Patience is a virtue - Prudentius
-Kevin Lee
The Mets, after Steve Cohen gaslighted us to believe that they were done with moves ahead of the 2024 season, were able to secure a 1-year deal for J.D. Martinez for $12 million. Even juicier is the fact that only $4.5 million is truly on the books for Martinez, with the rest of the money being deferred in 2034 - 2038. We knew that Cohen was going to only spend on the right moves this off-season, with the luxury tax penalty still looming large, and at that price, J.D. Martinez is a steal.
We hear all these platitudes thrown around about J.D. - “he’s a professional hitter,” “he’s a student of the game”, etc. - so I won’t bore you with that. We also know that this now gives Pete Alonso legitimate protection in the lineup, so I won’t go dive into that either. But here’s why, as a Mets fan, I am very excited about this move. First off, here’s his 2023 Baseball Savant summary:
Looks like loving J.D.’s hitting was RED (sorry, using this joke again). Even if there is some drop-off due to this being his age 36 season, he’s dropping off from the absolute peak. Two things I particularly love:
97th percentile Sweet Spot % - this tells me that Martinez’s bat control and swing mechanics are incredibly refined, as he consistently is putting optimal launch angles on his batted ball events
98th percentile Barrel % - the sweet, sweet lovechild of Hard Hit % and Sweet Spot %. Martinez is able to get his A-swing off and launch the ball with high hit probability (Brett Baty take notes here).
Second, J.D. Martinez is a bona-fide lefty masher. The Mets, for some reason, always seem to struggle against lefties. I’ve watched way too many games where where it seems like Patrick Corbin - of all people - looked like he’d get the best of us. Last year, Martinez slashed .274 / .333 / .581 vs. left-handed pitchers, culminating in a wrC+ of 143. Its hard to believe that a wrC+ of 143 is actually underperforming his career versus LHP of 151. His bat should provide some well-needed stability to a lineup that had an abysmal aggregate OPS+ of 81 versus left-handed starters last year (note: wrC+ is park adjusted, OPS+ is not).
So, J.D. Martinez caps off an under-the-radar offseason for the Mets who go into the season as a legitimate Wild Card contender and less-of-a-pipe-dream Division Winner. While I liked Vientos a lot going in - I still think he can be a legitimate big league power threat - Martinez provides a very dangerous threat in the lineup that is hard to overlook. It’s a move that Mets fans have been clamoring for for years, and through David Stearns’ savvy, it’s a move that Mets fans won’t be suffering through in the years to come.
- KL
P.S. In case you missed it, here are our MLB award predictions. Look forward to seeing our division winner picks and World Series predictions shortly.