It’s my second year in a row selecting a few MLB hitters I “like” to break out. Inspired by Foolish Baseball’s YouTube videos, this is a fun exercise that gets my baseball brain going, and hopefully yours.
In 2024, I chose SS CJ Abrams, OF Wilyer Abreu, and INF Tyler Black to enjoy true breakout seasons. While I’d like to take some credit for being on top of Abrams and Abreu’s great play, Black appeared in just 18 MLB games last season. That was a miss.
As usual, I’ll try to stay away from big-name players and obvious breakouts (such as James Wood or Jackson Holliday).
1. Tyler Soderstrom — Athletics
The A’s No. 1 prospect in 2023, Soderstrom graduated from that alias this past spring. Physical, 6’2”, and 200 pounds, this strong first-baseman got his initial taste of MLB action during ‘23, yet struggled to gain any ground with a .472 OPS, and three HR across 138 plate appearances.
In 2024, Soderstrom took advantage of more opportunities, playing in May, June, July, and September to accumulate 213 PAs. He clocked nine HRs last year and posted an OPS of .744 — not setting the world on fire by any means, but a vast improvement. He was especially stellar in June and August where he clubbed eight of those nine dingers, and had an OPS in the mid-800s.
One thing I like about Soderstrom entering 2025 is his projected role. The 23-year-old is slated to be the Athletics every day 1B… this should allocate to 500+ plate appearances if he stays healthy.
Another big key is Soderstrom’s new home ballpark. As we know, the A’s are amid a relocation and will be holding their home games in Sacramento (a Triple-A field) for the foreseeable future. Soderstrom should benefit from the park’s hitter-friendly environment.
Lastly, his Savant underlying metrics look great. While he wasn’t qualified, he hit his way to a .348 xwOBA, .480 xSLG, 14.6 barrel%, 49.6 hardhit%, and 91.9 mph average exit velocity. That’s more than enough for me to be all in.
2. Matt Wallner — Twins
If you follow me on Twitter, this pick shouldn’t come as a surprise. In fact, in general, it probably shouldn’t come as a surprise. Wallner was great when given the chance to play in ‘24, the man grabbed an .895 OPS.
While this looks like a true breakout at a glance, he only came up to the dish 261 times. Not nearly enough for full assumptions to be made. I was very surprised when Minnesota started him in Triple-A to begin 2024.
The left-handed hitter’s splits are typical for his powerful profile. Wallner punished RHPs last year, with 12 HR, and a 953 OPS. In only 38 ABs vs southpaws, he struggled mightily with just one HR and a .611 OPS.
I believe the Twins signed Harrison Bader to help Wallner stick in his true platoon role, and while he won’t be playing *every* game for the Twins this year, he’s going to get enough plate appearances to make a true impact.
Much like Soderstrom, Wallner’s Savant profile is a thing of beauty. His average exit velocity was 92.8 mph, with a 17.5 barrel rate. Combine his elite bat speed with an age-27 season, he has All-Star potential.
3. Jung Hoo Lee — Giants
Lee had a decent start to his rookie campaign until it abruptly ended after crashing into a wall while going for a fly ball. Unfortunately for the speedster, labrum surgery was required, and he only played 37 games in 2024.
The good news for Lee? He is fully healthy and is projected to be the Giants’ everyday centerfielder and leadoff stick this season. This should give him more than enough opportunity to prove he can stick.
Sure, his OPS+ in ‘24 was just 86, with a .310 OBP, but Lee can flat-out play. He displayed a cool 11-game hit streak towards the end of April and squared up 37.1% of his batted balls.
The 26-year-old’s last five seasons in the KBO displayed a positive BB/K ratio, and plate discipline always translates. MLB pitching didn’t seem to fool him, his 8.2 K%, and 9.6 whiff% are Luis Arraez and Steven Kwan-like.
Although the average exit velocities and slugging numbers weren’t anything special, I’m banking on Lee to only get better with time and experience. With his wheels, the large Oracle outfield should help turn singles into doubles. There is a lot to like here.
Great Job Sam