The 2026 MLB Trade Deadline arrives on Monday, August 3, at 6 pm. So far, nothing has happened. Twenty-four teams are within 6 1/2 games of a postseason spot, leaving many deciding whether to be buyers or sellers this week.
The Angels, Athletics, Giants, Mets, Rockies and Royals are already positioned as the clearest sellers, and all have pieces that teams desire.
This is not strictly a ranking of the ten players most certain to be traded. There will be middle relievers, bench bats and expiring veterans who move with far less attention.
These are the ten impact players that I think could shape the deadline.
1. Luis Arraez — 2B, San Francisco Giants
Trade Probability: 95%
My Thoughts: Luis Arraez feels like the closest thing this deadline has to a guaranteed trade.
The Giants are firmly out of contention, and Arraez is approaching free agency. He has also bounced back in a major way and is having a career year on top of an already great career.
He does not provide zero power, but contenders know exactly what they would be getting: a guy who gets on base and walks more than he strikes out.
San Francisco has almost no reason to hold him through August.
Best Fits: Tampa Bay Rays, Texas Rangers, New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox (RIP Curtis Mead)
2. Freddy Peralta — SP, New York Mets
Trade Probability: 88%
My Thoughts: The Mets are prepared to sell, and Freddy Peralta is the most obvious player for them to move.
Like Arraez, Peralta is an impending free agent with an affordable remaining salary and a long history of missing bats. He has been terrible in 2026 (something people around the league reportedly blame on the Mets), but there is a track record that will entice teams to take a chance.
Teams would hope that a change of scenery would bring back the 2025 Peralta in time for a playoff run.
The Mets have little incentive to keep an expiring starter while sitting near the bottom of the standings. Maybe eat a little money and get some prospects.
Best Fits: Milwaukee Brewers, Chicago Cubs, Atlanta Braves, Philadelphia Phillies
3. Antonio Senzatela — RP, Colorado Rockies
Trade Probability: 86%
My Thoughts: Moving Antonio Senzatela into the bullpen has completely changed his value.
After years of injuries and inconsistency as a starting pitcher, Senzatela has found new life in shorter appearances.
His contract is not completely insignificant. Senzatela is earning $12 million this season, and an acquiring team would owe roughly $4 million over the final two months. His deal also includes a $14 million club option for 2027.
That option could actually increase his appeal. A team can treat him as a rental, decline the option after the season, or retain him if he proves himself and they need the depth.
Colorado is rebuilding, and a 31-year-old reliever has more value to the Rockies as a trade chip than as part of their long-term plan.
Best Fits: Texas Rangers, Arizona Diamondbacks, Seattle Mariners
4. Casey Mize — SP, Detroit Tigers
Trade Probability: 68%
My Thoughts: Tarik Skubal may be the biggest name in Detroit, but Casey Mize could be the Tigers starter who is easier to trade.
Mize is in the middle of the best season of his career, carrying a 2.70 ERA and 0.99 WHIP. Like Skubal, he is also an impending free agent, and an acquiring team would owe only a small portion of his $6.15 million salary.
Detroit’s recent series loss to the Royals complicates things. They are currently 3.5 GB of the Wild Card and 5.0 GB of the division. On paper, and analytics like X-W/L, they are arguably the best team in the division. But they haven’t played like it, and letting Mize and Skubal walk for nothing would be a huge mistake.
However, the Tigers could also split the difference.
They could keep Skubal, move Mize and use the return to strengthen the organization beyond this season. Mize would also be an attractive alternative for teams that need starting pitching but cannot meet Detroit’s enormous asking price for Skubal.
Best Fits: Milwaukee Brewers, Atlanta Braves, Chicago Cubs, Philadelphia Phillies
5. Reid Detmers — SP, Los Angeles Angels
Trade Probability: 65%
My Thoughts: If you can get Reid Detmers, you are getting him for another two years after this season. The Angels have seemingly made him available, and teams might want to see what he looks like, well, not on the Angels.
He had a 3.12 FIP last year and is carrying a 3.36 right now. He gets a lot of swings and misses and has a very appealing 10.2 K/9 rate.
Los Angeles desperately needs to improve its farm system, and Detmers is one of the few players on the roster capable of returning multiple meaningful young pieces.
