Well, it is time for me to move on from primarily writing about the Red Sox. I will share more thoughts on the series against the Yankees when I release my “Red Sox Offseason Outlook” article in the coming weeks.
But the playoffs move on, and so do I.
New York, Chicago, and San Diego swept their Wild Card Series. Their reward is an extra day of rest
I wanted to see how these teams match up analytically (sorry, Willson Contreras) and how they performed against one another during the regular season. Yeah, I will take into account the Yankees bullying the Red Sox over the last two days, but Tampa isn’t Boston, so I won’t weigh that too much.
Yankees and Rays
The Yankees scored 18 runs against Boston in two games. Congratulations, I am in pain. Tampa Bay brings a very different test, particularly when it puts the ball in play, something Boston did not do all series.
Tampa Bay narrowly took the season series 7-6 over the Yankees. However, New York showed slightly more firepower, outscoring the Rays 54-45. The Rays took the first four meetings, but the Yankees took three of the final four games in late September at Yankee Stadium.
The nine-run Yankees advantage needs context, too. Their 12–4 win on July 9 accounts for eight of it. Across the other 12 games, the scoring difference was one run. So, really tight games across the entire season.
Their scoring rates were nearly identical, 4.59 and 4.54 runs per game, even though the Yankees hit 223 home runs to the Rays’ 169. Tampa Bay struck out in 18.8% of its plate appearances; New York struck out in 24.7%. The Rays have to make the pitcher work through innings, something Boston also couldn't do.
My X-factor is Junior Caminero (boring). He is a bona fide star, but only has two postseason at-bats. Had a .771 OPS in September, which is a little concerning, I guess, if you are looking at recent production. I say that only because the Red Sox's terrible September carried into the playoff series. Overall, the team was 16-9 in September, so I am not overall concerned.
Prediction: A strong September, a superstar, great pitching, and a few extra days' rest? I am going Tampa Bay Rays in 5.
White Sox and Guardians
The series I plan to set aside time to really watch has to be this one.
As a good Catholic boy, I have to follow Pope Leo XIV on this one. Also, Munetaka Murakami’s energy is contagious. Also, I wrote Andrew Benintendi a handwritten letter ten years ago, but his agent got it, and then that agent was under investigation for keeping cameras in his shower. Why is that relevant? Because I may have been one of the last things Andrew and that agent talked about. Feels like there is some sort of bond there.
The White Sox won the season series 7–6 and outscored the Guardians 58–57. Eleven of the 13 games were decided by three runs or fewer, including seven one-run games. Cleveland took two of three in the final series on September 14–16.
Sean Burke is the individual I would circle. In three starts against Cleveland, he allowed two earned runs over 17⅓ innings, with 21 strikeouts and three walks. That is a 1.04 ERA. For a guy who said two days ago, “This is my life. No family—no girl, no kids. This is all I do.” I would be pretty worried if I was a Cleveland fan.
Chicago hit 211 home runs, compared with Cleveland’s 162. Miguel Vargas supplied 33 with an .837 OPS and 101 walks. Munetaka Murakami hit 35, and Colson Montgomery added 31. The latter two also combined for 423 strikeouts in 1,191 plate appearances, a 35.5% strikeout rate.
The biggest roadblock for Chicago is Cleveland’s two “ace-adjacent” pitchers.
Gavin Williams struck out 248 batters in 184⅓ innings, or 33.2% of the hitters he faced. He also allowed 28 home runs. Parker Messick had a 2.56 ERA in 186⅓ innings. Against the White Sox, he allowed eight earned runs in 25⅔ innings, a 2.81 ERA. \
It was just announced that Messick would pitch Game 1 and Williams would pitch game two. No easy bullpen game for the White Sox to go up against.
My X-factor is José Ramírez, who is just an older Junior Caminero in a lot of ways. Cleveland didn’t have Ramírez for much of the year, and he batted below the Mendoza line for September and had an OPS below .700 for the year.
Prediction: White Sox in four. I believe in momentum, and the White Sox have momentum right now. I think the moment might be a lot for Parker Messick in Game One, and the White Sox have shown they can pounce early.
Padres and Brewers
Milwaukee was the best team in MLB during the regular season. They have the best pitcher on the planet right now, and overall I would say the most complete team (sorry Dodgers, you are banged up)
San Diego, on the other hand, has taken an 18-6 September and slapped the Cubs around in two games.
San Diego went 4–2 against Milwaukee, with a 26–21 scoring advantage. The Brewers took two of three at home on May 12–14. The Padres swept the return series at Petco Park on August 10–12, winning 3–2, 11–2, and 4–3. That nine-run victory did much of the work in the aggregate; Milwaukee outscored San Diego by four in the other five games.
One particularly useful point of context came on May 13. Jacob Misiorowski threw seven scoreless innings with 10 strikeouts and no walks, and Milwaukee still lost 3–1. Michael King allowed one run in 5⅔ innings on the other side. Neither pitcher matched up against the opposing team in the second series.
Misiorowski finished with a 1.80 ERA and 252 strikeouts in 174⅔ innings. He struck out 37.9% of the hitters he faced. Logan Henderson had a 2.47 ERA, 110 strikeouts, and 19 walks in 98⅓ innings. Milwaukee has announced that those two will start the opening games.
For San Diego, the goal is to keep the game within reach until the relief matchups arrive. Miller struck out 129 of 272 batters, a 47.4% rate, while allowing three home runs in 70 innings. Easier said than done, and I just don’t know how you can feel good rolling out either a bullpen, Walker Buehler, or Robbie Ray in Game One.
My X-factor is Logan Henderson. He was excellent this season and already put in a quality start against the Padres.
Prediction: Brewers in four. Milwaukee’s ability to reach base and its top two starters give it the edge. I just don’t love the San Diego pitching, and if the bullpen gets worked heavy in Games One and Two, it will be tough to bounce back.
Dodgers and Braves
The Braves won five of six, outscoring Los Angeles 26–15. They even swept the Dodgers in August. Although all those games were decided by one run, it wasn’t in a dominating fashion.
In terms of who stood out during the regular season, everyone is talking about Chris Sale's performance. In two starts against the Dodgers, he threw 16 innings, allowed two earned runs, struck out 18, and walked nobody.
Sale finished the year with a 2.16 ERA and 200 strikeouts against 31 walks in 162⅔ innings. Tyler Mahle supplied a 1.99 ERA in 54⅓ innings after joining Atlanta. Mahle is dealing with abdominal issues, so keep an eye on that. Heck, they had to use an opener in Game 3 against the Phillies.
Los Angeles is as healthy as they are going to be coming into the series. About half the team is recovering from IL stints, so these extra days off were definetly needed.
While the Braves have a fringe Top 10 offense in baseball, no one has a clear answer for the Skubal/Yamamoto/Snell/Glasnow combination.
My X-factor is Ronald Acuña Jr. He has never really shone on the postseason stage, and if the Braves want any chance, he will have to in this series.
Conditional prediction: Dodgers in four. Atlanta gives the Dodgers more of a fight than