured elbow. However, players and Red Sox Nation forced the issue, and they caved.
Not only is his contract a roadblock to the team signing free agents. He is also now in a crowded infield with top prospects waiting to slide in.
5. Carlos Rodon- New York Yankees
Contact: 6 year, $162 million (signed in 2022, ends after 2028)
Crazy that two good seasons in your late 20s will get you this type of contract, but that is exactly what happened with Rodon.
Has averaged 0.5 bWAR two years into the contract. He “rebounded” this season with a 104 ERA+.
Have fun New York.
4. Kris Bryant – Colorado Rockies
Contract: 7 years, $182 million (signed in 2022, ends after 2028)
When it is all said and done, Kris Bryant will probably have the worst contract out of anyone in the “Top 50 Contracts Of All-Time.” He is currently averaging - 0.4 bWAR, which is already the worst ever.
However, unlike the players below, the Rockies have been terrible for his entire contract and have no hope in sight. The players below, have gotten in the way of their team, are mean, or both.
3. Xander Bogaerts – San Diego Padres
Contract: 11 years, $280 million (signed in 2022, ends after 2033)
Xander Bogaerts signed this deal when you guessed it, he was 30 years old.
I will never hold a grudge against Xander Bogaerts for leaving Boston. I will also never hold a grudge against the Red Sox for letting him walk. He wanted and knew he could get a massive deal. The Red Sox knew they were going to have to extend Devers and wanted to pair him with someone not over 30 years old.
Kudos to the Padres for going all in and trying to win when they had Soto.
Currently, Xander is averaging 2.8 bWAR over the first two seasons of the contract. Expect that to contn=inue to regress.
2. Carlos Correa – Minnesota Twins
Contract: 6 years, $200 million (signed in 2023, ends after 2028)
Correa’s contract is a mess and could go as far as 2032. I am putting him this high because I can never comprehend how he continued to get contracts after all the craziness a few years ago.
Shout out to the Twins in the sense that he will never hit any of his vesting options, so they only need to deal with this contract for three more years rather than seven.
1. Anthony Rendon – Los Angeles Angels
Contract: 7 years, $245 million (signed in 2019, ends after 2026)
Say what you want about this list, but everyone above is (at least on the surface) overall good people. Even those who have signed massive contracts and played terrible will acknowledge the fact that they suck.
Then there is Anthony Rendon. Not only has he averaged a measily 0.7 bWAR, he has been an ******e about it the entire time. In terms of average bWAR for the “Top 50 contracts of All-Time”, Rendon will go down as a bottom five contract.
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