Best Fits: Chicago White Sox, Chicago Cubs, Los Angeles Dodgers, Cleveland Guardians
6. Ryan Jeffers — C, Minnesota Twins
Trade Probability: 64%
My Thoughts: Back to rentals with Jeffers, who is having a career year by every metric. Catching is probably the weakest position to be found at the deadline, especially with Langeliers' injury. That makes Ryan Jeffers one of the most interesting position players on the market, provided Minnesota decides to sell.
The Twins are above .500, 2.0 GB of the division, and only 0.5 GB of the Wild Card. But they are mid; just take a look at this chart below.
I thought maybe it was a www.statsoldier.com bug at first, but no, the Twins offense is just the definition of league average.
So, let's assume the Twins take the middle road and Buy/Sell; Jeffers would make the most sense. Besides being a rental, they would be selling at a high.
Best Fits: New York Yankees, Tampa Bay Rays, Boston Red Sox
7. Luis Robert Jr. — CF, New York Mets
Trade Probability: 55%
My Thoughts: It wouldn’t be a trade deadline without talking about Luis Robert Jr.
His 2026 season has not gone according to plan. A back injury cost him nearly three months, and the Mets are kicking themselves for taking his whole contract.
However, Robert is back and has homered twice since his return last week. Don’t look at any other metric, just those two home runs.
The appeal is obvious. A rental who hit 40 home runs three years ago, but has a club option if you want to roll the dice.
Robert is the riskiest player on this list. He also has massive upside and, at the very least, is a proven defensive center fielder.
Best Fits: Philadelphia Phillies, Atlanta Braves, Cleveland Guardians, Houston Astros
8. Tarik Skubal — SP, Detroit Tigers
Trade Probability: 50%
My Thoughts: Without Tarik Skubal, there would be very little to talk about this deadline. Publications NEED drama and big-name players to talk about to drive eyes towards them. For two years now, that has been Tarik Skubal.
The back-to-back American League Cy Young Award winner has looked healthy since returning from minor elbow surgery, quickly reestablishing himself as a Top 5 pitcher in baseball.
Every contender wants him. Very few contenders can meet Detroit’s price. (Just a note: Detroit is afraid of that as well.)
The Tigers reportedly want a young, MLB-ready starting pitcher as the centerpiece of any Skubal package. That would allow Detroit to remain competitive while getting a return for a guy who will most definetly be leaving this off-season.
A Skubal trade would instantly alter the balance of power in October.
Best Fits: Philadelphia Phillies, Los Angeles Dodgers, Atlanta Braves, Tampa Bay Rays
9. Seth Lugo — SP, Kansas City Royals
Trade Probability: 35%
My Thoughts: There was a report earlier this month that the ask for Seth Lugo is “massive.” It shouldn’t be, and I think Michael Wacha should be the player teams are chasing, but it is more likely that Lugo will get moved.
Kansas City controls Lugo through at least 2027, when he is scheduled to earn $20 million. His contract also contains a $17 million club option for 2028. That gives the Royals some leverage, and an opportunity to dump some money (in my opinion)
Starting pitching is so thin, with contenders desperate for innings, that Lugo becomes more valuable than he probably should be. I mean, look at these scores…
Any trade would probably be an overpay.
Best Fits: Toronto Blue Jays, Chicago Cubs, Philadelphia Phillies
10. Mason Miller — RP, San Diego Padres
Trade Probability: 28%
My Thoughts: The San Diego Padres love making big moves at the deadline that don’t make sense. Mason Miller is this deadline’s mistake.
The Padres acquired him less than one year ago, and he is the best closer in baseball. They also gave up arguably the best prospect in baseball to get him, and they are probably feeling buyer’s remorse.
Miller is earning $4 million this season and remains under club control for three additional arbitration years. In their eyes, they could get back two Top 100 prospects, which for an aging team is probably the right move.
Best Fits: New York Yankees, Seattle Mariners
Final Thoughts
I don’t even know why I put percentages; I just saw other people do it, so I figured I'd do the same. I actually had ChatGPT come up with the percentages based on contract, rumors, and stats. Just like the humans who came up with these percentages, AI had no idea either and just threw random numbers at me.
There are plenty of other important players who could get moved by this deadline, but in my research I found that these 10 are the most likely to go (honestly, not Lugo; I should remove him, but I am tired).
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